Crime Russian opposition figure hospitalized

They say they have a proof but they can't show it, so it is just a propaganda aimed to stop Nord Stream 2.

 
I've recently noticed that the director of SVR became exceedingly active in making statements, and although he mostly touches upon the Belarus topic, I generally just found it very interesting that SVR suddenly became so vocal. To my memory they always stayed so quiet, I even on a number of occasions forgot that they exist. But now they became as noisy as any other branch of the Russian state.
And, for me at least, it signals that spy games (or spy wars for that matter) are in full swing or may have even reaching a boiling point. And with regard to that, anything is possible.
 
Would you consider China a reliable tester if the result was positive?

Well, at least China is much more idependent then any EU country (all of them are US puppets).

Anyway, in my opinion this case is only Russia's business and any foreign interference is unacceptable and must be prosecuted and prevented.
 
1. This "Novichok" crap has been used 3 times in recent history, in Bulgarian, UK, and now allegedly inside Russia itself.
2. In all 3 cases the victim survived.
3. In all 3 cases the victim posed no threat to the Russian state nor to Putin. (those who genuinely believe that an arms dealer, an old, pardoned discharged spy, and a youtube celebrity that caters to teens for ad-revenue, are threats to Putin, y'all need your heads checked)
4. Putin and the Russian government, intelligence agencies, bureaucracy are well aware of the threat of international sanctions coming from the west, that will come at the slightest transgression. Ukraine flares up - Russia's fault, Belarus flares up - Russia's fault, someone dies somewhere in the world - let's look for ways to pin it on Russia.
5. Despite the entirety of the Russian state aware of the fact that they're walking on mines daily, they decide it would be a good idea to come up with, sanction, and carry out a failed poisoning of a Russian youtube celebrity, then spend hours trying to save his life, then with all parade and whistles send him to Germany for treatment, because they're itching to step on yet another mine.
6. They're intentionally stepping on mines and angering western countries, despite the fact that they struggle deeply to save multi-billion projects they have with western countries.
7. Everyone acknowledges this is idiotic, so the only solution to explain why this is happening in this specific interpretation of events is: "Well, Putin is an idiot, so it's expected he does incredibly stupid things."

There was really no point of assassinating Nemstov, execution style in a broad daylight to boot. Yet, Kadyrov ordered the hit. Was this his own initiative or Putin ordered him we don't know. Same thing with Navalny, I have no doubt that he was poisoned on orders from high ranking Russian official can't say whether it was Putin or someone else. Navalny pissed off a lot of people by his anti-corruption crusade, very high ranking individuals.
 
My assumption for how things really went would be as follows:
Scenario #1: He was indeed poisoned in Russia, but by someone other than the state, and the reason Russian medics failed to find traces of Novichok in his body, was because Russian medics kind of suck and are incompetent at their job. And the Russian state knowing something's fishy with Navalny's health condition, still didn't push for any deeper research into his condition, because they're just lazy and don't care all that much about potential findings or outcries on an international scale, so they just dumped the work of healing Navalny on Germany. (I find this scenario least likely, but at least it feels more logical than the official story. It's pure human negligence and incompetence on medical and state level.)
Scenario #2: He wasn't poisoned by Novichok in Russia and the reason for his condition was something else. That's why when they did tests in Russia they didn't find traces of anything potentially incriminating, and both the medics and the state were confident enough that they can safely send him for treatment abroad with little worries, as since they didn't find anything it's unlikely that someone else would. But during his transportation to Germany or during his hospitalization, someone got involved and planted the evidence. Because it's very politically convenient for quite a few players to cause another international scandal and cause further division between Russian and German interests. (I find this scenario more plausible, as it then fully explains Russia's conviction that Navalny's body was clean, and Germany's confidence that it in fact wasn't. And the likely reason why the sharing of samples between Russia and Germany is being blocked, is because there's a possibility that the samples Russian medics possess would conflict with the samples German medics got after the transfer.)

Scenario #3: Putin just shits on it and knows that a plethora of "theories" will emerge. Nobody can sue him nor really prove anything. Its like the Mafia having its own country. The worlds lefties will run to aid with crude theories aided by bots. Because in the end it can always be denied and shrugged off. Why should we do it it hurts us most? But this is not an argument.

I have some points:

1. The Kremlin feels highly unsafe and is paranoid.

2. They are sanctioned anyway - they already got away with far more actions. Knowing that no WW3 is risked. In German there is a saying:
"Ist der Ruf erst ruiniert -
lebt es sich ganz ungeniert"
Once your reputation is destroyed you can live your life totally unabashedly.
Also totally unexplainable and non provable poisonings of unwanted Russian citizens happen in western countries. What coincidence.
The Western secret services must be really good at constructing and keeping alive this consistent complot against the Kremlin. Victimization see No.4.

