From Soldat und Technik
Bei der ukrainischen Kursk-Offensive und der russischen Gegenoffensive hat es zuletzt trotz anhaltend schwerer Kämpfe keine bestätigten Änderungen des Frontverlaufs gegeben. Russische Militärblogger berichteten zwar, dass eigene Truppen in Richtung Malaja Loknja in einem Waldgebiet sowie dem...
soldat-und-technik.de
(Soldier & Technology)
Situation picture of the Kursk Offensive on December 03 at 21:00 CET.
Ukrainian Kursk Offensive - 17th week
December 4, 2024
There have been no confirmed changes to the front line of the Ukrainian Kursk offensive and the Russian counter-offensive recently, despite ongoing heavy fighting. Although Russian military bloggers have reported that their own troops have advanced towards Malaya Loknya in a wooded area and the village of Novoivanovka, this has not yet been documented. In any case, the terrain gained would be minimal. This means that the fronts remain largely at a standstill since Russian forces were able to advance on Malaya Loknya from the north three weeks ago, but were pushed back in the west.
It is unclear whether this is due to external circumstances such as winter weather conditions or possibly Ukrainian attacks on command and logistics facilities in the Russian hinterland since the use of Western precision weapons was authorized for this purpose. Interestingly, in recent days Ukraine has also managed to reclaim some of the territory further south that Russia occupied in May during its own cross-border offensive from Belgorod Oblast towards Kharkiv.
False reports from Russian commanders
Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to advance slowly but unabated in the Donbas. However, they have still not been able to take the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, thus opening a path into the open lowlands of the Donetsk region. In the Luhansk region, on the other hand, which is now completely controlled by Russia apart from a few small sections, there was recently a scandal involving false reports by Russian commanders.
They had claimed to have taken villages near Sivorsk which, upon inspection by higher authorities, turned out to still be held by Ukrainians. As a result, several officers were allegedly arrested and at least one brigade commander and the commander of the Southern Military District, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, were replaced.
Significance of the Kursk offensive in a possible Trump initiative
In the meantime, Ukraine and its Western supporters appear to be seriously preparing for a ceasefire initiative by re-elected US President Donald Trump after he takes office on January 20 next year. This would once again emphasize the importance of the Russian territory occupied by the Kursk offensive as a bargaining chip. It would therefore be logical for Ukraine to hold on to it even at the expense of its defense in the Donbas and to secure it by releasing Western precision weapons.
The conspicuous lack of criticism from Trump's official transition team of the release by outgoing President Joe Biden, even the emphasis on good cooperation, suggests that this was done in coordination between the two sides. Trump can also have no interest in a "bad deal" at the expense of Ukraine, which would make him and the USA look weak. The appointment of security policy "hawk" Keith Kellogg as his future Ukraine envoy points in the same direction.
Pro-Russian commentators are now also assuming that Trump will not simply stop American support, but that his threat to increase it further if Russia is unwilling to negotiate is quite serious. Should this come to pass, a freeze of the front on Russian territory as a result of the Kursk offensive would be unacceptable for Moscow, which would have to result in either additional US aid or negotiations on an exchange of occupied territories.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)