Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[Chazman]

SecDef Pete smokes the corrupt press.

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[BeNder]

Interesting

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[primer]

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The nightmare for Israeli intelligence officials is that Iran spirited some of this material away to unknown labs where it could be fashioned into a “crude” device.

This is a relatively unsophisticated warhead which has not been miniaturised and mounted onto a ballistic missile.

Instead, it would have to be manually delivered to its target – smuggled into Tel Aviv in a truck, for example – before being detonated.

Although US-Iran talks had been ongoing for many weeks before Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israel’s unilateral attack on Iran, progress was understood to have stalled because Iran refused to dismantle its enrichment process.

The report in Israel Hayom suggests Mr Trump believes the destruction wrought by both Israel and America over the past week will force the Islamic Republic to soften its stance.

Isreal wants an article inserted into any peace agreement demanding any enriched material is handed over.
It would have to relly on weapons inspectors having complete freedom of movement.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

 

[primer]

In return for?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Iran having a civilian nuclear energy program has always been an option everybody agreed on.

 

[PegAsus]

Interesting

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This would be a huge thing, if its true...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Indeed, but also sounds a bit too good to be true.

The Ayatollahs hiding in bunkers is plausible.

The Army running things is also plausible.

But the tone used by the military these past few days does not quite match this alleged desire for peace and change. Unless, what is shown to the public is only to preserve a semblance of a façade.
But then, why bother?

If the Mullahs and Ayatollahs are about to be thrown out, which would be a good thing and ushering, hopefully, a new and better age for Iran, why keeping up the charade?

 

[Hiryu2.0]

This would be a huge thing, if its true...

Hopium.

 

[m208]

what are these secondery fireworks

Lebanese media reports a series of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon a short while ago.

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[PegAsus]

what are these secondery fireworks

Lebanese media reports a series of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon a short while ago.

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Looks to me like propellant charges from rockets...

 

[IDF_TANKER]

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Poor guy, just can't get it up.

 

[FLYNAVY]

Indeed, but also sounds a bit too good to be true.

The Ayatollahs hiding in bunkers is plausible.

The Army running things is also plausible.

But the tone used by the military these past few days does not quite match this alleged desire for peace and change. Unless, what is shown to the public is only to preserve a semblance of a façade.
But then, why bother?

If the Mullahs and Ayatollahs are about to be thrown out, which would be a good thing and ushering, hopefully, a new and better age for Iran, why keeping up the charade?

If we've been paying attention over the last week the inevitably of the past 40 years of Iran getting a nuclear weapon to threaten the whole world, which was the master plan of the Ayatollahs to convert the world to one world religion of Islam, has been obliterated. The conversations of peace have been with the Iranian military & not the Ayatollahs who as you say are hiding in a bunker. In simple terms, the Iranian military are tired, they've felt this way for the last 20 years but saw no way out. They like me are tired of fighting endless wars with nothing changing or ending. We want to enjoy the simple pleasures, like all normal people, watching our children grow up, enjoying growing old with the woman we love, enjoying grandchildren.....etc. If we've guessed/trusted the Iranian military, with a little help & a lot of luck can fix their Country, most Iranians are good people they just need to be given a chance of peace & prosperity. If we've guessed correctly the Iranian Generals that would have been the next Dictator are no longer breathing. I will pray hard & look forward to watching the little pieces fall into place & will sit by the fire some nights & tell how this happened to my grand children. If you're a religious person there have been a few signs that things have been put in place, hand of God type stuff will be explained or you'll figure it out. Course if all this goes south I'll disavow all of this, we gave it our best shot.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Looks to me like propellant charges from rockets...

Ammo dump cooking off.

 

[Mike1976]

Interesting

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This would be a huge thing, if its true...

If we've been paying attention over the last week the inevitably of the past 40 years of Iran getting a nuclear weapon to threaten the whole world, which was the master plan of the Ayatollahs to convert the world to one world religion of Islam, has been obliterated. The conversations of peace have been with the Iranian military & not the Ayatollahs who as you say are hiding in a bunker. In simple terms, the Iranian military are tired, they've felt this way for the last 20 years but saw no way out. They like me are tired of fighting endless wars with nothing changing or ending. We want to enjoy the simple pleasures, like all normal people, watching our children grow up, enjoying growing old with the woman we love, enjoying grandchildren.....etc. If we've guessed/trusted the Iranian military, with a little help & a lot of luck can fix their Country, most Iranians are good people they just need to be given a chance of peace & prosperity. If we've guessed correctly the Iranian Generals that would have been the next Dictator are no longer breathing. I will pray hard & look forward to watching the little pieces fall into place & will sit by the fire some nights & tell how this happened to my grand children. If you're a religious person there have been a few signs that things have been put in place, hand of God type stuff will be explained or you'll figure it out. Course if all this goes south I'll disavow all of this, we gave it our best shot.
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Haven't heard anything about a military take-over, but what I did hear was that the faction of former president Rouhani of moderate reformists has gained a lot of traction following the complete failure of the warhawks.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

If we've been paying attention over the last week the inevitably of the past 40 years of Iran getting a nuclear weapon to threaten the whole world, which was the master plan of the Ayatollahs to convert the world to one world religion of Islam, has been obliterated. The conversations of peace have been with the Iranian military & not the Ayatollahs who as you say are hiding in a bunker. In simple terms, the Iranian military are tired, they've felt this way for the last 20 years but saw no way out. They like me are tired of fighting endless wars with nothing changing or ending. We want to enjoy the simple pleasures, like all normal people, watching our children grow up, enjoying growing old with the woman we love, enjoying grandchildren.....etc. If we've guessed/trusted the Iranian military, with a little help & a lot of luck can fix their Country, most Iranians are good people they just need to be given a chance of peace & prosperity. If we've guessed correctly the Iranian Generals that would have been the next Dictator are no longer breathing. I will pray hard & look forward to watching the little pieces fall into place & will sit by the fire some nights & tell how this happened to my grand children. If you're a religious person there have been a few signs that things have been put in place, hand of God type stuff will be explained or you'll figure it out. Course if all this goes south I'll disavow all of this, we gave it our best shot.
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I agree.

But I can only say these are suppositions, though reasonable enough.

Thing is, the military, the military leadership that is, of the IRGC gives the public appearance of being supportive of the Ayatollahs and their regime.
It would make sense, since they are, after all, appointed by a ruling class that is like peas in a pod with the Ayatollahs and all the other religious nutjobs. So, obviously, these fanatics would put in charge people who are aligned with their views.

However, how representative of the military are they, actually?
Are they mouth-pieces? Or are they the condensed image of the Iranian army? After all, when we take a look at all of the big-cheeses who got power in the army, one could say they all look the same to the point one could be mistaken for another.
The leadership appears to be like that. But is it the case for the lower echelons?

And that's where I really wonder, because if the divide was that big surely we would see reports of defection or similar cases of disobedience. And apart from a very short list on wikipedia and some "article" from "Kayhan Life" talking about the regime threatening with "ultimate punishment anybody in the army found guilty of desertion" I am not seeing much related to Iran and defection.

So, I wonder.

 

[primer]

The cask described in an IAEA document with a capacity for three PWR fuel assemblies, could carry about 1.35 tonnes of uranium and weigh 75,000 lbs (approximately 34 tons)

They had 400 kilo