Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[Ivan le Fou]

MQ9 shot down near Bagdad.

 

[IDF_TANKER]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Nothing really changes, doesn't it..?

 

[m208]

There is a part of me that says who cares, but then another part thinks about global movement of people, and that wars tend to spread.

But Iran has been asking for it, and I certainly assumed it would be USA, or possibly Israel that delivered, but no, its Pakistan.....

F35 for Pakistan?

if this happens the indians will kill themselves

 

[m208]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

LOL,what a way to jump the gun

 

[Connaught Ranger]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Ivan le Fou]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

LOL,what a way to jump the gun

Are you doing it?
-yes.

Does it work?
-no.

So you will change your approach?
-no, we will just keep on bombing.

Even though it is meaningless?
-yes.

 

[muck]

So what would you have him do? Nothing? Striking Houthi bases to reduce their capacities seems like a reasonable strategy.

 

[Fluff]

So what would you have him do? Nothing? Striking Houthi bases to reduce their capacities seems like a reasonable strategy.

Yeah but escalation, violence and imperialism/flip flop wearers.

Not really, your right, same as Israel, what the hell else were they going to do after 7 Oct.

I'm also pretty sure the west has been watching the whole preparation and target planning of the Iranians Houthis, and that the numbers of missiles fired is going down.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

So what would you have him do? Nothing? Striking Houthi bases to reduce their capacities seems like a reasonable strategy.

I would have him do something meaningful. Something that has an actual, tangible, impact.

Not "something for the sake of doing something". Which is pretty much was he is doing: hitting a river with a stick in the hope it will stop it from flowing in a given direction.

The kind of response applied by Biden isn't the appropriate one, and that was established right from the start of the bombing campaign. Houthis' abilities are not deterred, their will to carry out their operations aren't either. They are not necessarily emboldened either, but each of their actions is basically them sticking one in the US&cie's collective face and rubbing it in while saying "whatcha gonna do about it?"

As of today ships are still being attacked, hit by missiles and drones and boarded.

Stating this fact does not mean one should "do nothing", but instead think a bit more in order to find a proper solution instead of going for the easiest and most expedient one.


But saying "what should be done" is harder to say "what shouldn't have been done".

What shouldn't have been done is removing the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations; but Biden did it for bleeding heart reasons.

Revocation of the Terrorist Designations of Ansarallah - United States Department of State

The revocations are intended to ensure that relevant U.S. policies do not impede assistance to those already suffering what has been called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Ansarallah leaders remain sanctioned.

www.state.gov

What should have been done is not waiting that many weeks before reacting to Houthis' attacks on civilian merchant ships.

What should have been done is organizing an actual, and working, task force in the region. And not a half-assed slapped together group of people who don't really seem to be interested in working together.

 

[muck]

It seems to me you're contradicting yourself a little, to be honest. For example, on the one hand you're criticising that the Biden administration took too long to react, on the other you're saying they should've assembled a coalition that deserved the name [before starting to retaliate, judging by the context of your post]. The two are mutually exclusive though, the millstone of diplomacy grinds slowly.

Besides, the sad fact is that the majority of the countries of the world (or their governments at least) seem prejudiced against Israel, including several of the world's premier trading powers (like Spain and Canada). They would not have even signed a half-assed declaration against the Huthi if those fuckers hadn't escalated their attacks …

I genuinely don't see what could've been done differently. Like so many situations in the Near East, this one too is a typical case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" with an extra helping of "damned no matter how you do it" sprinkled on top of it.

 

[NoOne]

It seems to me you're contradicting yourself a little, to be honest. For example, on the one hand you're criticising that the Biden administration took too long to react, on the other you're saying they should've assembled a coalition that deserved the name [before starting to retaliate, judging by the context of your post]. The two are mutually exclusive though, the millstone of diplomacy grinds slowly.

Besides, the sad fact is that the majority of the countries of the world (or their governments at least) seem prejudiced against Israel, including several of the world's premier trading powers (like Spain and Canada). They would not have even signed a half-assed declaration against the Huthi if those fuckers hadn't escalated their attacks …

I genuinely don't see what could've been done differently. Like so many situations in the Near East, this one too is a typical case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" with an extra helping of "damned no matter how you do it" sprinkled on top of it.

