This morning's analysis by a "normal" Russian blogger , Volya: "Ukrainian armed forces have pushed more than 20 kilometres through the Russian defences in the direction of Orekhovsky. Tokmak, which together with Polohy is the supply centre of the Russian armed forces in this part of Zaporizhzhya, is still about 15 km away. Beyond Tokmak there is a direct road to Melitopol, 64 km away, a four to five hour armoured vehicle journey.It is highly likely that the Russian armed forces will try to hold Tokmak. For this purpose, units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division and the regiment of the (incomplete) Airborne Regiment, which was flooded after the dam burst, as well as other units have been transferred from the Herszon region.According to an officer at the Russian headquarters in Melitopol, the reserves in the Zaporizhzhya area are almost completely exhausted. Almost all combat-ready units and equipment were also withdrawn from the Herszon region. "I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow, on Russia Day, the AFU congratulates Putin from Melitopol," says a Russian staff officer. I have little confidence in such a rapid advance by Ukrainian units. The fighting is fierce. But the Russian armed forces' lack of reserves and the incipient problems with ammunition, equipment and water suggest a good chance of liberating Melitopol in the more or less near future. In this case, what matters is not speed, but avoiding unnecessary losses.The Russian armed forces are preparing for defence. In recent days, there have been several reports that Russian troops have undermined irrigation works, flooding fields with water and making them unfit for armoured vehicles.These actions may have had unexpected consequences for the Russian Armed Forces (the Russian army has a difficult relationship with dams and dikes), as officers stationed between Tokmak and Melitopol have reported that water problems have started to occur in several units. What is available in the villages is either undrinkable or has dried up. One officer said that the previous day soldiers had been collecting rainwater. Whether this is true or not, we cannot verify, but our interlocutors are increasingly talking about water shortages.Towards Gulyaypol, the AFU has almost surrounded (at the time of writing, probably completely surrounded) the town of Polohy. Polohy is another key supply point for the Russian armed forces. Control of Polohy will allow movement towards Tokmak-Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk, as well as rapid access to the rear of the Russian formations holding back the Ukrainian offensive at the junction of the Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk regions. .A successful advance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area would expose Russian forces holding positions near Staryomlynovka in Donetsk region to the threat of encirclement.There, fighting remains fierce, but according to scattered reports from both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, the AFU is close to taking Staryomlynovka and reaching Volnovaka at the same time. The liberation of Staryomlyivka will allow Ukrainian forces to bypass Volnovaka from the west and move towards Berdynansk and Mariupol.The Russian troops remaining in the Kherson area (about 5,500) are preparing a defensive line 30-40 km from the Dnieper. The fortifications that were diligently dug and built in 2022 are now abandoned and unusable.All the more or less new and combat-ready equipment from the Herszon area to Tokmak, together with reinforcements, has also been transferred. Those that remain have old tanks and BMPs and complain of a shortage of ammunition for guns, small arms and equipment.Air defence has also been transferred from the Herszon region to the Zaporizhzhya region, according to the Russian army.The encirclement of Bakhmut continues. The Ukrainian armed forces have liberated Yagodne, and Ukrainian units are entering Bakhmut from the north and northeast. The AFU continues to push south of the town. Russian armed forces are also losing positions east of Soledar. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian armed forces are deploying reserves in this direction. The Russian troops do not have any there, and the Ukrainians do not see the need to deploy fresh units.LikeCommentSend
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