Ukrainian casualties are "bad, really bad" because we have made a conscious choice not to give them the tools they need.
Even though we do know we know they'll fight regardless.
And again I ask: So?
Do you reckon a man who owns more palaces than you do trousers is a man who seeks to die?
I put it to you you're grossly underestimating the fact that Russia won't be defeated by a strangled economy. You're wholly engrossed in a Western-centric view point. If the Russians have proved one thing through their history, it's they're capable of enduring immense hardship, and that their governments are more than happy to imprison or outright kill the few who do speak up.
Has a situation been created where it is assured the Houthis won't renew their offensive against Israel and international shipping? No. And what did Trump himself say the day before yesterday? That America's strikes against the Houthis will have to resume in case they keep attacking Israel. Now, replace "Houthis" with 'Russians' and "Israel" with 'Ukraine' to spot the missing ingredient in our case.
You do my head in.
First of all, they'd be getting back way more than merely rubble. Economically, the occupation of the Donbas is akin to some foreign power taking Scotland (and its oil) from the United Kingdom. How bearable would such a loss be to the British?
But never mind that—you're ignoring the fact that Ukraine has long since offered territorial concessions if they get security guarantees in return. Their war effort has only one goal now: Assuring themselves there won't be round number three in a few years time.
You seem willing to roll the dice of hoping the Russians will content themselves with the concessions Trump tries to extract from Ukraine. Well, it seems the Ukrainians don't, and I can't blame them. They've been burned twice, why would they ask for a third time?
If you force Ukraine to become history's next divided Germany or divided Korea, you're going to have to adopt the very measures which ensured the survival of West Germany or South Korea.
He's testing the water? By doing the same thing over, over and over again, always getting the same defiant response from Russia?
And how did Roosevelt react to Britain's worsening military situation in 1940?
You've just argued my point.
No. That is most definitely not the argument.
The argument is that if you truly care about Ukrainian lives, then it's patently illogical to promote a solution which all but guarantees an imminent renewal of hostilities at a potentially even greater cost of life.
Why then did Trump undermine the Europeans by reneging on a previously agreed course of action and delegitimising the ultimatum the Europeans had issued?
No, I beg to differ. Trump has made it abundantly clear he considers European unity harmful to American interests, going so far as to claim the European Union was created to "screw the US over".
More importantly, the Europeans prefer a solution which Trump deems confrontational. They won't force Ukraine to sue for peace at all costs. Trump has often accused Kyiv (and by implication, its European backers) of risking plunging the entire continent into a great war. He thinks that's what the Europeans will be doing, risking war with Russia, and the last thing Trump wants is a European war disrupting America's economy or for the Europeans to invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty.
He doesn't want Europe to take the lead. He just wants this war to go away. And he's decided forcing Kyiv to concede defeat is the fasted way to achieve that aim.
I would not take any security guarantees from anyone. The only security for Ukraine is a large well equipped army, bunkers and mines on Russian and Belarus borders, and don’t rebuild any of the bridges. Russia will try to make this part of the deal, I.e. small army.
Putin is blustering, mostly to his own people. Take another 4 regions, fight for 21 years. Putin will have to show some ‘win’ probably crimea being ceded by Ukraine, in return for some other land.
On dividing countries, it was divide them or nuclear war. Taking the long view, and I appreciate you will have another view, no nuke war happened, ‘everyone survived’
Ukr cannot win this. Even drunken untrained Russians would get lucky enough times to make ukr casualties unacceptable. And it would take years of prep and years of fighting. Maybe if that had been Biden and europes plan from day 1, with a plan to grow their Air Force to 100f16 and 50 a10. Start refurbing abrams by the hundred. But it wasn’t.
All your plans leave Ukrainians and Russians dying, by 100k at a time. I care zero about the Russians, but with no win in site it’s pointless.
Under Biden, US and europe agreed, to keep bleeding Russia, minimise pain for ukr. Now trump is in, he is trying peace, europe does seem to prefer bidens plan. Logically for europe, is logical. Morally it’s not so great.
But if europe really wanted ukr to push Russia back, Germany would be handing over all old leo2 and buying new ones for itself. Instead they sent what 30?
U.K. the same, we sent 30 tanks, we are upgrading the rest, we could have sent them all and built new.
So part of this, is that europe and U.K. have not adjusted from the Biden plan.