Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Fluff]

The EU and the UK do not have the production capability to produce enough ammunition and vehicles to keep this war going without the U.S. help. We don't have a fvckton of old vehicles stored in the desert.
Nonetheless, we are unwilling to assist Ukraine with our troops, while the Ukrainian manpower resources are very low. The comedian president is not going to draft young recruits into the army, while they would last for 1-2 more years if he decided to do it. It would not change the situation dramatically.

To hold the line, doesnt need a huge number beyond what they already have, I'd guess they need to train 50,000 per year. To attack, which is what they tried last year, needs much more. They tried, it didn't really work, just as it now doesn't work for Russia, they gain a few metres for 30 dead.

I hope and expect Ukr has a big reserve of tanks and ammo etc. Since the early days with mobile warfare ended, losses really reduced.

For Trump I hope and suspect he is blowing smoke up putin's ass, and when he has him in the Parisian Hotel room, he presents a pretty shitty(for Russia) peace deal. Trump is really ramping up the we will make a deal - if it were me, as Putin I would be very worried, and would ask my team for 50 options, what's the craziest thing Trump could ask for - here's one, take 100K russians, and go guard Israel/Gaza.

this isn't what does Putin want, its what does Trump want. And Elon. biggest thing seems to be 'fair' trade, rather than war/conquest. I bet Elon wants Russians and Ukraine to build space rockets, got to be cheaper than building them in California?

Trump wants the minerals, which would give Ukr money.

I'd also expect trump wants Russia to lean away from china, especially in their re-arm phase.

Ukraine positive points:
they held, their people held
They are dug in
They can build their own long range drones and missiles, neither of which Russia can seem to stop.
Ukraine can refuse to agree, without getting something back - the only thing they want back is land. So Russia has to give back some land 1 to get Ukraine to agree not to keep sending drones, and 2 Russia has to give back some land in exchange for the land Ukr holds in Russia.

Russia cannot with a straight face suggest they can keep their gains, but Ukr has to give up theirs.

As a minimum, they have to trade square KM for Square KM, agree the principle, and let them agree which km.

Russia will want to sell gas to EU, and even to Ukraine. EU will tie this to Russia somehow paying for Ukraine rebuild. In reality this may become EU citizens paying for it, but overall their gas price still comes down.

For Ukraine, they have to become Finland, mine and bunker the borders, a strong standing army, and a huge reserve force. 2-3 Sqn of new F16 or the old UK Eurofighters would be a good start.

 

[Redav]

The biggest irony is having this conference in Munich

 

[Fluff]

The biggest irony is having this conference in Munich

View attachment 518362

I know others, especially central European members, will have a different view, but the British view commonly held, is that he got us time to re-arm, which we did massively, the 300 spitfires in 1940 was zero when he went to Munich. The UK only just turned the invasion away. Maybe there is an alternative timeline where UK and France put 1M troops together, and invaded Germany just to capture the silly artist and hang him.

But only 20 years since the war to end all wars, it would be a soulless man that tried war, rather than peace, first.

And had we done the above, wouldn't Hitler have expanded his deal with Stalin?

 

[Telmar]

True, but Hitler pursued rearmenent as well.

What was disturbing, repeated in the division of Europe after WWII, and is being repeated is discussing about carving territories without the carved territory leaders being present. Putin did not want to have Zelensky at the table, and Trump accepted Putin´s first condition.

But I am really waiting here to see. Trump will have very limited requirements against Russia IMHO. But Putin will want the max, and this will be a test to see if the only country who invoked article V of NATO after 9/11 is now a very very different country than when presided by people such as Ronald Reagan, W Bush.

I know others, especially central European members, will have a different view, but the British view commonly held, is that he got us time to re-arm, which we did massively, the 300 spitfires in 1940 was zero when he went to Munich. The UK only just turned the invasion away. Maybe there is an alternative timeline where UK and France put 1M troops together, and invaded Germany just to capture the silly artist and hang him.

But only 20 years since the war to end all wars, it would be a soulless man that tried war, rather than peace, first.

And had we done the above, wouldn't Hitler have expanded his deal with Stalin?

 

[Telmar]

I had heard that the rare Earth that Trump wants to seize for compensation of the support given to Ukraine was for 50% in occupied territories.

That does not seem to be the case according to this map:

Trump claims Ukraine "essentially agreed" to give US access to its rare earth minerals - Euromaidan Press

Trump insisted that US access to Ukraine’s resources must be guaranteed, regardless of possible peace talks with Russia, citing America’s alleged $300 billion contribution.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Mike1976]

True, but Hitler pursued rearmenent as well.

What was disturbing, repeated in the division of Europe after WWII, and is being repeated is discussing about carving territories without the carved territory leaders being present. Putin did not want to have Zelensky at the table, and Trump accepted Putin´s first condition.

But I am really waiting here to see. Trump will have very limited requirements against Russia IMHO. But Putin will want the max, and this will be a test to see if the only country who invoked article V of NATO after 9/11 is now a very very different country than when presided by people such as Ronald Reagan, W Bush.

Having loads of different parties at the table only makes it easier for Putin to play them against each other as the Europeans are already merrily doing now. You don't send ten managers of an organisation to conduct a negotiation, their CEO does. Europe did too little, too late to have much say at this conference.

