Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[Mike1976]

Israel hits 20 sites in Beirut within 2 minutes, in major offensive ahead of truce

Extensive wave of strikes on Hezbollah assets comes hours before ceasefire is expected to be okayed; IDF troops reach Lebanon's Litani River for first time since 2000

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Mike1976]

Israel announces preliminary work on fence along entire border with Jordan

Defense Ministry ordered by Katz to begin engineering planning, including environmental survey and installation of surveillance infrastructure, along 309-kilometer border

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[m208]

I don’t think Israel has its public’s support to repeat another war in Lebanon at this time.

Not sure, but it seems like for the Israelis, just having Hezbollah on their border was reason enough to push this war to the very end, aiming to eliminate the threat entirely. Israel can’t always launch a full-scale war with public support, so they might have seen this as a rare opportunity. That’s just my speculation, though—Israeli posters here could provide better insight.


As for the situation now, I’d call it a ceasefire, not a truce. It looks like things will be assessed day by day, week by week. The offensive likely stopped because Israel received guarantees that Hezbollah would disarm and step back. Israel will probably monitor closely how Hezbollah and the Lebanese government follow through. If they don’t stick to the terms of the ceasefire, it could have serious consequences.

Time will tell

 

[m208]

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[CemalPasha]

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[Mike1976]

Well well well, Europe making up legislation as they go and selectively enforcing it, again?

France says Netanyahu, Gallant have immunity from ICC charges, won’t arrest them

Paris says that while it respects the international justice system, Israel's leaders cannot be held accountable by The Hague as the country is not an ICC member

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Mike1976]

IDF says it hit Hezbollah’s largest precision missile production site hours before truce

Military says underground complex that stretched for 1.4 kilometers was terror group's most strategically significant weapons-making site

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[CemalPasha]

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[Chazman]

The real story, folks.

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[Fluff]

The real story, folks.

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I’m just wondering if France or anyone else has some old SAM designs, that they can sell to Iran. Great time to be Sam salesman, or an f35 detector, etc etc.

 

[TheKiwi]

I have an F-35 detector that works by detecting changes in the Frazzzle Layer of atmosphere which are recombinant with a core of solid quantanium to point towards any F-35 in the area. For Iran, I'll sell them 100 units for the bargain price of US$100 million. The fact that they look exactly like a box full of wire coat hangers is entirely coincidental.

 

[Fluff]

I have an F-35 detector that works by detecting changes in the Frazzzle Layer of atmosphere which are recombinant with a core of solid quantanium to point towards any F-35 in the area. For Iran, I'll sell them 100 units for the bargain price of US$100 million. The fact that they look exactly like a box full of wire coat hangers is entirely coincidental.

Here’s my pager number….

 

[IDF_TANKER]

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[IDF_TANKER]

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The last one is an interesting point. I completely forgot Israel still has the Hezzies IDF captured during the last operation. Kind of mind boggling Hezzies gave up one them.

 

[m208]

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The last one is an interesting point. I completely forgot Israel still has the Hezzies IDF captured during the last operation. Kind of mind boggling Hezzies gave up one them.

Why 59 days? What happens after that? Does Israel withdraw and cease all their air, land, and sea operations? And then what?

 

[m208]

The resurgence of the Syrian rebels with a surprise offensive could indeed shift the dynamics on the ground. Capturing cities from the regime and its allies signals renewed organization, resources, and potential external support for the rebels.

If they manage to sustain momentum and push toward Homs, it would be a significant development. Homs is a strategic city and a vital hub for regime control, connecting Damascus to the coast and other strongholds. Capturing the Syrian-Lebanese border would also disrupt supply lines and potentially cut off Hezbollah's access to key routes supporting the regime.

However, such moves might provoke a harsh response from the regime, Hezbollah, and their allies, possibly involving increased airstrikes or reinforcements from external actors like Russia or Iran. The coming days will likely reveal whether this offensive is a temporary gain or part of a larger shift in the conflict.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-rebels-launch-attack-against-army-aleppo-province-2024-11-27/

 

[Ivan le Fou]

I’m just wondering if France or anyone else has some old SAM designs, that they can sell to Iran. Great time to be Sam salesman, or an f35 detector, etc etc.

