Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Ivan le Fou]

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[Redav]

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[Chazman]

This map shows the most probable moves of the Russian troops to encircle the Ukrainian army in the East.

View attachment 381555

Exactly what it appears Russia is repositioning units to do. They will have a large concentration of combat power in the Donbas region for this. So far Ukraine has out thought, out maneuvered and out fought the Russians. But this may be a larger battle.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

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Ukrainian command ship "Donbass" in the port of Mariupol. Apparently, the ship has completely burned out inside and is no longer active.

Though she was old and was used as a floating barracks for the staff, she provided communication and control of the few forces of the Ukrainian Navy in the Sea of Azov (an armed tugboat, a pair of armored artillery boats).

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[Telmar]

Side note regarding the "for the children" written on the side of the Tochka-U. It appears to be a slogan widely used by Azov as early as 2016:

...

I don' t see that written. I cannot translate it but "D" according to me does not exist in a cyrillic alphabet. "Bce" in cyrillic is all or everyone.

I read in cyrillic on the Toshka "За детей." "Za Detei" in our alphabet.

I may be wrong as I can only decode a cyrillic alphabet.

I wonder if what is written on the pic you posted would not be in a greek alphabet

 

[Telmar]

Exactly what it appears Russia is repositioning units to do. They will have a large concentration of combat power in the Donbas region for this. So far Ukraine has out thought, out maneuvered and out fought the Russians. But this may be a larger battle.

The gap is still 150 km wide, not that easy. But they really seem to have scraped all they could salvage from their forces to put it there. Including air support.

 

[prdalija]

все лучшее детям - All the best for children

 

[IDF_TANKER]

I don' t see that written. I cannot translate it but "D" according to me does not exist in a cyrillic alphabet. "Bce" in cyrillic is all or everyone.

I read in cyrillic on the Toshka "За детей."

I may be wrong as I can only decode a cyrillic alphabet.

I wonder if what is written on the pic you posted would not be in a greek alphabet

The Tochka one literally reads ״For the children”, the way it’s phrased meaning something like “avenging the children”. The Azov one reads “All the best to/for the children”. Two completely different meanings, though both twisted in all kinds of ways…

 

[Telmar]

все лучшее детям - All the best for children

Thanks

I was a little offsided by the "D" and also did'nt recognize the "я""ya" the way it was written

 

[prdalija]

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[Chazman]

The gap is still 150 km wide, not that easy. But they really seem to have scraped all they could salvage from their forces to put it there. Including air support.

Yes, the Russian military would have to perform better than it has so far. They still posses a lot of firepower. But success in this operation is essentially do or die for Russia. If Russia suffers similar casualties in Donbas as they did in Kiev, they are done for the foreseeable future as a force that can mount any substantial offensive.

If that happens, Ukraine has to decide if they go on and take all of Donbas or move south towards Crimea

 

[prdalija]

Thanks

I was a little offsided by the "D" and also did'nt recognize the "я""ya" the way it was written

that is written letter d in russian

 

[HAL9000]

Yeah, you don't understand how this works. Or what has actually happened.

Actually you are the one sounding like an armchair economist. Became an instant expert in international finance after reading one article?

Russia sent a payment for the bond headed for default, but in Roubles, which is not contractually allowed on this bond. Why not in dollars, which they apparently could have done. No, this bond is headed for default. Unless Russia pulls another patented flipflop and sends dollars.

Because paying off their foreign debt (ie converting rubles into dollars and euros) while not receiving any new loans would cause massive devaluation of their national currency. Thats why it had to be stopped.

The danger isn't to Russia being able to access new borrowing while sanctions are in place. The danger is for after this all ends. Again, banks absolutely do not care about somebody else's problems. They definitely care about not getting their money.
And why would Russia borrow from banks again in the future? For the exact same reasons they did in the past.

Works both ways. Western governments have damaged their own credibility in the long-term by using international finance as a weapon. From now on governments around the World will become more coutious about keeping their foreign reserves in dollar and euro nominated assets.

And the Russian plan for their economy is that China will be a great friend? Yeah, let me know how that works out. Best of luck to you. The history of Russia-Chinese relations indicates there should be no problems there. At least the history books printed in Russia this week.

A friend in need is a friend indeed. Everybody have shown their real faces recently. Yes, Chinese are our friends.

I am not dreaming about the Russian economy collapsing. I have seen that movie before, more than once. I don't actually want to see it again.

Yeah, after your attempt to bring Russians on their knees has failed, lets just pretend it never happened.

