@Chazman

Three days ago, this looked like a border raid to create chaos, discredit Putin's rule and lift morale in Ukraine.

Two days ago, it looked like this was a diversion to end the Russian push on Charkiw.

Yesterday, it'd looked likey they meant to make the frontline shorter by cutting off that bulge of the border between Kursk and Belgorod.

Today, there's a real chance that Ukraine actually keeps a substantial chunk of Russia occupied for a substantial amount of time.

And that time might be longer than many people think. With the ability to use conscripts, Russia has a massive superiority in manpower, but they don't have the equipment. It's all in Ukraine, especially their tanks and anti-air. If the Ukrainians manage to hold on to their gains, at least the push onto Charkiw will have to be abandoned, and there'll probably even be diversions from other parts of the frontline, slowing them down there. The defenders are Kadyrov's clowns, demotivated conscripts and +40-year-old mobiks who've sat there on their arses for almost two years. And they're facing combat hardened troops with Strykers and Leopard 2 tanks.

This is not a raid, it's an invasion, and it won't be over anytime soon. Even if this operation goes south for Ukraine, it won't be over for weeks.

Rybar and Fighterbomber are in full-on panic mode right now, it's genuinely hilarious.

But what they tell their followers is also legitimately scary. It seems as if the Ukrainians advance under a cover of electronic warfare assets, mobile SAMs and a shitton of drones. They take out all Russian drones, advance with their own drones, and subsequently their mechanised infantry follows to destroy what little has managed to survive the drones. I read claims that a Russian infantry company was attacked by 90 FPV drones over a one-hour period. Can you imagine the sheer terror? Jesus Christ.

Let's not underestimate the enemy. The last incursions into Russian territory came to nothing and several Ukrainian soldiers died.
I hope that there is a good plan being carried out right now. Russia can call up more recruits in this region and let's face it, they have the men for it. But yeah, again, a pretty embarassment for the second strongest army.
Slava Ukraina.
 
Let's not underestimate the enemy. The last incursions into Russian territory came to nothing and several Ukrainian soldiers died.
I hope that there is a good plan being carried out right now. Russia can call up more recruits in this region and let's face it, they have the men for it. But yeah, again, a pretty embarassment for the second strongest army.
Slava Ukraina.
Men they can get, and probably small arms. But I'm doubtful the are sat with 1000's of rounds, once they burn through their 4-6 clips, they are on there own. Also most of these will be conscripts, so again doubtful they were issued with any live rounds...

But armour/arty etc, its all been sent into Ukraine, maybe they can divert this weeks 'new' tanks, but thats going to give them 10?

Ukr seems pretty well planned, drones first, then the ground units. And now we see where the marders, CV90 etc were doing....

And hopefully we will see the armoured cavalry with the heavy wheeled units playing in the russian rear.

just a reminder that Russia's task is to attack in Ukraine, not defend in Russia.....
 
Let's not underestimate the enemy. The last incursions into Russian territory came to nothing and several Ukrainian soldiers died.
I hope that there is a good plan being carried out right now. Russia can call up more recruits in this region and let's face it, they have the men for it. But yeah, again, a pretty embarassment for the second strongest army.
Slava Ukraina.
Came to nothing? They were company sized probing attacks which managed to penetrate the border and took the russians more than 24 hrs to properly react to.

Not every attack is meant to seize and hold ground.
 
Battle experienced troops available inside Russia or only conscripts trained to Russian standards?

Putler now has to do some calculations.

What to sacrifice as he can't keep his rag tag empire together and conquer Ukraine and challenge the West all at once.

Or open the Ukraine front somewhere.
 
Interesting that Volodymir has decided Russia needed to get a taste of their own medicine.

From a military strategy POV, it does seem bizarre to invade the Kursk oblast with as muck said plenty of pro-Ukrainians troops or mercenaries that are not even Ukrainians.

There has to be a plan behind, surely Putin wasn’t expecting this, after a string of failed attempts over the past two years.

Again, for those that believe we should have a « morale compass » about this and UKR should only ever defend their territory: how about you stick that up your arse? It’s Putin and his ministers, the Duma war. Ukraine has a right to disperse its forces and cause chaos on Russian troops. Fair is fair and deal with it.
 
Let's not underestimate the enemy. The last incursions into Russian territory came to nothing and several Ukrainian soldiers died.
I hope that there is a good plan being carried out right now. Russia can call up more recruits in this region and let's face it, they have the men for it. But yeah, again, a pretty embarassment for the second strongest army.
Slava Ukraina.

But how fast and effective can they call them up and arm them? What are those units worth?

Let's wait and see if it's well planned it can even be expanded...
 
It's magnificent what they have done, but logistics become increasingly important with how far you go

It would seem useess if this was just to make a point. I don't think it is and maybe the full picture will come clearer later.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
 
Last edited:
But how fast and effective can they call them up and arm them? What are those units worth?

Let's wait and see if it's well planned it can even be expanded...
Ukraine doesn't even have to hold any territory. Punch/slip through, cause PR damage to Putler and destroy as much infrastructure as you can before falling back before they can mount a proper response, leaving the terrain littered with AP and AT mines.

