The Russian army achieved its first significant tactical success north of Bakhmut at Soledar since the capture of Severodonyeck at the end of June. Most of the town is now firmly under their control, along with parts of the surrounding settlements.
At the end of last year, they managed to capture Yakovlivka, north-east of Soledar. This allowed them to attack from several directions. A few days ago, they managed to take control of Bakhmutske, and their troops continued to advance towards Krasna Hora and Pidhorodne, the latter of which they managed to take by march.
The situation of the Soledar defences became critical and they retreated from the centre of the town to the Mokra Plotva river. Here, on the basis of information that seemed certain, they managed to stabilise their position. In the next few days it will be decided whether they can push the Russians back from the area around the salt mine. Otherwise, there could be an organised retreat to the Bakhmutovka River, which bisects the eponymous town.
In recent weeks, the Russians have besieged the town of Bakhmut, which has become a symbol of the war, without any significant results. After capturing Yakovlivka, however, they made a major redeployment 10 kilometres to the north, which finally brought them success.
The tactics of the attacks were also revised. The Ukrainian lines are attacked with 5-15 reconnaissance units in several waves. After identifying the defensive positions, the artillery follows, followed again by a series of infantry attacks until the position is overrun. If this reminds you of the First World War, you are not far wrong. The Russians admittedly suffered terrible casualties in the break-up of the Ukrainian positions around Soledar, but since Wagner has so far recruited 40,000 Russian prisoners whose lives they do not care about as much as those of ordinary civilian mobilised, this method can be implemented without further ado.
In the siege of Soledar, besides the Wagner, the Airborne Division (VDV) and the Spetznaz also took part. Alongside Wagner's more experienced units, they carried out the 'finishing' attacks, which were opened up by the constant onslaught of Wagner's lower-ranking troops.
The situation has not yet been definitively decided, but if the Ukrainians are forced to abandon the left bank of the Bakhmutskove, it will also make the defence of Bakhmut considerably more difficult, as part of the supply routes will come under Russian fire control. Of course, it is a big question how long the Russians can maintain this kind of offensive tactic, but if they can get to the river, they will consider it a major success. If this is achieved, the attack could become strategically important, as it would put pressure on Siversk from the south and with it the planned Ukrainian attack on Kreminna.
There is no doubt that the Ukrainian command was caught unawares by the Russian redeployment and reportedly made several mistakes. Their communication for weeks has been that the situation in Bakhmut is difficult but under control. From this starting point, two possible scenarios can be envisaged. One is that they have estimated the strength of their forces to defend the town on the basis of the intensity of the attacks, have massed them in the area and have partially rested the rest of their troops and partially redirected them to their planned offensive either to Kremlin or to the south. The other possibility is that this is all they have at the moment. We don't know which is the real hypothesis at the moment, but if there is no major Ukrainian offensive on either front in January, the latter is the case.
Although the defences of the town of Bakhmut appear to be solid, the fall of Soledar is a sign that the flanks were not properly defended and/or that there was an intelligence failure in monitoring Russian troop movements. The crisis situation in Soledar appears to have been met with a hasty and confused response, unlike before, when available reserves were deployed almost simultaneously to defend the town, resulting in communication chaos. By the time this had been overcome, the Russians had taken most of the city with a steady infantry assault. The latter requires only a lower level of co-ordination, if one unit is destroyed the next is sent in until progress is made.
In the afternoon came the news that Soygu had replaced Surovikin and appointed Gerasimov, the overlooked chief of staff, as commander-in-chief of the invasion. Surovikin had been in command for barely three months and had been replaced despite having carried out the Russian army's most successful operation, the retreat from Herson. More interestingly, unlike the Soygu-Gerasimov pair, he had a particularly good relationship with Wagner leader Prigozhin, so the move could also foreshadow the possibility that if the former chef, who has been a fierce critic of the Ministry of Defence, cannot make a breakthrough around Bakhmut in the short term, he could lose the support of the army.
It is not impossible that we are witnessing Wagner's last stand around Soledar. The consequences of this possibility are as yet unforeseeable, but it will certainly not be good for the Russian campaign.
According to reports this evening, the situation in Soledar has stabilised, but the next few days will undoubtedly be critical. The big question is whether the Russians can sustain such a devastation of their living forces, and whether the Ukrainians can sort out their ranks after the chaos of the last few days. If the Russians gain the upper hand, the front will certainly stop at the Bakhmutske River. Otherwise, the Ukrainians could be pushed out of Soledar and it could start all over again, now without the element of surprise.
It is also worth bearing in mind that the Russians have always suffered their major defeats in war after forcing their attacks to the point of exhaustion in a particular place, and when they got the push back they could not stand and had to retreat.
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KARD
Szeverodonyeck június végi elfoglalása óta az első jelentősnek mondható taktikai sikerét érte el az orosz hadsereg Bakhmuttól északra Szoledarnál. A város nagy része egészen biztosan az ellenőrzésük...
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