How much authority Jokani really has is the question. During the civil war the terrorist groups had a common enemy, when that enemy is taken off the board the warring parties often start fighting amongst themselves. Then there's external pressure from Turkey, Israel etc.
That's something I have been working on for some time.
Is he genuine in his intention and does he have control over HTS; the various clashes being caused by dissenting anecdotal and fringe faction from HTS or groups unrelated with HTS by passing themselves as just to create confusion.
Is he genuine but with little control over HTS. As you said, the common enemy is gone, now the coalition is breaking apart. So is it what is taking place and Jolani is nothing but a "King with no Kingdom"? Though, if the schism was that widely spread, we would see turmoil all over the country and on a much greater scale. But it can also be a slow scission that will gradually pick up speed.
Is his appearance of "reformed jihadist" a trick and is Jolani simply playing pretend and deceiving us? For his own gain or his patrons?
First case would lead to a short period of unrest, long enough for the unruly to be dealt with and then some in order to repair and gain the trust of the various minorities brutalized.
Second case, another civil war would end up occurring. Each country backing their champions and favorite groups.
Third would be like having Iraq under ISIL right at our door step.
And, since "I can't help but insert my narrative into everything", strangely enough I doubt the European leaders would be in a profound state of shock.
Just like Merkel, and her comrades in other countries, said and behaved last time: we will manage.
Somehow Islamic terrorist seem to be the only bad guys it is okay to appease.
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