Biden's choice of words in responding to the question of, "is the bombing working?", was unfortunate, but prescient. "It's a work in progress" may have been more appropriate.

It will take time, and progress will not be linear, and Biden should strongly consider swatting any Iranian asset that might be tied to enabling strikes from Houthiville.

The lack of actual support from "allies" plays right into the narrative that the U.S. should withdraw from world affairs, which, of course, is not a real option.

 

[NoOne]

I would have him do something meaningful. Something that has an actual, tangible, impact.

Not "something for the sake of doing something". Which is pretty much was he is doing: hitting a river with a stick in the hope it will stop it from flowing in a given direction.

The kind of response applied by Biden isn't the appropriate one, and that was established right from the start of the bombing campaign. Houthis' abilities are not deterred, their will to carry out their operations aren't either. They are not necessarily emboldened either, but each of their actions is basically them sticking one in the US&cie's collective face and rubbing it in while saying "whatcha gonna do about it?"

As of today ships are still being attacked, hit by missiles and drones and boarded.

Stating this fact does not mean one should "do nothing", but instead think a bit more in order to find a proper solution instead of going for the easiest and most expedient one.


But saying "what should be done" is harder to say "what shouldn't have been done".

What shouldn't have been done is removing the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations; but Biden did it for bleeding heart reasons.

Revocation of the Terrorist Designations of Ansarallah - United States Department of State

The revocations are intended to ensure that relevant U.S. policies do not impede assistance to those already suffering what has been called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Ansarallah leaders remain sanctioned.

www.state.gov

What should have been done is not waiting that many weeks before reacting to Houthis' attacks on civilian merchant ships.

What should have been done is organizing an actual, and working, task force in the region. And not a half-assed slapped together group of people who don't really seem to be interested in working together.

You can't get blood from a stone regarding cooperation from allies who have the resources but not the will to assist the U.S. in this matter.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

I am not seeing any contradiction.

A "PR" coalition has been formed. Which is one in name only since it ends up being a group of nations being present in the same area for the, more or less, same reason: shipping lanes being threatened.
What purpose are they there for and how they are intending on manifesting their intents is entirely up to each of these nations. Some will work with others, some will accept command from others, some will have a proactive approach, some a purely defensive one and others are just there to observe.

That's the first thing. A bunch of people with no set organization and/or homogeneous operational consensus.

The US, as per usual, set itself as the "brain of the operation", though most of the parties in presence either don't recognize the US as such and/or want to.
Can't remember when the attacks on the shipping lanes started, but it took some time for "something" to be done. First drones and missiles were intercepted, then a couple of small ships. And recently air strikes on Houthi "infrastructures".

Again, the Houthi isn't a conventional force and thus isn't organized as one. You can't expect "hitting buildings" and an airfield (which they have no use for except for their lone F5; and helis can operate from more or less anywhere) to cripple them. It may slow them down a bit, but the gain will still remain extremely low.

So, "damned if you do, damned if you don't, and damned whatever you do anyway"...? Not really.

Something could have been done following Oct7 when the US and a number of countries rushed their fleets in the region.
This could have been used as the core, or premise, for something much larger.
It hasn't.

Iran and the Houthis have been "allowed" to taunt the US by attacking their merchant and military ships, as well as their military and diplomatic infrastructures in Iraq.
**They have also attacked ships from other countries, some of which have retaliated or at least reacted (India for instance); but for the sake of the argument let's focus on the US.
**Taking the risk to sound hyperbolic, the Houthis and Iranian actions against the US are egregious. And yet, the US's reaction is mild.
Several ballistic missiles have been launched and a drone shot down, yet... the answer is pretty much spitball.
**Then you compare it to how Pakistan reacted to Iran's act of aggression. They didn't wait weeks to retaliate.

Biden can still decide to take the gloves off, but the measures will have to be much harsher to convince the Houthis and Iran to stop poking their way around.
And since it relies on expecting Biden to make an actual, reasoned, sensible and logical decision... one should expect whatever comes out of his admin to not be appropriate.

