Politics Syrian Civil War

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it does, but I'm not seeing complex battle plans, Turkeys seems akin to moving the fence while your neighbours are on holiday.....

And not being that successful at it. Therefore asking other neighbors (EU, NATO, US) to join in while threatening them with repercussions (namely letting "refugees" in) if they refuse.


Same here. Seems like a lot of, "lets go THERE, spray and pray and see who wins".

That, somehow, looks like Erdogan is playing some nationalistic power-move to insure he stays in power.

Don't know if this war and these operations in Syria are very popular in Turkey.


edit: ah well, the link posted by Morris is rather telling.
 
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We don’t have a migrant crisis topic, so this place is the most appropriate.


The website with the hotlinked article is very slow, but it opens eventually.
So, the key message is: Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia are ready to help Greece deal with the mess. Poland is ready to send border guards to Greece.
If some idiots don’t understand this S**t has to be stopped, you cannot blame them for losing the elections in the future.
 
What’s the reason for Turkey to keep its manned aircraft on its side of the border?

I‘m not saying they should cross, as their drones seem to be effective, but it seems to have left them uncovered in the early days, compounded by no AA missiles.... seems daft to tie both hands behind your back.

M113, can’t see what the excitement is about, most logical is Turkey, numbers seem high, so it’s not likely to be a few captured from here and there. And so what, looks like everyone is randomly using whatever they have.

one other point, all these militia, look like they are having fun, but what is there expectation at the end? Most likely to end with 9mm, or helfire......

The reason for keeping manned aircraft on the Turkish side is because Russia has been eyeing the opportunity to take a shot since the 2015. Hence all ops in the west of Euphrates had to be constantly coordinated with them. The Su-24/L-39 kills over the last week has been done from the Turkish side. The double kill by F-16 was closer range but the last BVR engagement was done from 45 km away via AMRAAM C7. Drones kept the air support the whole time, this was just not reflected by the Turkish nor Russian/Syrian side until the 28th. The release of the UCAV footage is a direct response to UAV footage of Turkish tanks being hit and Turkish convoy's on the move.

M113/ACV-15's are nothing really. The only "serious" weapons were given to the Turkish controlled militants, probably the most notable of which are 155 towed arty and STINGER's. These were not HTS.

HTS has no future in Idlib. If TSK keeps Idlib, HTS will be arrested and paraded around with their heads down similar to what happened in Afrin.Right now they are a means to an end, or in Turkish military terminology "mine donkey's". And if SAA keeps Idlib, the same will happen. On the other hand anyone who says HTS is ISIS does not know what they are talking about or want to believe they are ISIS.

To the others who are trying to figure out what the Turkish strategy is, or why there is a lack of strategy. Notice the lack of ground forces participation, with exception of artillery. This is not the actual operation. The order was very simple from the morning of the 28th, "all known regime targets will be engaged on the spot". That is exactly what happened. It's one large retaliation that lasted several days, now the operational tempo has slowed down again. This doesn't necessarily mean it will not continue, or that it will either. 5 UCAV's have been documented as lost in Idlib, on the other hand 6 were delivered over the weekend. Despite the losses, the Turkish UCAV inventory has grown.

Assad should wake up and go to sleep praying to Hezbollah everyday. Where SAA gave up and ran, Hezbollah did not. There is a certain respect for their behavior.
 
We don’t have a migrant crisis topic, so this place is the most appropriate.


The website with the hotlinked article is very slow, but it opens eventually.
So, the key message is: Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia are ready to help Greece deal with the mess. Poland is ready to send border guards to Greece.
If some idiots don’t understand this S**t has to be stopped, you cannot blame them for losing the elections in the future.
Another article about the same thing in Polish.
So, Poland is ready to send 100 very experienced border guards and 100 policemen to Greece. The declaration was made during the last EU summit.
Furthermore, a very strong statement was issued that the Polish government is not even going to talk about taking any refugees or relocating them to Poland from other EU countries.
 
Furthermore, a very strong statement was issued that the Polish government is not even going to talk about taking any refugees or relocating them to Poland from other EU countries.

According to sultan's grand plan they not going to Poland
refPlan.webp

unless somebody mess with GPS signal.
 