Most of our stuff got handed over to Ukraine.

We might have some hardware mothballed, along with a few AMX30B2, but these are for emergency measures only. We don't have any surplus.

 

[IDF_TANKER]

Why 59 days? What happens after that? Does Israel withdraw and cease all their air, land, and sea operations? And then what?

The official reason - a trial period before the final arrangement, whatever it is. To see if the "peace" holds etc.

The real reason... I'll give you a hint - almost exactly two months from the date of ceasefire a certain Orange Man is going to assume a certain very important Office. Of course, by a completely surprising coincidence two months happens to be the duration of ceasefire.

That will open a range of possibilities, which don't exist right now. There is a talk in town about creating a buffer zone along the northern border, preventing the return of residents to the Hezbollah aligned Shia villages and making them permanently depopulated.

IDF also badly needs a break - especially the reservists, which is the bulk of the fighting force. Also, IDF needs to replenish its ammo stockpiles - those JDAMs and explosives used to demolish the Hezzi infrastructure don't exactly grow on trees. Not to mention the quiet embargo by the Biden admin, which also takes its toll.

So, this is the rationale in the nutshell - Israel takes a break, sacrificing virtually nothing, possibly accelerates deal with Hamas (Hezzies out of equation, Hamas loses its last real leverage, beside the hostages). If the gods of peace bestow upon us their grace - great. If not, with Trump in the office new course of action will be considered with new options on the table.

 

[m208]

The official reason - a trial period before the final arrangement, whatever it is. To see if the "peace" holds etc.

The real reason... I'll give you a hint - almost exactly two months from the date of ceasefire a certain Orange Man is going to assume a certain very important Office. Of course, by a completely surprising coincidence two months happens to be the duration of ceasefire.

That will open a range of possibilities, which don't exist right now. There is a talk in town about creating a buffer zone along the northern border, preventing the return of residents to the Hezbollah aligned Shia villages and making them permanently depopulated.

IDF also badly needs a break - especially the reservists, which is the bulk of the fighting force. Also, IDF needs to replenish its ammo stockpiles - those JDAMs and explosives used to demolish the Hezzi infrastructure don't exactly grow on trees. Not to mention the quite embargo by the Biden admin, which also takes it toll.

So this is the rationale in the nutshell - Israel takes a break, sacrificing virtually nothing, possibly accelerates deal with Hamas (Hezzies out of equation, Hamas loses its last real leverage, beside the hostages). If the gods of peace bestow upon us their grace - great. If not, with Trump in the office new course of action will be considered with new options on the table.

Mhm, great analysis. It’s interesting to see how Israel will distinguish between Hizbullah and ordinary Shiite citizens returning home—unless the bordering villages end up becoming ghost towns altogether. Let’s see how it unfolds. Honestly, most of us here are cautious about Hizbullah. They’re always looking for an opportunity to restock. But again, we’re relying on Israel’s vigilance to prevent that.


I suppose we’ll have to wait until, as I like to call him, “Emperor Trump” takes office. Once again, excellent analysis on the matter.

 

[IDF_TANKER]

Mhm, great analysis. It’s interesting to see how Israel will distinguish between Hizbullah and ordinary Shiite citizens returning home—unless the bordering villages end up becoming ghost towns altogether. Let’s see how it unfolds. Honestly, most of us here are cautious about Hizbullah. They’re always looking for an opportunity to restock. But again, we’re relying on Israel’s vigilance to prevent that.


I suppose we’ll have to wait until, as I like to call him, “Emperor Trump” takes office. Once again, excellent analysis on the matter.

There is no such possibility. IDF says it can't in principle prevent from people returning home with disassembled AKs and handguns hidden somewhere in their backyards. This is not the point of it. The point is to prevent presence of organized fighting force with all the necessary infrastructure and heavy armament necessary to conduct an October 7 type of attack.