Politics Syrian Civil War

[Chazman]

So, have been trying to follow the goings on on Twitter. Lots of exaggerations and looney tunes on both sides. But here's what I can filter out.

SAA is running out of men, using police and conscripted teenage boys as replacements. They are losing about 60 men per day. Turkey is running out of PGMs, so is being more selective on targets. Erdo is using refugees as a weapon, both to hurt Greece and blackmail the EU for cash. All sides have been both brutal and guilty of war crimes.


What do the main players want?

Turkey wants territorial expansion, considers parts of Syria as Turkish territory and Erdo has fantasies of a neo -Ottoman empire.

Iran wants a land bridge to the Mediterranean so is willing to use it's proxy, Hezbollah, to to defend the the Assad regime.

Assad, wants to survive, hold on the Syrian territory and is not concerned about refugees, since he supports ethnic cleansing in his own country.

Russia wants to keep a warm water port on the Med and will support Assad to keep it.

If it costs Iran and Russia too much to defend Assad, they will eventually try to replace him. Because they are not loyal to Assad, merely what Assad can give them.

 

[Chazman]

Cease fire announced.

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[berkut76]

 

[berkut76]

Cease fire announced.

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See you all in a week, month, tops.

 

[Fluff]

See you all in a week, month, tops.

So a popcorn break then?

 

[Fluff]

So, have been trying to follow the goings on on Twitter. Lots of exaggerations and looney tunes on both sides. But here's what I can filter out.

SAA is running out of men, using police and conscripted teenage boys as replacements. They are losing about 60 men per day. Turkey is running out of PGMs, so is being more selective on targets. Erdo is using refugees as a weapon, both to hurt Greece and blackmail the EU for cash. All sides have been both brutal and guilty of war crimes.


What do the main players want?

Turkey wants territorial expansion, considers parts of Syria as Turkish territory and Erdo has fantasies of a neo -Ottoman empire.

Iran wants a land bridge to the Mediterranean so is willing to use it's proxy, Hezbollah, to to defend the the Assad regime.

Assad, wants to survive, hold on the Syrian territory and is not concerned about refugees, since he supports ethnic cleansing in his own country.

Russia wants to keep a warm water port on the Med and will support Assad to keep it.

If it costs Iran and Russia too much to defend Assad, they will eventually try to replace him. Because they are not loyal to Assad, merely what Assad can give them.

Anyone know who would replace Assad?

has he got some cousins?

 

[berkut76]

Anyone know who would replace Assad?

has he got some cousins?

Does it really matter? I don't know why Russians and Persians are keeping him around. He is a toxic asset.

 

[thanamestolga]

Very interesting post. Regarding HTS, they were formerly al-Nusra, who were inspired by Al-Qaeda. While not officially ISIS, they seem close enough.

Also regarding Hezbollah and Iran, I wonder how long they'll want to stay engaged in the area if the continue to suffer daily losses.

Erdogan seems clear that he now considers Idlib, (at the very least) as part of Turkey. Will Assad cede that to him? Not willingly. Russia and Iran may not care one way or the other.

HTS is on less friendly terms with ISIS than most. They might be Islamists, but even Islamists have different breeds. In any case, people have the wrong perception of the Turkish movements in Syria. TSK is by nature not ideologically attached to the assets it uses on the ground. While Turkmens are considered an extension of Turkish presence, HTS or Arabs in general are not. They are purely assets, and if TSK takes control of some zone those assets are used and then they are gotten rid of because the idea is not to share power with anybody.

I think the current Putin-Erdo situation has made a move towards erasing Iranian relevance in Syria as everybody no matter which side whether it would be Russian, Turkish or American are not comfortable with Iranian influence, of which they have a lot.

The moment you can understand if Turkey wants to make Idlib Turkish is if the Gendarmerie General Command take over some roles from the 2nd Army, as it is a only slightly less armed (has attack helicopters, MRAP's, heavy weapons etc) than the Army, but has the numbers, equipment and capacity to serve as an internal security unit outside of the border. As the saying goes, the Army fights, the Police protect the streets but the Gendarmerie protects the state.

And if you do see the Gendarmerie's increased presence, it is likely that zone will not be given up easily. Politically speaking at least.

 

[Telmar]

I find it difficult to believe Syria will accept that the road from Lattakia to Aleppo will be cut off by islamists. It´s a big part of the territorial integrity of the Northwest, that is heavily populated.

The support Russia will give for the clearing of that road, that passes very close to Idlib is an important question. The simple fact that Turkey is helping out the rebels to cut the Aleppo-Damascus highway in Saraqib shows IMO that the plan is more to secure continued chaos rather than securing borders through a buffer zone.

 

[Chazman]

The fact the we now have a ceasefire means a couple things.

First it means that Idlib is a tougher job than Erdo predicted. He’s burning through his drones and PGMs and proxy troops quickly and has only achieved a stalemate. Taking large casualties with his own troops would be politically expensive. Oh, BTW this all while one of Erdos top advisors stated Turkey could take down Greece in 4 hours if it wanted to. Nice NATO partner.

