Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Musashi]

According to tatarigami_UA on "X" there are only small groups trapped. It was possible for the Ukrainians to pull out their forces. For some reason cannot post the link.

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[PEMM]

As a Finn I am a bit worried. We have kept conscription and our (updated) doctrine of area defense, but due to simple numbers it has never relied on being able to beat Russia on the battlefield. It has been about a deterrent for causing excruciating pain and making an invasion not worth it. Russia has just shown that they don't care about the pain or how many of them die, if they just decide to want something.

Another thing is that if Russia manages to gain any land, it sticks to it like lice. Our capacity to do counter attacks is not good enough.

 

[Mike1976]

I'd worry about the Baltics a bit, especially if NATO/EU show an unwillingness to commit.

So far that unwillingness has only been explicitly expressed by the president of the US.

 

[Mike1976]

Russia has just shown that they don't care about the pain or how many of them die, if they just decide to want something.

That has never been any different.

 

[Mike1976]

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[Chazman]

As a Finn I am a bit worried. We have kept conscription and our (updated) doctrine of area defense, but due to simple numbers it has never relied on being able to beat Russia on the battlefield. It has been about a deterrent for causing excruciating pain and making an invasion not worth it. Russia has just shown that they don't care about the pain or how many of them die, if they just decide to want something.

One thing Ukraine did right was at the beginning of the war, they opened up the armories and armed their citizens and were able to put up a stiff resistance until things became more organized.Finland has done that as a way of life, forever.

 

[Chazman]

There were many deals prior to the outbreak of major hostilities.

Edit: OT

The "to the end" mindset was driven by the fact that neither Germany or Japan never proposed surrender conditions either.

EDIT: that being said, noone can with conventional weapons destroy Russia. The question is what can we do so they don't want to use their remoteness to threaten other nations. What can other nations to do to make such actions painful?

I see the real possibility of nuclear weapons being used as a threat. But it is not a good defensive solution. Only a dissuasive one.

Germany wanted a deal with Churchill but Churchill refused. Hitler made a deal with Stalin, but Hitler double crossed him. Japan would have been happy to bomb Pearl Harbor and scare America enough to keep them out of the war, but they didn't understand the American psyche and the lust for revenge/justice.

 

[Chazman]

So far that unwillingness has only been explicitly expressed by the president of the US.

Don't worry about him, then. Are you telling me that a half billion rich Europeans can't take care of their own business?

 

[Chazman]

You dont need to destroy Russia, but you can exhaust it to defeat. No more power projection and threats. In that way, you can defeat it without buring Russia to the ground.

The Chinese are not looking at what happened to Russia as a "World power" and "Second most powerful army" that is a western point of view. In the Chinese view, Russia is a second rate partner for them and economically beneath them, whose women are there for the sole purpose of being bar hostess in Asian KTVs. Russians for them are convenient as it allows them to rattle the western cages with out needing to raise a finger. Just look at their modernization, their military and tech modernization is more and more western in view and doctrine. They only keep Russian tech or weapons on cases where it is convenient or easier to just buy out than reverse engineer.

I agree, that Russia is a second tier power. Now, certainly even more than 3 years ago. I will submit to you, that Russia is already exhausted. Never mind Putin's poker face. I mean, they've run out Scooby vans and are using donkeys now.

Regarding China, Xi is pretty insular, so it is unknown what sort of advice he is getting, but if they are observing the goings on here, and they are hard to ignore, they will be worthy of consideration. And yes, they have stolen enough Western tech now, that they are moving past the Soviet tech that they have previously stolen.