Obama's warning about Joe are still loudly echoing in the background.

 

[muck]

Nothing really changes, doesn't it..?

It's kinda sad, to be honest. Iran is one of the few Muslim countries in that part of the world which could actually turn into a productive member of the global community if freed from tyranny. It was so laughable how back in 2011 the left was tripping over itself to celebrate the "Arab Spring", even though the entire Arab world can't muster ten secular democrats between them.

Meanwhile in Iran there actually are millions of highly-educated and (by regional standards) liberal young people living under the whip of a regime that would rather waste the country's resources on fighting a pointless war against Israel and America than creating a better future for them.

I genuinely believe that Iran is one of the few countries that could make progress if the Ayatollahs were ousted – unlike places like Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which will remain shitholes for generations to come.

 

[Mark Sman]

So what would you have him do? Nothing? Striking Houthi bases to reduce their capacities seems like a reasonable strategy.

Start whacking the money guys first, then start whacking dogs from the front of the pack, but not the top dog first.

History shows that usually gets results.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Start whacking the money guys first, then start whacking dogs from the front of the pack, but not the top dog first.

History shows that usually gets results.

The money guys?

Didn't the US give back a few billions of $ to Iran recently?

Does that mean we can whack Biden and his admin?

 

[Mark Sman]

The money guys?

Didn't the US give back a few billions of $ to Iran recently?

Does that mean we can whack Biden and his admin?

No, but we (US) should stop making major mistakes.

It would be nice to whack the money guys at the head of the murder chain in Iran, but that is probably unrealistic. In this context we need to whack the money guys in the payment flow who are closest to the fire/don't fire decision point in the Houthi areas. This will have impact in both directions on the payment flow line.


As always this message was fully vetted by the Armchair Forces using our standard Monday morning procedures. (Light refreshments after.)

 

[Mike1976]

Biden can still decide to take the gloves off, but the measures will have to be much harsher to convince the Houthis and Iran to stop poking their way around.
And since it relies on expecting Biden to make an actual, reasoned, sensible and logical decision... one should expect whatever comes out of his admin to not be appropriate.

Obama's warning about Joe are still loudly echoing in the background.

The entire Iranian strategy seems focused on forcing an escalation with any of the countries they've attacked. It would just be giving them what they want.

The effort needed to make it more painful for Iran to stop than it is to continue escalating isn't something anyone is willing to go to. Even a full air campaign against any Iranian (military) infrastructure and leadership won't stop them because becoming a martyr is their biggest goal in life. You'd have to nuke the country out of existence to ensure the end of the threat.

It's only a matter of time before they develop nukes and the situation spirals completely out of control.

 

[Fluff]

The entire Iranian strategy seems focused on forcing an escalation with any of the countries they've attacked. It would just be giving them what they want.

The effort needed to make it more painful for Iran to stop than it is to continue escalating isn't something anyone is willing to go to. Even a full air campaign against any Iranian (military) infrastructure and leadership won't stop them because becoming a martyr is their biggest goal in life. You'd have to nuke the country out of existence to ensure the end of the threat.

It's only a matter of time before they develop nukes and the situation spirals completely out of control.

I'm not sure there is any option other than some large military action. Until recently their main target was USA, with a side of Israel, and any of their friends as desert. Now it seems that anyone that isnt Iran is a target.

 

[Mark Sman]

I'm not sure there is any option other than some large military action. Until recently their main target was USA, with a side of Israel, and any of their friends as desert. Now it seems that anyone that isnt Iran is a target.

Iran has made aggressive moves in so many directions that they are creating more enemies than friends. They have the Pakistanis openly shooting at them. How hard is it going to be for the ISI to convince some fringe Taliban/Tribes to have a go as well?

At this point the Iranian government is not paranoid to think everybody is out to get them. Given their actions, yeah pretty much everybody is out to get them. And the rest will shed alligator tears at best.

I do believe there are a great many people in Iran who want better for their country. Somebody above posted that given half a chance the general Iranian population actually could build a functioning state. Sounds right, hope they get a chance to do it. In no way willing for the US to get involved in any way with doing that for them or with them. Best of luck though.