3. The way to deal with problems is force, but it can´t really put up the power the Soviet Union had. So the Kremlin resorts to clandestine measures. Also internally. An illusion of opposition is tolerated but it must be shown its boundaries in a covert way.

4. Confusion is factored into the actions knowing that the West is a (perceived) good and easy target. Exploiting current turmoil and trying to do the destabilization game which Russia and Putin itself deeply feel a victim of themselves. The fifth culumn of post communists and their usual allies in destabilizing democracy , Nazis, are of great help in the internet age.

5. Strategical thinking: In the context of NS2 they put Germany between a rock and a hard place knowing how pressure is exerted from the US. Hoping that Germany won´t cave in they seem to be willing to gamble on the investions. The gas will be sold either way. So any scenario seems to be a winning one.


Now regarding the case itself:

1. The Kremlin has the blood of Navalny
2. Navalnys friends immediately sent his drinking bottle to Germany on which traces were found. Germany shared this evidence with France and Sweden.
3. The doctors in Omsk only provided contradictory informations at first. Ranging from neuroleptica intoxication to low blood sugar levels.
4. Dubious attempts at delaying his evacuation to Germany were made. Citing working hour restrictions in Germany for example.
5. How convenient that he got that seizure on an airplane making getting help just more complicated.
6. The OPCW now also has samples.
7. Demanding "proof" from the laboratories is an easy act knowing that they can´t supply the proof without compromising secret information.
8. Accusing Germany of having him poisoned there, while he fell into a coma in Russia.



Well Mafia methods...
 
Well, at least China is much more idependent then any EU country (all of them are US puppets).
Anyway, in my opinion this case is only Russia's business and any foreign interference is unacceptable and must be prosecuted and prevented.

I think you would be delusional if you would be serious. For example USSR had some control over politics of Finland, but It would have been a huge stretch to call those politicians puppets. Russia has more impact in our politics than US. Or do you believe in some lizard men behind the scenes?

But so what if there were lizard men in the government running the government? There is very significant separation of powers in countries like Sweden and politicians don't have control over individual tests run by some institution. Unlike in China where politics is integral part on all levels. That's what matters, not independence of government.

If you want to believe that it's anti-Russia conspiracy, it's much more reasonable for you to imagine that the samples themselves were tampered before being sent abroad.

Although I fail to see that would anyone win in this conspiracy. Doesn't do much good for anyone.
 
I think you would be delusional if you would be serious. For example USSR had some control over politics of Finland, but It would have been a huge stretch to call those politicians puppets. Russia has more impact in our politics than US.

I think US has too much influence in EU politcs on various levels. And these separation of power do not helped much. Even if some politician not controlled by US directly, there is lots of ways to contol him via other branches of power (ie military, intelligence, media, business, NGOs and funds etc).
 
I think US has too much influence in EU politcs on various levels. And these separation of power do not helped much. Even if some politician not controlled by US directly, there is lots of ways to contol him via other branches of power (ie military, intelligence, media, business, NGOs and funds etc)

I don't really know about what is happening elsewhere, but rather than having control over our politicians, we just happen to have a lot of politicians who have positive view of the US and the basic principles of the country. And that's why they choose to align with the country.

And I can easily say that if I was a politician, I would be in that camp. It's my parents fault, they sent me to the US to be indoctrinated. Before that I had negative view of the country through media.
 
Scenario #3: Putin just shits on it and knows that a plethora of "theories" will emerge. Nobody can sue him nor really prove anything. Its like the Mafia having its own country. The worlds lefties will run to aid with crude theories aided by bots. Because in the end it can always be denied and shrugged off. Why should we do it it hurts us most? But this is not an argument.

If you want to get rid of a person you perceive as dangerous to you, why go the extra length to utilize a dirty weapon like Novichok that's obviously going to leave an entire highway of evidence all the way from Russia to Germany?

1. It's more expensive.
2. It's more risky.
3. It's more difficult.

For heaven's sake, just push the dude off a roof, and make up some bullshit story about it being an accident.

Then nobody has anything to ride on in terms of accusations, evidence, sanctions, and there's no need to clean up evidence.
Like seriously, if Putin has intelligence agencies working for him, they could literally come up with an entire plethora of ideas on how to quietly get rid of Navalny, easier, cheaper, cleaner. I can come up with a few myself.
But they had to choose the most dirty method (which has a track record of never working), didn't clean up evidence, and didn't care about what the overall fallout would be.