Russia on the other hand doesn’t want this Turkish headache. Plus they’ve been surprised by Turkey’s EW capability. The SAA is hemorrhaging men and equipment and more than likely Russia will have to pick up the slack.

 

[thanamestolga]

The fact the we now have a ceasefire means a couple things.

First it means that Idlib is a tougher job than Erdo predicted. He’s burning through his drones and PGMs and proxy troops quickly and has only achieved a stalemate. Taking large casualties with his own troops would be politically expensive. Oh, BTW this all while one of Erdos top advisors stated Turkey could take down Greece in 4 hours if it wanted to. Nice NATO partner.

Russia on the other hand doesn’t want this Turkish headache. Plus they’ve been surprised by Turkey’s EW capability. The SAA is hemorrhaging men and equipment and more than likely Russia will have to pick up the slack.

To put it in simple terms, both sides need time. Turkish operations run in intervals to stockpile the relevant ammo for them. So the ammunition itself is not low, but the amount separated for use in a specific operation has to be built up for at least half a year.

You can see this pattern;

December 2015-March 2016 internal urban combat./YPG-PKK
August 2016 to March 2017 - Euphrates Shield/ISIS
January 2018 to March 2018 - Olive Branch/YPG-PKK
October 2019 - Peace Spring/YPG-PKK
February 2020 - Idlib/SAA-Hezbollah

Now lets take everything else into account.

The operations in North Iraq.
Participation in Libya.
Internal operations.

That is a very high operational tempo. I would go as far as saying beyond the imagination of most NATO members. In even more simplistic terms, if every Turkish barrel in Idlib and Hatay fired twice this would probably be a devastating depletion of ammunition for pretty much all NATO countries with the exception of France, UK, US and maybe(?) Canada. And those barrels did fire, multiple times, for weeks. Add to that, the tempo of the UCAV's, the rocket artillery..

Now only a certain amount of munitions are being allocated for these things, the military stockpiles ammunition specifically for this use, the general ammunition pool is not being depleted.

 

[Fluff]

The fact the we now have a ceasefire means a couple things.

First it means that Idlib is a tougher job than Erdo predicted. He’s burning through his drones and PGMs and proxy troops quickly and has only achieved a stalemate. Taking large casualties with his own troops would be politically expensive. Oh, BTW this all while one of Erdos top advisors stated Turkey could take down Greece in 4 hours if it wanted to. Nice NATO partner.

Russia on the other hand doesn’t want this Turkish headache. Plus they’ve been surprised by Turkey’s EW capability. The SAA is hemorrhaging men and equipment and more than likely Russia will have to pick up the slack.

Are you suggesting this War/border skirmish/local disagreement is not going to plan? How unfair....

 

[Musashi]

@thanamestolga
How were the 33 Turkish soldiers killed a couple of days ago? Some people said it was an airstrike, while others said it was a Tochka ballistic missile.
Was a single attack or were they killed by multiple attacks the same day?

 

[thanamestolga]

@thanamestolga
How were the 33 Turkish soldiers killed a couple of days ago? Some people said it was an airstrike, while others said it was a Tochka ballistic missile.
Was a single attack or were they killed by multiple attacks the same day?

Combo. As far as I know Tochka had nothing to do with it. Russian airstrike mixed with Syrian artillery. A fixed position was hit, followed by the convoy that went for reinforcement. And when the convoy stopped to take cover, the buildings they occupied were hit.

 

[morris]

I find it difficult to believe Syria will accept that the road from Lattakia to Aleppo will be cut off by islamists. It´s a big part of the territorial integrity of the Northwest, that is heavily populated.

The result of Putin-Erdogan agreement:
M5 Syrian, M4 open to M5 with buffer zones north and south of it.

Also

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[berkut76]

Guys, what about the Kurds? Any news on that front, literally and figuratively.

 

[Musashi]

Guys, what about the Kurds? Any news on that front, literally and figuratively.

They have been thrown under the bus.
Occasionally, some people saw them having thrown rocks at U.S. and Turkish troops.

 

[Chazman]

They have been thrown under the bus.
Occasionally, some people saw them having thrown rocks at U.S. and Turkish troops.

I'm not sure they feel thrown under the bus. They may be glad to be out of the line of fire. Plus they have US forces securing the oil fields for them.

 

[morris]

Guys, what about the Kurds? Any news on that front, literally and figuratively.

1 Erdogan said that they discussed Kurds at the meeting wit Putin but didn't give details.

2 Some pro-Turkish jihadists claimed downed Kurdish drone

 

[Chazman]

See you all in a week, month, tops.

I'd say, more like a week. The details haven't even been worked out yet. But as thanamestolga said, they need a break. Turkey to rearm and bring in fresh mercenaries and SAA to get re-equipped by Russia.


In other news, Coronavirus has reached Syria. Brought in by infected IRGC/Quds Force.