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If the Russian A50 got hit while in the racetrack over the middle of the Azov Sea, it was probably at reasonably high altitude.

And with the distance to the coast and likely altitude it probably makes a MANPAD ambush pretty unlikely.

But with the racetrack‘s closer proximity to the FEBA, I wonder if a Patriot launcher could have been snuck up closer to the FEBA and optimised for a maximum range shot on a ballistic trajectory to hit a large/slow target?

Use ELINT data to track the A50 and throw one or more Patriots ballistically into the predicted A50 racetrack target basket before lighting up the A50 or perhaps passive anti-radiation?

Keen to learn how this hit was executed.
 
That AWACS downing got me on a good foot today. And it seems that the Avdiika offensive from the Russians has culminated and allowed only marginal position gains. Not out of the woods yet but the Ukrainians held with what they had.
 
Sounds more like us and eu insisting Ukraine try for peace, Russia will demand 50% of Ukraine plus disarmament, and everyone goes back to war.
Hardly. Ukraine invites, Ukraine decides whom they invite. Focus is on "neutral" countries in the global South. Sounds like a fundraising diner with the goal of swaying the likes of Brazil and India and getting additional Euro funds.
 
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1705389427800.webp
 

NATO 'closer to war with Russia than most people realise', academic says

A direct conflict with Russia is nearer than many think, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project has warned.
"We are much closer to war with Russia than most people realise," Fabian Hoffmann said on X.
He said that in his opinion the West has two or three years "at best" to re-establish deterrence.
He added: "Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into submission by signalling the ability to inflict progressively greater amounts of damage."
This, Mr Hoffmann said, would include long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on.
"The message to NATO governments: Don't come to the support of your eastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer."



From the NYT.


Yes fellow academic, RuZzia will shoot a few long range missiles at us and we will back down. Please mighty RuZzia stop it. That's all it takes. Then they steamroll into NATO lands and occupy them.

Its that simple. Like it was that easy in Ukraine.

What's the point in publishing such stuff? It's baseless kindergarten material.
 
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@Picanha

I disagree, there's a good reason for publishing such stuff. European governments still lack a sense of urgency – particularly against the backdrop of a potential re-election of Donald Trump, who famously said he wouldn't deploy American soldiers to Europe in the event of war and that NATO was dead. (Which only reiterates my firm belief it's wishful thinking to believe Russia would've been deterred by a Trump administration.)

We must particularly shed the notion that a Russian decision to attack (e.g. in the Suwalki gap) would be based on reason. The invasion of Ukraine was militarily and politically idiotic, counter-productive even, yet still it happened. It's clear the Kremlin is guided by ideology not facts. And Putin might just be brazen enough to assume NATO doesn't want to cause a nuclear winter over the fate of a couple of million people in the Baltics.

So, even if that Mr Hoffmann is wrong about Russia's military capabilities at this stage in time, it's still perfectly reasonable to prepare for Russian provocations regardless. Deterrence is essential to that end. And right now, only the Poles seem to be moving into the right direction.
 
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