Also may want to just write off all assets held outside Russia right now. They are all going to be sent to Ukraine for rebuilding after the courts sort out the responsibility for this insane and murderous invasion.

Some foreign companies will stay and seize the market share of those companies that left.

Western companies have basically already started writing off all of their assets inside Russia. These write offs are already being priced into their stocks, and have also started showing up in their reports. I don't think most of them will be back either.

Again if our foreign reserves are confiscated, say goodbye to the money we owe to your banks. Simple as that.

Might want to start studying the Chinese language. Could get you a good job in 5 years.

I have good job already.

 

[Fluff]

This map shows the most probable moves of the Russian troops to encircle the Ukrainian army in the East.

View attachment 381555

Uh hu:

 

[pigmode]

Many years ago, I read the excellent book by Stephen Ambrose, Citizen Soldiers. In it, Ambrose compared how the US recovered equipment vs the Soviet Union.

The US would essentially recover everything possible. Teams of mechanics would drive down the road and do follow on to abandoned vehicles behind the front lines. If they couldn't get it started in 10 minutes, they'd have it taken to a depot to be repaired and returned to service.

The Soviets on the other hand, would simply abandon anything with even a minor problem. He went on to describe how hundreds of Studebaker 2 1/2 ton trucks the US had given the USSR, were simply abandoned because the engine air filters were clogged with dust and dirt and no one knew enough to replace it.

Apparently you can't take the Serf out of the Peasant, nor the Soviet out of the Russian.

 

[Fluff]

The Tochka one literally reads ״For the children”, the way it’s phrased meaning something like “avenging the children”. The Azov one reads “All the best to/for the children”. Two completely different meanings, though both twisted in all kinds of ways…

We used to write stuff on bombs in Iraq, but mostly sexual suggestions involving saddam and the bomb. Pretty sure we didnt make ideas about kids.

 

[bald head & beard]

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[Chazman]

Works both ways. Western governments have damaged their own credibility in the long-term by using international finance as a weapon. From now on governments around the World will become more coutious about keeping their foreign reserves in dollar and euro nominated assets.

I agree on this. The reason King Dollar has been the global reserve currency for a century, is because it was considered rock solid by all. The Petrodollar is one key to that. Do I think that the Ruble will ever replace it? Dear Lord, no. But when you force people who already want to do you harm, to find alternatives in currency, it harms the strength of the Dollar. A double edged sword which must be wielded carefully.

 

[Fluff]

The danger isn't to Russia being able to access new borrowing while sanctions are in place. The danger is for after this all ends. Again, banks absolutely do not care about somebody else's problems. They definitely care about not getting their money.
And why would Russia borrow from banks again in the future? For the exact same reasons they did in the past.

Works both ways. Western governments have damaged their own credibility in the long-term by using international finance as a weapon. From now on governments around the World will become more coutious about keeping their foreign reserves in dollar and euro nominated assets.

This makes me laugh. Because despite Mark's comments about bankers, they do have kids, and wife's, and dont want to end up in a trench in Poland. So the whole world has decided it doesnt like Russia. If you want to keep doing business with USA and EU/UK, you better follow the rules. And they are. Even for the international companies exiting Russia, these will be tiny % of their global business, they have more money tied up in toilet paper budget for the world.

Dollar, Euro and ££ are safe havens, where the hell else are you going to keep it?

 

[Mark Sman]

Actually you are the one sounding like an armchair economist. Became an instant expert in international finance after reading one article?


Because paying off their foreign debt (ie converting rubles into dollars and euros) while not receiving any new loans would cause massive devaluation of their national currency. Thats why it had to be stopped.


Works both ways. Western governments have damaged their own credibility in the long-term by using international finance as a weapon. From now on governments around the World will become more coutious about keeping their foreign reserves in dollar and euro nominated assets.


A friend in need is a friend indeed. Everybody have shown their real faces recently. Yes, Chinese are our friends.


Yeah, after your attempt to bring Russians on their knees has failed, lets pretend it never happened.


Some foreign companies will stay and seize the market share of those companies that left.


Again if our foreign reserves are confiscated, say goodbye to the money we owe to your banks. Sieple as that.


I have good job already.

Sigh, I tried. You see enemies where there are none, and thus end up creating them.

Best of luck to you. If we are still around in a year I dropped a reminder on my calendar back to this thread to see how this all played out.
I dropped one for 5 years as well, but I am a little older so that one is more ambitious.

I often find it useful to go back and check out what past me said through the eyes of future me. Started doing this on paper years ago.

If you look back at "past me" and decide that you were spot on, you are probably deceiving yourself.