Up until now it used to be Ukraine who needed to keep troops stationed in mass all along the border, now russia will have to do the same unless they want to have their infrastructure demolished not just by light drones. In the north it's mostly russia attacking so they'll need to station a lot more troops to create a credible offensive and defensive threat compared to Ukraine.

Forcing the russians to choose between diverting troops from Donbas or ignoring the situation in Kursk by allowing Ukraine to occupy russian territory for a longer period of time (= massive loss of face for Putler, zero chance of this option in a dictatorship) has to be the real objective here, not seizing the NPP or Kursk itself (no matter how epic the memes would be).
 
Interesting that Volodymir has decided Russia needed to get a taste of their own medicine.

From a military strategy POV, it does seem bizarre to invade the Kursk oblast with as muck said plenty of pro-Ukrainians troops or mercenaries that are not even Ukrainians.

There has to be a plan behind, surely Putin wasn’t expecting this, after a string of failed attempts over the past two years.

Again, for those that believe we should have a « morale compass » about this and UKR should only ever defend their territory: how about you stick that up your arse? It’s Putin and his ministers, the Duma war. Ukraine has a right to disperse its forces and cause chaos on Russian troops. Fair is fair and deal with it.
The ukraine battlefields are almost WW1. Trench systems, all guns/tanks/APC are dug in, and venture out rarely. Ukr tried last year to assault, and it went badly for them. Russia tried again this year, and it likewise went bad, not that they care about the loss of bodies.

Ukr took a look at the map, and the rules, and said why not. Russia is 90% naked, each month it needs 20,000 live bodies, needs to clean 20,000 rifles, and patch 20,000 uniforms. Oh and you also get 2 potatoes, and 1 litre of best russian water.

A good sized attack into sparsely populated and poorly defended territory, combined with russian reliance on rail, and the inbuilt lying, stealing etc means its a real problem for Russia.

I'm sure had ukr found 2 Russian Tank regiments there, they would have driven straight back to Ukr. But they didnt, and they appear to be kicking ass to the sturmgroupen troops russia can throw in, without drone cover, and more crucially without experience of combat/drones etc.

And just like Russia's 3 day plan, the drive from the border to Kiev should be 4-5 hours, Ukr demonstrates the drive from ukr border to the nuke power plant is 3-4 hours.

Probably a really good example of not planning or thinking things through, prior to launching a war.
 
At the moment, it seems improbable Putler can do much other than send in museum grade T-62s and the few APCs that will start. Supporting those so far looks like mostly Chechens and Wagnerites whose motivation is highly suspect on their best day. They seem to be best used as blocking forces to keep meat assaults going in the preferred direction.

I look for a fresh draft of mobiks to be used in meat assaults... with the usual result.
 
Just a side note:

Cutting off power delivery from the Kursk nuclear plant, would render 70% of regional rail inoperable. Also, IF Ukranian forces could encircle Belgorod, they would cork up 100,000 Russian troops.

Something to ponder.
 
Here's an interesting vid relating to mine warfare.
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
 
TLDR: Huh. What are they really up to?


Full Drunken Rambling:

We convened and emergency meeting of the Armchair Forces Joint Chumps of Staff. And to underline the gravity of the situation it wasn't even happy hour. We had to pay full price for drinks.

This is only the third Ukrainian attempt to mount an elective ground operation. The initial rollback pursuit of Russian forces, Vulhedar, and now this. We didn't include the Dniepr river operation.

The Ukrainians have sustained for three days plus, and over significant ground. This means the logistics operation is bigger than predicted. How much further can they take this?

Possibility 1: Multiple people have speculated on a grand Left Hook. Remember a left hook is a left-handed strike around the guard that punches toward the right. If they even try this, their logistics have become better than anybody thinks.

Possibility 2: This is political strategy, not tactical maneuver. Seems entirely possible. And it will be a decisive victory if the Ukrainians can engage and then disengage without taking significant casualties or loss of combat effectiveness of the units involved.

Possibility 3: This wasn't the plan. The Ukrainians had a plan to strike, and they punched total air, command told them to continue the push until they meet resistance. So they had the logistics locked and loaded just in case?

However this is becoming in one way similar to the Dniepr crossings. The Russians cannot ignore this.
 
Tactics of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region of Russia. Mikhail Zvinchuk, the author of the project "Rybar", published a video of the tactics of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region of Russia. According to him, Ukrainian troops entered in small groups of three to six armored vehicles. Tactics of action, a third of the group pins down a Russian stronghold, others bypass it, entering nearby settlements and organizing ambushes on the roads, mining them.
Russian reinforcements are attacked, after which the Ukrainian group leaves the village. Thus, it seems that many villages are controlled by the Ukrainian army. Which can lead to panic and misinterpretation of the military situation on the ground.
Let me remind you that the Ukrainian army, numbering up to a thousand people, attacked the border area of the Kursk region of Russia on August 6 at 5:30 am. Military operations in the Kursk region continue, the Russian army is pulling in reserves.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
 
Just a side note:

Cutting off power delivery from the Kursk nuclear plant, would render 70% of regional rail inoperable. Also, IF Ukranian forces could encircle Belgorod, they would cork up 100,000 Russian troops.

Something to ponder.
Your wish is granted:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
 

Similar threads

Back
Top