Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[Fluff]

It takes ballistic missiles 12 minutes to get from western Iran to Israel (~1500km) at mach 3 or 4. They're on mobile launchers that are fueled inside man-made caves and driven out ready to fire. In all you get about 30 minutes from visual notification until impact.

Countering ballistic missile launchers from a carrier would mean having dozens of aircraft in the air (even a US supercarrier doesn't have an airwing large enough to keep dozens of aircraft in the air 24/7 for multiple days).

Those aircraft are at best equipped with a pair of AGM-158 JASSM-ER cruise missiles. With a range of a little over 900km these travel at subsonic speeds meaning to cover that distance it'll need close to an hour.

181 ballistic missiles were fired in two waves. Let's say 90 launchers were used. One cruise missile can take out one launcher. That would require 45 aircraft with zero misses.

And the aircraft would need to be flying over the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman, within range of Iranian air defences.

My conclussion: Only ballistic missiles can counter ballistic missiles before they launch (or a space laser )

Gulf war 1, the entire Air Force struggled to take out a few dozen scud launchers.

But the Iranian missiles show the same limited ability, they are failing, getting shot down, missing. Some are getting through. Actual military impact, limited.

So you don’t go for the launchers, you go for the storage sites, the vehicle assembly factory, etc. and the barracks where the troops live/sleep.

Israel has the ability to do this.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

"Accuracy through volume".

Out of the 200+ they launched a few a destined to go through, even more so since the ABM systems aren't as nimble as the Iron Dome.

The problem with the storage sites is that they are located deep inside mountain complexes, and considering the amount of bombs it took to reach Nasrallah, it would take a tremendous one to breach these mountains. I assume, that is.

 

[Mike1976]

Macron forgot history...

View attachment 501203

There are many things Macron forgot.

And many things he does not know.

History and how the lead are only two of these.

Politicians always forget history if the history doesn't suit their current agenda.

 

[Mike1976]

"Accuracy through volume".

Out of the 200+ they launched a few a destined to go through, even more so since the ABM systems aren't as nimble as the Iron Dome.
---
The problem with the storage sites is that they are located deep inside mountain complexes, and considering the amount of bombs it took to reach Nasrallah, it would take a tremendous one to breach these mountains. I assume, that is.

What happend on Oct. 1 is more a matter of oversaturation than lack of maneuverability of the launchers or the range or maneuverability of the interceptors imo. Israel was lucky that the Iranians had warned that they were going to attack the airbases so Israel could move the expensive stuff out. That meant that excluding these locations from the AD system coverage freed up interceptors to engage missiles on other trajectories (not saying that's what happened, but it might have happened seeing the number of missiles that hit close together and the lack of hits at other targeted locations).
---
In the Cold War this was meant to be done with nuclear bunker busters. Those were gotten rid of for political purposes and now there's only conventional ones left that have to fulfil the role. Of course that role for the last 35 years has been blowing terrorists out of their hideouts instead of nuking the Soviet central command, so I doubt the hardest targets can be taken out without spending a ridiculous amount of ordnance as you say.

Only a nuke can take out Cheyenne mountain and that's imo what it would take to destroy the Iranian storage sites. Unless they're complete idiots the launchers will also also stored in separate areas with blast-proof doors and angled tunnels so even if you get through to a launcher it won't daisy chain to more than a handful of launchers and/or items used to operate them. They've stored their missiles the way we store nuclear waste.

 

[Fluff]

"Accuracy through volume".

Out of the 200+ they launched a few a destined to go through, even more so since the ABM systems aren't as nimble as the Iron Dome.

The problem with the storage sites is that they are located deep inside mountain complexes, and considering the amount of bombs it took to reach Nasrallah, it would take a tremendous one to breach these mountains. I assume, that is.

Yanks and Israelis have had 20+ years to look at this problem.

If they can create the hellfire with x blades, they can create something for this.

For the hezzies bunker, Israel just dropped bomb after bomb, 56 in total. With time on target, you could drop them inside of 5 minutes, you don’t need to assess after each bomb.

Or go all Ukraine, and fly fpv down the air vent….

 

[Mike1976]

For the hezzies bunker, Israel just dropped bomb after bomb, 56 in total. With time on target, you could drop them inside of 5 minutes, you don’t need to assess after each bomb.

Israel can loiter over Lebanon as long as it wants when the Hezbollah AD consists of an AK + hopes and prayers. If you loiter over a target long enough even the stealthiest aircraft is going to be found eventually and I'll hazard a guess that the majority of Iranian AD systems are located in three main places: 1) around Teheran 2) near their natural resource extraction and export facilities and 3) guarding their strategic deterrent.

 

[Fluff]

Israel can loiter over Lebanon as long as it wants when the Hezbollah AD consists of an AK + hopes and prayers. If you loiter over a target long enough even the stealthiest aircraft is going to be found eventually and I'll hazard a guess that the majority of Iranian AD systems are located in three main places: 1) around Teheran 2) near their natural resource extraction and export facilities and 3) guarding their strategic deterrent.

Israel has been offing air defense for years. Their f35 fleet would decimate anything Iran has. Then f15 come in, and drop penetrators.

This ignores any alternative or as we now call them, pager, attacks.

I’d have a very high level of confidence of Israel delivering an impressive and precise, and effective strike, over the next few days.

 

[Vorph]

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Christ on a bike, talk about falling off the wagon- Colin Powel's former chief of staff ladies and gentleman...

 

[Mike1976]

Something enormous just went up in Beirut.

 

[Vorph]

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[Vorph]

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Underground launch silos?

 

[Fluff]

Something enormous just went up in Beirut.

Please select:

Hospital

Orphanage

School

 

[Mike1976]

Please select:

Hospital

Orphanage

School

Whichever has the biggest storage capacity.

 

[Vorph]

Meanwhile in London...

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[Vorph]

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"Stephen Kapo"

 

[Vorph]

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Saying the quiet part out loud...

 

[m208]

tonight at 12:00 am the fireworks starts.....Iran gonna turn to Disneyland

 

[m208]

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[Ivan le Fou]

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Underground launch silos?

Iranians have created launch positions in their "missile mountain".

Not really silos per say, at least not the conventional ICBM silo, but rather chambers where TELs are rolled in and the missile erected under a hole in the ceiling.

Mil News Post in thread 'Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding'

Jul 19, 2022

Iranian missile "Lauch Portal".

• Ivan le Fou

• 
• 
• 

 

[BravoZulu]

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To be fair, they are being told to go in via another gate where non Pally supporters are being given access. The whole point of keeping this particular gate for Pally supporters is to try and stop factions being mixed together and to try and nip violence in the bud before it starts.

I'm not a supporter of Trudeau by any means but this is a nothing burger