Warfare Russia/Ukraine War
- Thread starter morris
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As a kid I used to visit Kremlin, red Square, “Oruzheinaya palata” and of course lenin’s mausoleum(creepy place). The guys you’re curious about are called “kremlyovskiy polk ”(presidents regiment). You can read about them HERE
In 90’s can’t remember that clownish outfit, still it was ugly.
TBH, always hated those stupid outfit and their traditions. They guard the eternal flame, kremlin interior and walls.
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Marcus Keupp: «Deswegen sage ich: Russland verliert den Krieg»
Der ETH-Militärökonom Marcus Keupp glaubt, er könne das Ende des Ukraine-Krieges berechnen. Diese Prophezeiung verbreitet er in den Medien. Ist eine solche Prognose seriös, und warum riskiert ein Wissenschafter seinen Ruf?
www.nzz.ch
Mr. Keupp, how would you describe the current war situation in Ukraine? What is the situation in the embattled Bachmut?
We are now on day 386 of the three-day "special operation" by Russian forces. Seriously, we see since January in the Donbass probably the last Russian initiative that is still possible in this war. This initiative is doomed to fail because the Russians are gradually running out of material and people. Moreover, the situation around Bachmut has no strategic significance for the course of the front as a whole. Ukraine is just now finishing training its tank crews in Germany and Poland. This means that we can expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive with Western tanks in mid-April.
What will this look like?
Ukraine will probably advance from Zaporizhia via Melitopol to the Black Sea coast, splitting the front in two. With a swing to the west, they could then encircle the Russian formations between Melitopol and Nova Kakhovka. Furthermore, they could then place Himars missile systems on the coast, thus putting the military installations in Crimea under fire as well as disrupting logistics. That will then be the moment when Russian defeat becomes apparent. That is my forecast. That is why I also said: Russia will have lost the war militarily in October. The military situation will be comparable to 1944, when the European war was lost for the Axis powers.
If your forecasts are correct, then the Russians should also be aware of the impending defeat. Why do they continue the war anyway? Are they guided by an irrational belief in victory?
Putin has unleashed dynamics that he can no longer control. It is very important in Russian social culture to show strength to the outside world. Otherwise, they are quickly questioned. What Putin is doing in the war actually has nothing to do with the war at all, but with securing his internal system of rule.
How can you rule out that the special forces financed by oligarchs will continue their wars with or without Putin and destabilize the region? So there would be no end to the war as you predict, let alone an orderly withdrawal.
I can't rule that out, on the contrary. After all, there is not only the Wagner force. There is still the Slavonian Corps - from which Wagner emerged - and Patriot - the private force of Shoigu. Gazprom has also just created its own private army "Staf-Zentr". In addition, there are four or five others. It is no coincidence that air defense systems are currently being installed everywhere in Moscow. This is preparation for internal conflicts.
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Would China be able to arm Russia in the short term?
How would that work? The war materiel would have to be transported to the front by train. Just for a Russian fire frequency of 50,000 artillery shells per day along the entire front - as in the summer of 2022 - you would need a freight train of 1600 tons per day via Trans-Siberian Railway. This would not only be logistically very difficult, one would also immediately see these trains on the satellite photos and then impose secondary sanctions against China.
What scenarios are you thinking of?
Russian oligarchs or military leaders could well come up with the idea of knocking Putin out with a few targeted ballistic missiles and taking power themselves. But: if Putin wants to prevent that, he would have to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine in order to secure the internal stability of his regime by force. Even so, the end of the war could come sooner than expected. So it's not a contradiction.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
The Russian side is often said to be inscrutable. Does this give the Russians a strategic advantage?
On the propaganda front, it gives them a massive advantage. They falsify statistics, tell fairy tales. Russia has done that very successfully for twenty years now. Someone like me who soberly notes that is now perceived as an exotic or a speculator. From this you can see how deeply Russian propaganda has seeped into Europe.
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In this conversation, you give the impression that Europe is very Russia-friendly. But it's the other way around: large majorities in the West are behind Ukraine.
Not yet in Germany and France. But one should not overestimate that, because Germany is not a militarily decisive power. On the contrary. Germany would do best to hand over its weapons systems in full to Ukraine. Then Russian aggression would be neutralized in reverse, and today's ailing Bundeswehr could be turned into an army for the 21st century. Fortunately, Europe's security does not depend on Germany, otherwise we would have long been part of the neo-Russian empire.
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On February 24, the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Former German brigadier general Erich Vad said on TV that Putin would win this war, that the matter would last "a few days and no more". Ex-US General Ben Hodges predicted the war would end in the summer of 2022. What did you think when you heard that?
I assume that quite a few members of the former political and military elites in Germany have worked for Russian interests or are still lobbying for them. This will be a very interesting topic for the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, because economic or propagandistic support of war crimes is also punishable. When a German officer retires, he no longer has a duty of so-called good conduct. He may then criticize the government, he may criticize the Bundeswehr, he may make forecasts and value judgments. But the oath he takes to the Federal Republic is for life.
Are you also annoyed by these colleagues because they damage the reputation of your discipline?
I'm annoyed because - consciously or out of naiveté - they spread the Kremlin's narratives and allow themselves to be guided by emotional moods instead of being guided by historical and military facts. There are quite reasonable military experts, for example Markus Reisner or Gustav Gressel in Austria, who see the course of the war more conservatively or pessimistically than I do. I can live with that. History judges us. Let us see in October whether what I have said is true. Let them look at me in ten years, with historical distance.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Germany to send additional 12 billion euros in military support to Ukraine
The German government has agreed to send an additional 12 billion euros ($13.01 billion) worth of military support to Ukraine.
www.reuters.com
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EU greenlights €2 billion ammunition deal for Ukraine
Ukraine roughly needs 1 million ammunition rounds, primarily the 155 mm kind, over the next year. #EuropeNews
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Saw it yesterday. Fantastic video. They destroyed convoy with “javelins”. I’m curious, did UAF used more “javelins” or USAF?
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Funny stories from wasteland vol 4:
Ex-convict had a funeral with military salute. Vladimir Shestakov was a mercenary from PWC Wagner. 5 years ago he killed 5 y.o kid. He was sentenced 18 years. But Wagner brought him out and sent him to Ukraine, where he successfully was converted to fertilizer. In his obituary they wrote:
“Courage and valor in the name of peaceful future of Fatherland”
t.me
Ex-convict had a funeral with military salute. Vladimir Shestakov was a mercenary from PWC Wagner. 5 years ago he killed 5 y.o kid. He was sentenced 18 years. But Wagner brought him out and sent him to Ukraine, where he successfully was converted to fertilizer. In his obituary they wrote:
“Courage and valor in the name of peaceful future of Fatherland”
ЧТД
⚰️😡В Оренбуржье с воинскими почестями похоронили зэка, убившего пятилетнего (!) ребёнка. Это вернувшийся с войны в Украине «вагнеровец» Владимир Шестаков из города Ясного. В некрологе написано, что люди будут помнить его «мужество и отвагу во имя мирного будущего Отечества». Но там забыли...
t.me
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Cyberwarfare leaks show Russian army is adopting mindset of secret police
Documents leaked from Vulkan cybersecurity firm also raise questions about role of IT engineers behind information-control project
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