Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, October 2023

A few thoughts on the recent hostage deal.
Earlier on this thread I made a few posts about how this war can be viewed as a horrible case of our (us vs Palis) mutual misunderstanding.
I've been wondering since the beginning of the hostage deal why would they give up the biggest strategic asset (from our perspective) - the women and children, given our incredible sensitivity and vulnerability when it comes to them being hostages. I start coming to realization that this was yet another case of them utterly failing to understand us.
In short, in the ME Arab,and especially Bedouin, culture (about 80% of Gazans are Bedouins) women occupy the lowest possible place in tribal social hierarchy - essentially a tribe owned baby making resource, a walking womb. A little illustration: if a Bedouin asked how many children he has, in most cases the answer wouldn't even include the daughters. Also, the honor killings, polygamy, trading brides for cattle etc etc.
My thesis, they simply didn't quite understand that by giving us back the women and children (from their perspective a borderline meaningless gesture, a total bargain) they relieve us from our biggest, most acute pain (and accordingly internal pressure), when it comes to hostages - essentially giving Israel freedom of action until the war is finished. From their perspective the men, especially the soldiers, are the strategic asset they are supposed to keep until the end, when the final deal is going to be worked out.
Which would match with their previous experience of hostage taking, which was the odd Israeli soldier, mostly. I also think Hamas have struggled to feed and keep secure all these hostages, several escaped during bombings etc. And it hasnt really got them anything, other than a much higher level of hatred, than the normal level.

They traded 100 of them for a short term break, which Israel has also enjoyed.
 
I think Hamas may be setting objectives and strategy based on pre 10/7 experience. Israel is not.

A terrorist organization must determine when the wind has shifted, and thus adjust direction. Hamas senior leadership may (may) have done this, and are currently planning on having the field element destroyed at any cost to the people who live in Gaza. New objective is probably the survival and positioning of external leadership.
 
They traded 100 of them for a short term break, which Israel has also enjoyed.
Every week that Israel has to keep so many people mobilized their economy alone is losing $600m in lost productivity. Farm labor is already a massive problem because they also lost cheap labor from Gaza.
 
I think Hamas may be setting objectives and strategy based on pre 10/7 experience. Israel is not.

A terrorist organization must determine when the wind has shifted, and thus adjust direction. Hamas senior leadership may (may) have done this, and are currently planning on having the field element destroyed at any cost to the people who live in Gaza. New objective is probably the survival and positioning of external leadership.
 
Every week that Israel has to keep so many people mobilized their economy alone is losing $600m in lost productivity. Farm labor is already a massive problem because they also lost cheap labor from Gaza.


taking these looses now is much better than taking 10 folds these looses in the next war
 
Thanks Hiryu, I didn't realise Camera had a website for US media as well, they do such damn good analysis, really cut through the bullcrap.

On that note:


The death figures are coming from two supposed Hamas health departments, with one saying it isn't possible to keep up with the numbers and another somehow miraculously reporting the "real" death toll as it comes...

On those who are actual Hamas militants:

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Over 5,000 dead Hamas terrorists so far. I think most of us have seen that "child civilian" handing an rpg round to one of the fighters in one of their propaganda videos, who wants to bet some of the children are actually child soldiers..?
 
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Keep dreaming, because that's all it is now. You'll be disappointed when you realise it's actually just one 72 year old virgin... 🙃
 
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taking these looses now is much better than taking 10 folds these looses in the next war
but be careful, the laws of war and the human shield are not as simple as they describe
 
but be careful, the laws of war and the human shield are not as simple as they describe


in this case, yes it is ...its very simple.... here's the formula..... israel is dealing with an enemy that have no consideration for human life...... abolishing israel from existence is their creed...... with such people there is one way out and one way only.... usage of extreme lethal force to eleminate that threat at the expense of anything and everything is the only way out.

Israel is paying a hefty price now withgaza because they "and im sorry to say it" coward out in 2006 against hezbola.... everyone in lebanon in 2006 were counting on israel to wipe out hizbola with the usage of extreme force..... israel didnt.... why? because they were more worried about what the world would say about them then their own safety.

and i say it now.... israel biggest threat isnt gaza ,iran,syria,jordan,egypt.... its hezbolla........ israel should make it clear and simple..... nuking south of lebanon and beirut suburbs asap or hezbola hands out all their armament .. period
 
in this case, yes it is ...its very simple.... here's the formula..... israel is dealing with an enemy that have no consideration for human life...... abolishing israel from existence is their creed...... with such people there is one way out and one way only.... usage of extreme lethal force to eleminate that threat at the expense of anything and everything is the only way out.