Sound legit.
 
If you want to get rid of a person you perceive as dangerous to you, why go the extra length to utilize a dirty weapon like Novichok that's obviously going to leave an entire highway of evidence all the way from Russia to Germany?

1. It's more expensive.
2. It's more risky.
3. It's more difficult.

For heaven's sake, just push the dude off a roof, and make up some bullshit story about it being an accident.

Then nobody has anything to ride on in terms of accusations, evidence, sanctions, and there's no need to clean up evidence.
Like seriously, if Putin has intelligence agencies working for him, they could literally come up with an entire plethora of ideas on how to quietly get rid of Navalny, easier, cheaper, cleaner. I can come up with a few myself.
But they had to choose the most dirty method (which has a track record of never working), didn't clean up evidence, and didn't care about what the overall fallout would be.

Sound legit.

To drive a message across. Yes, we'll do this to anyone, and we don't care. Plus the figureheads on the Russian TV can toke up flames repeatedly chanting, look the West is out to get us out of spite and envy. Russian / Soviet / Russian again history is ripe with decisions by its rulers that don't make sense. Well, they are definitely keeping the subjects entertained.
 
To drive a message across. Yes, we'll do this to anyone, and we don't care. Plus the figureheads on the Russian TV can toke up flames repeatedly chanting, look the West is out to get us out of spite and envy. Russian / Soviet / Russian again history is ripe with decisions by its rulers that don't make sense. Well, they are definitely keeping the subjects entertained.

So in the end it comes down to:
- Putin does stupid stuff because he's stupid.
- It's to drive a message across that he's evil and everyone should fear him.
- Soviet Union was pretty stupid anyway.
- By the way, did we close Nord Stream 2 yet? Let's not get distracted here from the main goal.
 
So in the end it comes down to:
- Putin does stupid stuff because he's stupid.
- It's to drive a message across that he's evil and everyone should fear him.
- Soviet Union was pretty stupid anyway.
- By the way, did we close Nord Stream 2 yet? Let's not get distracted here from the main goal.

Stopping Nord Stream 2 for the US is a business decision, Russia just supplies "ammo" by pulling stupid stunts. However, the effort by the US would have been made regardless of Navlanyi, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. etc. The opposite goes for Germany regardless of Navlanyi, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. etc. it wants Nord Stream 2 completed.

Decisions in Russia / Soviet Union / Russia have always been made by a very narrow circle of politicians without any need for accountability. So, yes, you can try some reckless stuff.
 
Stopping Nord Stream 2 for the US is a business decision, Russia just supplies "ammo" by pulling stupid stunts. However, the effort by the US would have been made regardless of Navlanyi, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. etc. The opposite goes for Germany regardless of Navlanyi, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. etc. it wants Nord Stream 2 completed.

Decisions in Russia / Soviet Union / Russia have always been made by a very narrow circle of politicians without any need for accountability. So, yes, you can try some reckless stuff.

To me it seems that:
If Putin would carry out a very professional assassination, with no evidence, no witness accounts, and no way to prove links between him/state and said assassination, the story would go: "Well, he's KGB-smart, so obviously he can carry out a perfect assassination. There's no doubting that."
If Putin would carry out an incredibly sloppy assassination, the story would go: "Well, he's Soviet-stupid, and there's no accountability nor professionalism in Russia anyway. There's no doubting that."

And that's a very common trait of all these stories in MSM.
One day Russia is this evil bear with a huge army that's going to stomp all of Europe into the ground, and hence we need more money for defense.
The very next morning Russia is this backward rusting gas station, that can't even build a tank without it breaking down during the victory parade on Red Square.

The evident pattern is, that stories and their premises can always be directly contradicting each other, for as long as the main idea behind these stories, the final point so to say, remains the same. You know like, the journey doesn't matter, as long as the destination is the same.
It doesn't matter if we call it stupid, or evil-smart, weak or evil-strong. Consistency is irrelevant.

To me all of this is background noise, and attempts to divert attention. I'm only interested in who benefits and who hurts from any particular action.
 
It indeed seems very contradictory. But maybe that's the point? One more abstract possibility would be a rogue action of some RF service, but I doubt that under Putin, he has his powers strictly controlled.

Pushing him off the roof is too brute and would alienate more Russian citizens from Putin. In this case I believe it was kind of a convenient outcome he is not dead but he most certainly won't go back to Russia either.