- Still no overall strategy for the EU on neither security nor on increasing interoperability/standardization due to domestic manufacturing bias;
- Still no meaningful increase in production capacity;
- Still no meaningful increase in troop numbers;
- Quite a few NATO members still pitifully short of 2% with zero intent to improve;
- Mixed messaging from EU and European NATO leaders on both their organisations and areas of interest like Ukraine;
- Squabbling with their decades long protector and funder because their population voted for the wrong party instead of focussing on the readily apparent external threat;
- Trying to undo the results of elections when the outcome displeases them makes you rather unqualified to lecture someone else on the state of their democracy;
- Prioritizing the wrong things such as the environment and refugees over security and deterrence, especially the former fields that are counterproductive to the latter. Unlimited refugees = less security and going after something like more expensive "green" aviation fuel hurts deterrence instead of strengthening it;
Etc.

All bark and no bite and everyone knows it.

This would be like the managers of Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and the local kart team coming together to discuss next year's F1.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

So it took like 2 posts to enact Godwin's Law?
Stop being disingenuous. You can not compare a modern territorial war to the outright extermination of 6 million Jews that led to our planets largest war ever.

Your statement is slightly off tangent the extermination of 6+Million people was part of the planets largest war, it did not lead to the war itself, for most of the war the claim about the Nazis killing off a large number of the European population was disbelieved until concrete evidence of extermination camps was presented, even then the early reports were not immediately believed as it was considered inconceivable that human beings could perpetrate such acts against others.​

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Telmar]

Having loads of different parties at the table only makes it easier for Putin to play them against each other as the Europeans are already merrily doing now. You don't send ten managers of an organisation to conduct a negotiation, their CEO does. Europe did too little, too late to have much say at this conference.

- Still no overall strategy for the EU on neither security nor on increasing interoperability/standardization due to domestic manufacturing bias;
- Still no meaningful increase in production capacity;
- Still no meaningful increase in troop numbers;
- Quite a few NATO members still pitifully short of 2% with zero intent to improve;
- Mixed messaging from EU and European NATO leaders on both their organisations and areas of interest like Ukraine;
- Squabbling with their decades long protector and funder because their population voted for the wrong party instead of focussing on the readily apparent external threat;
- Trying to undo the results of elections when the outcome displeases them makes you rather unqualified to lecture someone else on the state of their democracy;
- Prioritizing the wrong things such as the environment and refugees over security and deterrence, especially the former fields that are counterproductive to the latter. Unlimited refugees = less security and going after something like more expensive "green" aviation fuel hurts deterrence instead of strengthening it;
Etc.

All bark and no bite and everyone knows it.

This would be like the managers of Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and the local kart team coming together to discuss next year's F1.

We areńt talking about the whole EU here, only Zelensky.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[primer]

One thng about Trump, if compared to previous admins, Iraq would not have happened.

 

[thelistener]

We have several EU Trump-lovers here, but they should realise that Make America Great Again always comes at somebody else's expense. Unfortunately, it will be at the EU's expense as well.

some of those members do not care, i feel like. they would see europe burn if it meant that it "owned the libs"

 

[Musashi]

The choice for the environment over jobs, security, competitiveness, sovereignty, deterrence etc is logical from an EU perspective as the politicians and the NGOs enabling them are idealists, not realists. The EU is an oil tanker with the rudder firmly lodged to the extreme left.

Somebody votes for these politicians and they are not Polish people who do it, as left-wing parties have a very low support rate in Poland (5-7%) and they don't enter the parliament regularly.

Taiwan isn't in NATO charter territory and just like in the case of Iraq I don't foresee many countries going along with the US to that extent. The countries that really need to stay on the US' Nice List are pretty much all nations without any credible navy.

A Chinese-American war would get out of control pretty quickly and the #ChinaVirusDevelopers have the capability of attacking the U.S. mainland with ballistic missiles. I don't mean they would need to be nuclear missiles. The NATO Article 5 would apply there, as it did after 9/11.

Freedom of Navigation posturing in the South China Sea is one thing, sending what little naval assets they have to fight China in their own backyard is quite another.

China may attack us without any warning in the Pacific if the Great Leader feels strong enough to do it. There must be a reason for them investing in their navy which has become the biggest navy in the world. They don't have the U.S. experience in commanding a big navy, but they heavily invest in new technologies and have more hypersonic missiles than the entire West combined. Due to holding RuZZia by the balls and getting heavily discounted gas and oil, they can develop even more rapidly now.

 

[Musashi]

It looks like I predicted the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe just a few hours before this article was published:

Map shows where US troops are in Europe as Trump threatens withdrawal

There are 65,754 active-duty troops across United States European Command countries.

www.newsweek.com

The Orcs must have a big feast over it now. Make RuZZia Great Again by Trump.

 

[PegAsus]

This is a good description of the situation, for everyone who is a bit slow on the uptake...

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[PegAsus]

It looks like I predicted the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe just a few hours before this article was published:

Map shows where US troops are in Europe as Trump threatens withdrawal

There are 65,754 active-duty troops across United States European Command countries.

www.newsweek.com

The Orcs must have a big feast over it now. Make RuZZia Great Again by Trump.

What a small-minded person he must be... If you don't applaud me for my great plan, then we'll withdraw our troops...
Then have fun with the next missions on the other side of the world, without bases in Europe...

 

[primer]

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