Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, October 2023
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BBC News continues to promote a narrative on famine in Gaza
Readers may recall that over a period of twelve days in March, the BBC News website promoted a report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IP
camera-uk.org
Former BBC Watch continues to expose media spin bullshit...
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That's what the airport is going to look like tonight
It's widely acknowledged that Hezbollah is transporting weapons from Iran to Beirut via Iran Airlines. Many are anticipating Israel's response, which is expected to involve unprecedented ordnance to swiftly neutralize Hezbollah. Reports suggest the use of advanced GBU bombs, though uncertainty remains regarding their delivery by C-type or B-type Stratofighters, aircraft not currently in Israel's possession. Personally, I envision Israel employing my all time favourite .... a couple low-yield B61 bombs to effectively eliminate targets within a minimum of one-mile radius while minimizing radiation dispersion. The prospect of employing three or four of these bombs would end anywar with hizbolla in a matter of hours
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I dont follow your logic, there is no reason for Israel to use such weapons (B61) against hezzie positions, when they have enough conventional weapons to hand and the means to deliver them.
As an example, up to this point in the UKR conflict and despite what Russia has deployed against UKR its not got to the stage for either side to introduce such weapons as B61 type munitions.
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The only real purpose for the upgraded B61s seems to be attacking strategic targets of (near-)peer opponents that are deep underground like command & control, missile silos and arms factories/storage.
Think the decapitating attack against Saddam in 2003, but with nukes. Really imo the retention of these weapons is to spread out the nuclear triad across as many delivery platforms as possible.
Hezbollah doesn't have those targets and Israel has more experience than anyone else in attacking targets deep underground with non-nuclear ordnance.
If you want to stop Hezbollah from firing missiles in any great quantity you'd need to sling megatons worth of nukes.
The more interesting question is what happens if Israel invades southern Lebanon and Iran starts firing missiles again. Israel and the other forces that helped in intercepting the first attack will be completely overwhelmed when both Iran and Hezbollah fire more than a limited volume.
Even Gaza has managed to oversaturate Israeli air defences.
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You can't compare the russia-ukraine conflict to the israel-hez situation. hez possesses over 300,000 short- to mid-range missiles spread throughout northern areas up to northeastern syria. Their plan involves launching continuous volleys of 5,000 to 10,000 missiles per day, accompanied by UAVs and more than 30,000 guided missiles "through out a time line of 2 to 4 weeks"with mid- to heavy-explosive warheads targeting every part of Israel. This includes northern cities like afula , tel aviv, and extends down to the ngev desert in the south. chemical factories, airports, and nuclear facilities will be targeted by a barrage of various types of missiles, and some believe sleeper cells in jordan and egypt will be activated.
This war will not resemble the 2006 conflict, where people hid in shelters while katyusha rockets damaged cars or walls. This time, israel cannot afford a conventional war and will need to neutralize threats swiftly and decisively with maximum force.
Although Israel talks about a potential invasion, I doubt it will occur. I anticipate a very very very very very limited invasion because a full-scale invasion would be sheer madness .
I expect Israel to follow a rapid decapitation strike, quickly eliminating hez. leadership and key command and control structures to cause immediate disarray and operational paralysis. This could involve kinetic bombardment and EMP attacks, which some in Lebanon claim hez also possesses, though the truth of this is uncertain. The use of biological and chemical agents could also be anticipated. Interestingly, one "tin hat" theory I read about involves weather modification.
I'm also interested to see what role the american aircraft carrier will play. Will it protect the karish gas rig only, or will the usaf join the battle against hez?
This time, Israel needs to quickly incapacitate hez leadership, communication, and operational capabilities, forcing a rapid surrender or collapse. That's why this conflict, if it occurs "and i still believe it wont" will be a very interesting one.
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I believe the example UKR-RUS war bears relevance to the conflict between IDF and Hez, the former (UKR-RUS) are engaged in basically a static line slugging match and there is no sign of any short range tac nukes weapons being deployed.
I stand to be corrected, but I find your figures for the weapons capability of Hezbollah to be on the rather large size, if, they have what you suggest I believe they would have been engaging more often from Lebanon, they do seem to have a lot of loose cannons among their ranks after all.