I think US has too much influence in EU politcs on various levels. And these separation of power do not helped much. Even if some politician not controlled by US directly, there is lots of ways to contol him via other branches of power (ie military, intelligence, media, business, NGOs and funds etc).

That's not how it works. The US has no control over the EU and vice versa this also not the goal of either party. The point in parliamentary democracies is that no one exerts full power. Europe and the US are partners because of a multitude of reasons.

One is for example what PEMM mentioned.
And many have ties to the US or grew up with a shared world view. I see kids and teens singing American/English songs and living a similar lifestyle - it was even so nearly 40 years ago when I was a kid. I have yet to see the generation speaking Chinese ;)

And there are not that many functioning democracies on the planet. At the moment parts of the US administration are even quite hostile towards some EU countries and trying to divide them as every outside power does. But the point is how it's done and what is there to expect on a long term.

No western politicians or national leader has the powers authoritarian regimes have. Some like Trump sure wouldn't mind :)

But there are so many checks and balances installed that it is nearly impossible. You need an armed coup to achieve that.

Just look at all the different opinions and parties in most EU countries who, with all the power, would tolerate that?

Sure there is lobbyism and you can buy influence but it only goes so far. The industry has the most power in this regard. But even they have to accept certain rules created by the public political discourse.
 
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It indeed seems very contradictory. But maybe that's the point? One more abstract possibility would be a rogue action of some RF service, but I doubt that under Putin, he has his powers strictly controlled.

Of course you can always construct an incredibly convoluted theory, even to prove that the earth is flat. But why would you do that?
The biggest red flag for me in this discussion, is that people who believe that Putin or the state was behind this assassination have only one excuse to justify this belief, and that's "Putin/state is stupid and/or evil."
A major red flag. Russia isn't a some banana republic with a population of 1-million and a political history of 30 years. (and probably even those countries wouldn't be this sloppy).
We're talking about a country with enormous territory, large population, huge nuclear arsenal, multiple regions/republics/ethnicities, difficult and dramatic history, hundreds of years of internal power struggles, war campaigns, conquests, space race, nuclear energy, and the list just goes on...
You need to be very gullible to believe that somehow this large country, with its extensive complicated history, is governed by idiots who can't 2+2.
It just goes against the laws of evolution and natural selection.

Pushing him of the roof is too brute

Pushing him off a roof is just a random example. My main point is that using a staged accident is much easier than using a WMD to kill someone you don't like. Car accident, gas explosion, even a bullet in the head by some thug on the street.

and would alienate more Russian citizens from Putin.

And certainly evidence that Putin poisoned Navalny, and provoked more sanctions against Russia that would hurt Russia's citizens - won't alienate them from Putin at all, not the slightest. He certainly picked the lesser of 2 evils...

That's not how it works. The US has no control over the EU and vice versa this also not the goal of either party. The point in parliamentary democracies is that no one exerts full power. Europe and the US are partners because of a multitude of reasons.

Yeah, I call bs on this one.
It doesn't matter what kind of parliamentary democracy you are or aren't. But a state remains a state by nature. It's like a business of sort, and the goal of any business is to secure its interests. Geography and geopolitical borders often play a definitive role in this.

What would happen if Russia would join NATO on equal terms? - given that Russia is located in Europe, and is the biggest military force and political giant of Europe, with a matter of few years NATO's HQ could be moved to Moscow, simply because USA is just too far away to compete for the throne in this case. Why rely on military supplies and logistics from overseas, if you can get them quicker and in larger numbers from mainland? Indeed, no reason to.

What would happen if Russia would join EU on equal terms? - given that Russia is located in Europe, and is the largest country, with largest territory and resources, it would immediately be pitted against Germany for dominance in the union.

What would happen if Russia wouldn't join neither EU nor NATO, but would develop deep inter-dependencies in energy, trade and politics with Germany? Well, again, with all things considered, USA's relevance on the continent would just be diminished. Just as today Germany is reluctant to cancel Nord Stream 2 (because it deeply benefits both Germany and Russia), in case of any deeper alliance, Germany would in fact be reluctant to oppose Russia in other economic, political or geopolitical decisions. And if we take into consideration that Russia's and USA's foreign policy tends to be exactly opposite to each other, this would diminish USA's ability to garner support for its own initiatives in Europe.

The nature of international relations is governed by human nature, or nature of human groups, and their needs/interests, not by fantasies about parliamentary democracies. No state sacrifices its resources just to benefit some other state without getting something in return for it.
 

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