Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Telmar]

Regardless of my previous post, I have no inside track on negotiations. But it's obvious many here have never negotiated ANYTHING. Everyone gives up something and everyone gives more than they want. This is not an unconditional surrender by anyone, this is a negotiated peace. I might have posted early on in this thread, that if Ukraine could hang on, this is where we'd be today.

There is a negotiation ongoing. But it seems more that right now the USA and Russia are negotiating the spoils of Ukraine.

It may be realistic, but without the acceptance of the Ukrainians, there is no peace, only a diktat.

 

[Fluff]

Regardless of my previous post, I have no inside track on negotiations. But it's obvious many here have never negotiated ANYTHING. Everyone gives up something and everyone gives more than they want. This is not an unconditional surrender by anyone, this is a negotiated peace. I might have posted early on in this thread, that if Ukraine could hang on, this where we'd be today.

The actual parties to this are Ukr and Russia. Everyone else, inc USA, EU, UK, even China etc are not at war. We have supported our preferred side, played mind games, done naughty things in bad places.

The war has culminated, like 2 boxers in round 7, both are badly beaten. Biden wanted this dragged out, there is some strategic logic in doing that, but its not great for the Ukr. Trump wants to try something else.

Lots of smoke and mirrors, clearly EU and UK are to some degree in on it, as per their offer of troops, jets etc, within 48 hours of the Saudi meeting.

on the table will be:
Peace in both directions
Land -in both directions
Crimea
Gas to EU/money
Money for Ukr - from gas, or from Russian assets
Defence of Ukr in future
Sanctions relief/trade
Prisoners
civilians

Trump clearly has a plan, yes a lot of noise seems 'nice' to Russia - I really think this is trump blowing smoke up Putins ass, to get him in the room. Trump is building the pressure on everyone to settle, to be prepared to settle, and to settle for not all of what they want.

Even stuff outside of this, could be part of it, like the nuclear stuff about reducing arsenals. Russia is bust, not having to compete with USA would give Russia a lot of money, and save USA a lot of money, to use on space rockets and statues of Trump.

 

[Telmar]

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Visegrad24 made a mockery of Macron at the beginning of the conflict because he tried to maintain a channel with the Russians. It is a sh1tshow and does not belong IMHO on a serious forum.

 

[Fluff]

I'd specifically add France and UK are in on it, as per the 2 of them coming to see trump this week. They are getting a briefing, and some detail of his plan.

 

[PEMM]

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So, did we get anything from this visit?

 

[primer]

The loan is Russian from their sactioned investments. This what he's on about. Which will get repaid to EU.

This must be a toll on those oligarchs which does hurt Putin for whatever a sociopath has any concept of.

 

[thelistener]

Explain what is the purpose for Russian sanctions, AFTER peace is achieved.

for the same reason why sanctions have been in place since 2014
If Ukraine gets back to 1991 borders they should be lifted.

 

[PEMM]

If Ukraine gets back to 1991 borders they should be lifted.

Not necessarily. It's a dictatorship that kills of It's opposition, with invasion tendencies.

We should expect real changes in the country before opening the trade, otherwise we are just financing their next invasion.

 

[thelistener]

weekly self-flagellation time.
I sympathize with @Chazman , because here we are clowning on Trump's comments, but as Stalin said about the Pope, he who has the guns rules. No matter how this clown show ends, I hope and pray that these European decision-makers have now been shown enough of the cold face of reality and Europe takes its fate into its own hands, so that europe does not find itself in this same situation in 5 years. Dictated by changing moods in washington and a thirld world country in the east.
Hard times create.. and so forth


Anyway. Thanks trump. Non ironically the faith chazman and fluff has on the "plan" keeps me believing that there's actually a smart plan in play. A plan is in play no doubt about it, but i just hope its a smart one for the west as a whole.

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[Telmar]

for the same reason why sanctions have been in place since 2014
If Ukraine gets back to 1991 borders they should be lifted.

That objective seems difficult.

I think that there are sanctions and sanctions. if Ukraine agrees, many of them can be lifted. Sanctions however are not really efficient.

We should a find a way to monitor their rearmement, which will happen, and make sure we have the hardware, the munitions, and the parts to match another attack.

I think also that France and the UK should have a nuclear umbrella policy outside of NATO. France has broken from the joint command years ago, the UK might want to make the same move.

 

[thelistener]

Not necessarily. It's a dictatorship that kills of It's opposition, with invasion tendencies.

We should expect real changes in the country before opening the trade, otherwise we are just financing their next invasion.

Yeah well, neither; my comment nor yours will happen so they should be kept in place.

 

[Mike1976]

Delaying RuZZia in rebuilding its army. I thought everybody whose IQ is >= 85 takes it as a primary object.
Or, perhaps, are you as naive as your idol, so you believe RuZZia won't attempt to attack Ukraine again?

Of course the Russian army needs to be rebuilt, in Generalissimo Trump's master plan they'll be launching the north-eastern offensive against the distracted PLA forces. Please try to keep up!

 

[HorniePonie]

Regardless of my previous post, I have no inside track on negotiations. But it's obvious many here have never negotiated ANYTHING. Everyone gives up something and everyone gives more than they want. This is not an unconditional surrender by anyone, this is a negotiated peace. I might have posted early on in this thread, that if Ukraine could hang on, this is where we'd be today.

I have a bad hunch, that Russia's only concession is not getting the whole of Ukraine.

 

[Chazman]

I have a bad hunch, that Russia's only concession is not getting the whole of Ukraine.

I'm no geologist, but my understanding is that most of Ukraine's minerals are in the Donbass region. Someone correct me if I'm wrong

 

[Chazman]

Oh, I should have just googled it.

Mapped: Where are Ukraine's mineral resources and why does Trump want them?

More than 50 per cent of Ukraine’s critical rare earth mineral resources are in regions illegally annexed by Vladimir Putin and partially occupied by his forces

www.independent.co.uk

 

[HorniePonie]

Yeah well, neither; my comment nor yours will happen so they should be kept in place.

I would like some things to stay as they are...

 

[Telmar]

I'm no geologist, but my understanding is that most of Ukraine's minerals are in the Donbass region. Someone correct me if I'm wrong

No they are not. The rare Earth is in unoccupied territory. I posted this ealier on this thread. I need to find the map. Coal is in donbass...but it is low value.

Edit: Got it

Trump claims Ukraine "essentially agreed" to give US access to its rare earth minerals - Euromaidan Press

Trump insisted that US access to Ukraine’s resources must be guaranteed, regardless of possible peace talks with Russia, citing America’s alleged $300 billion contribution.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Chazman]

Fckng Cwrd Dck.

Yes, I know.. The war should go on forever, or until there are no Ukrainians left.

 

[Chazman]

I had heard that the rare Earth that Trump wants to seize for compensation of the support given to Ukraine was for 50% in occupied territories.

That does not seem to be the case according to this map:

Trump claims Ukraine "essentially agreed" to give US access to its rare earth minerals - Euromaidan Press

Trump insisted that US access to Ukraine’s resources must be guaranteed, regardless of possible peace talks with Russia, citing America’s alleged $300 billion contribution.

euromaidanpress.com

Different than the map I posted, but I don't know.

 

[Musashi]

Yes, I know.. The war should go on forever, or until there are no Ukrainians left.

That's the thing Ukrainians should decide about.