Why you bring tin hat conspiracy theories about "weather manipulation" into the conversation is beyond me.
a hez-isrl war will not resemble the ukr-rus war in any way. hez will limit its engagement with isrl to avoid revealing their rocket and missile sites.
i'm not sure if hez has undisciplined personnel. they are typically known for adhering to the rules and code of behavior set by their leadership, at least that's what we often hear. however, recently i've been hearing about some disobedient individuals acting on their own. i'm not sure if that's true. additionally, there's been talk of tension within hez leadership. some wanted to go to full-scale war on oct 7th, while others opposed the idea. again, the accuracy of this information is unclear.
one thing i know is that i once met a guy who worked as a personal security detail for hez or someone close to them. he told me that the key decision-makers in the hez command were two iranians and two lebanese, with nasrallah acting as a figurehead/puppet who follows their directives. if i'm not mistaken, the lebanese figures were imad mogneyeh and mostafa badeedine , and the iranians included kasem sleimani and someone else. fortunately, 75% of them have been eliminated. i'm not sure what the current structure is, but i believe it is something similar.
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Again, you miss my point so I will try to word it better.
Ukraine and Russia have been mainly fighting constantly along a fixed line very similar to a border line for over two years now.
Ukraine knows Russia has many troop concentrations, armor staging areas, missile and drone launching positions, long range arty and long range rocket positions, and supply bases, Russia is constantly launching air launched missiles and glide bombs into Ukraine targeting the civil infrastructure.
Up to this point neither side has used any B61 type weapons in the campaign, in fact Ukraine has been hobbled for the large part by USA and NATO countries dictating what weapons may be fired where.
Using the figures you quoted in your former post with that amount of firepower being deployed, Hezbollah would not be able to hide their launch sites so well.
The fact the some Hezbollah members decided to ambush an Irish UN vehicle part of a convoy going to Beirut and kill a young Irish soldier Private Sean Rooney on December 22nd 2022, shows they have loose cannons, immediately post ambush the Hezzies announced :-
"They had nothing to do with it."
Followed later by :-
"Oh! wait we are looking into it, its possible a Hezbollah members was angry at UNIFIL being given more power in the area in particular the monitoring of Hezbollah areas near the southern border."
Followed by "we have arrested one of the perpetrators and are actively trying to locate two others, rest assured justice will be served."
The Irish Ambassador in Beriut 2024 asked how the case was proceeding :- Oh! we let the guy out of custody and cant seem to be able to find him, still no sign of the other perpetrators, but, we are looking.
I understand what you're saying, but let me clarify: you can't compare the situation between Russia and Ukraine to that between Israel and Hezbollah. Russia and Ukraine both have conventional militaries, whereas Hezbollah does not. Additionally, Hezbollah has tens of kilometers of tunnels; some say they have tunnels stretching from Aita Shaab on the Lebanese-Israeli border to Tyre, and from Tyre to Sidon. Im pretty sure they can hide all sort of stuff there
I don't understand why you're bringing up the tragic story of the Irish soldier. What point are you trying to make?
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Well I say that if, UKR and Russia are not using B61's the the IDF have no legitimate reason to use such.
"Some people say" is not proof of fact and the terrain in Lebanon is far different than Gaza, not to mention there are a few rivers involved.
Simples, The story of the murdered Irish soldier is an example of Hezbollah attitude to its loose cannons.
Not sure why you think the USA would only be interested in protecting the karish gas rig only, not like the USA is dependent on its product is it?
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May the fallen hero Rest In Peace
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China Is Waging a Proxy War on Israel
China and Iran have a strategic partnership and share the goal of bringing down the US. It makes sense that China would promote Iran's goals in the Middle East.
www.newsweek.com
Pretty significant development, if true.
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Bringing the war in Ukraine as a way to measure the relevancy of the use of B61 does not make any sense.
Unless some unforeseen development occurs, Russia only had the early days of the war to use any sort of nuclear weapons in a "justified" way. And I am using "justified" as in: going after targets hardened enough to require that kind of weapon to be dealt with.
As we have seen, the use of high-yield precision weapons were more than enough to deal with whatever Russia had to deal with: ammunition depots. Underground facilities on the other hand were simply besieged and hammered until whoever was left inside surrendered.
With the recent deployment of high yields FAB3000 with gliding kit, using a gravity bomb (let's take a RN28 for the sake of example) would be pointless and merely used to "make a statement".
The war between Israel and Hamas is entirely different in every aspects.
Nevertheless, the use of B61s or any low yield nuclear weapon is uncalled for. Wether it is to go after Hamas or Hezbollah.
Even if Israel finds itself in a "deep underground facility", à-la Hal-Shifa, kind of scenario there is nothing that couldn't be done with an appropriate use of conventional GBUs.
As long as exit points are located, simply block them or collapse them, then just hammer down the whole complex.
Another scenario could be a decapitation strike. Again, Hamas, Hezbollah and their HVTs are not time-sensitive unlike, for instance, the Iranian Ayatollahs, the USSR Politburo, the US JCS, etc... Killing the leaders of these organization would not render these organization unable to function.
The use of B61 could, on the other hand, find a justification if used against critical Iranian infrastructures.
Israel does not need to "make a statement".
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