Israel is paying a hefty price now withgaza because they "and im sorry to say it" coward out in 2006 against hezbola.... everyone in lebanon in 2006 were counting on israel to wipe out hizbola with the usage of extreme force..... israel didnt.... why? because they were more worried about what the world would say about them then their own safety.

and i say it now.... israel biggest threat isnt gaza ,iran,syria,jordan,egypt.... its hezbolla........ israel should make it clear and simple..... nuking south of lebanon and beirut suburbs asap or hezbola hands out all their armament .. period
no.
The Effect of Shielding for the Other Side

Article 51(8) of Additional Protocol I provides, “Any violation of these prohibitions shall not release the Parties to the conflict from their legal obligations with respect to the civilian population and civilians, including the obligation to take the precautionary measures provided for in Article 57.” Although the provision mentions only Article 57’s obligation to take precautions in attack to achieve a comparable effect with less risk to civilians, such as striking other targets or using other weapons systems, it logically encompasses other IHL protections. The most important of these are the prohibition on directly targeting civilians (art. 51(2)) and the rule of proportionality (arts. 51(5) & 57(2)). Since Russia is Party to the Protocol, it cannot argue that military necessity somehow relieved its forces of their targeting law obligations.

The DoD Law of War Manual agrees (§ 5.16.4) but cautions that the use of shields “may impair the attacking force’s ability to discriminate and increase the risk of harm to protected persons and objects” (§ 5.16.4, see also 5.4.4). This has long been the U.S. position, as noted in the Department of Defense’s Final Report on the 1991 Gulf War.

As correctly stated in Article 51(8) of Protocol I, a nation confronted with callous actions by its opponent (such as the use of “human shields”) is not released from its obligation to exercise reasonable precaution to minimize collateral injury to the civilian population or damage to civilian objects. This obligation was recognized by Coalition forces in the conduct of their operations.

But then, the Report notes that “this concept tends to facilitate the disinformation campaign of a callous opponent by focusing international public opinion upon the obligation of the attacking force to minimize collateral civilian casualties and damage to civilian objects—a result fully consistent with Iraq’s strategy in this regard.” Indeed, in this conflict, Russia has been engaged in an aggressive disinformation (lawfare) campaign designed to shift blame for civilian casualties to Ukraine, a campaign to which human shielding might nefariously contribute.

Such concern has led the United States to adopt a cautious stance with regard to the effect of a party’s use of human shielding on its opponent’s military operations. Thus, the DoD Law of War Manual asserts, “[w]hen the attacking force causes harms that are the responsibility of the defending force due to its use of voluntary human shields or due to the employment of civilian personnel in or on military objectives, the responsibility of the defending force is a factor that may be considered in determining whether such harm is excessive” (§ 5.12.1.4).
 
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Zero surprise in this for anyone familiar with the ME politics. Muslim Brotherhood is the bigger threat to virtually every regime in ME, than for Israel. Not only they are OK with this, they have been actively, almost directly, helping Israel by providing unprecedented humanitarian aid, including field hospitals, thus alleviating humanitarian crisis, which is the biggest obstacle for Israel to finish the job.
I said it before on this thread, the only thing, which can potentially jeopardize the Abraham Accords (Saudis included) is Israel showing weakness by not finishing Hamas in Gaza.
 
Zero surprise in this for anyone familiar with the ME politics. Muslim Brotherhood is the bigger threat to virtually every regime in ME, than for Israel. Not only they are OK with this, they have been actively, almost directly, helping Israel by providing unprecedented humanitarian aid, including field hospitals, thus alleviating humanitarian crisis, which is the biggest obstacle for Israel to finish the job.
I said it before on this thread, the only thing, which can potentially jeopardize the Abraham Accords (Saudis included) is Israel showing weakness by not finishing Hamas in Gaza.
I think that is exactly what they want in order to go forward with the Abraham Accords. A decisive and thorough defeat of Hamas. They do not want to cut a deal that leads to future chaos.
 
Zero surprise in this for anyone familiar with the ME politics. Muslim Brotherhood is the bigger threat to virtually every regime in ME, than for Israel. Not only they are OK with this, they have been actively, almost directly, helping Israel by providing unprecedented humanitarian aid, including field hospitals, thus alleviating humanitarian crisis, which is the biggest obstacle for Israel to finish the job.
I said it before on this thread, the only thing, which can potentially jeopardize the Abraham Accords (Saudis included) is Israel showing weakness by not finishing Hamas in Gaza.
Agree with both. I believe the deal is done, hamas needs to be gone.

I also expect Egypt to temporarily take the Gazans into Sinai, while Gaza is rebuilt, with better security, I.e. internal security walls, x-ray checkpoints, the people will only be let back in with biometrics taken. Schools will be run by egypt and Jordan, and the mosques.

Then Israel can try to reach some agreement with west bank. Wont be perfect, but better than what everyone currently has.
 
Agree with both. I believe the deal is done, hamas needs to be gone.

I also expect Egypt to temporarily take the Gazans into Sinai, while Gaza is rebuilt, with better security, I.e. internal security walls, x-ray checkpoints, the people will only be let back in with biometrics taken. Schools will be run by egypt and Jordan, and the mosques.

Then Israel can try to reach some agreement with west bank. Wont be perfect, but better than what everyone currently has.
 

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