Twitter reports that a Russian SU-24 crashed today and several Russian mercenaries killed in Saraqib.
 
Lazkiye / Turkish-Syrian border; A Russian SU-24 jet crashed in to the Mediterranean Sea.


Sorry, this post has been removed by the moderators of r/Turkey.
Post has been removed for misleading content. This was from May 3, 2018.
 
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The reason for keeping manned aircraft on the Turkish side is because Russia has been eyeing the opportunity to take a shot since the 2015. Hence all ops in the west of Euphrates had to be constantly coordinated with them. The Su-24/L-39 kills over the last week has been done from the Turkish side. The double kill by F-16 was closer range but the last BVR engagement was done from 45 km away via AMRAAM C7. Drones kept the air support the whole time, this was just not reflected by the Turkish nor Russian/Syrian side until the 28th. The release of the UCAV footage is a direct response to UAV footage of Turkish tanks being hit and Turkish convoy's on the move.

M113/ACV-15's are nothing really. The only "serious" weapons were given to the Turkish controlled militants, probably the most notable of which are 155 towed arty and STINGER's. These were not HTS.

HTS has no future in Idlib. If TSK keeps Idlib, HTS will be arrested and paraded around with their heads down similar to what happened in Afrin.Right now they are a means to an end, or in Turkish military terminology "mine donkey's". And if SAA keeps Idlib, the same will happen. On the other hand anyone who says HTS is ISIS does not know what they are talking about or want to believe they are ISIS.

To the others who are trying to figure out what the Turkish strategy is, or why there is a lack of strategy. Notice the lack of ground forces participation, with exception of artillery. This is not the actual operation. The order was very simple from the morning of the 28th, "all known regime targets will be engaged on the spot". That is exactly what happened. It's one large retaliation that lasted several days, now the operational tempo has slowed down again. This doesn't necessarily mean it will not continue, or that it will either. 5 UCAV's have been documented as lost in Idlib, on the other hand 6 were delivered over the weekend. Despite the losses, the Turkish UCAV inventory has grown.

Assad should wake up and go to sleep praying to Hezbollah everyday. Where SAA gave up and ran, Hezbollah did not. There is a certain respect for their behavior.


Very interesting post. Regarding HTS, they were formerly al-Nusra, who were inspired by Al-Qaeda. While not officially ISIS, they seem close enough.

Also regarding Hezbollah and Iran, I wonder how long they'll want to stay engaged in the area if the continue to suffer daily losses.

Erdogan seems clear that he now considers Idlib, (at the very least) as part of Turkey. Will Assad cede that to him? Not willingly. Russia and Iran may not care one way or the other.
 
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WTF!!!!

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According to sultan's grand plan they not going to Poland
View attachment 210840
unless somebody mess with GPS signal.
Neither did it in 2015, so it’s not the point.
The Polish government, whom I’ve always criticised so much, despite all its disadvantages, is right SOMETIMES.
The rationale is very simple.
i. Keeping the integrity of the EU.
ii. The fewer migrants you take, the fewer you’d deal with.
iii. No reason to deport them from the EU or relocate them to other EU, as they wouldn’t be here. Needless to say, Poland was criticised for not taking migrants in 2015. In other words, prevention is better than dealing with something.
iv. Hungary has always been a strategic Poland’s partner and its next to be hit if Greece is “flooded”.
v. If Germany and Austria are “flooded”, AfD and FPÖ will rise again. Russia will get some extra influence over the EU, as both of them are financed and supported by the electable tsar. They would get more representatives and break up the integrity of the EU. I remember some German members having been surprised when the “Germany-hating” Polish government issued a statement that they supported German CDU in the previous German elections. The reason was exactly the same: there are not any better alternatives. If somebody thinks Poland is interested in breaking up the EU, they are basically idiots (no the EU = no billions of euros for Poland ;) ).

A long story short: a very deep strategic thinking that has not much to do with Poland.


For the same reason, the Polish government decided to get heavily involved in helping Sweden dealing with forest fires before. They used it as an opportunity to be taken as helpful, while they criticised the Swedish government for its comments regarding the PiS rule in Poland. That’s how PiS works. They help you and troll you at the same time if they think helping you makes it easier and they would get 2-3 more extra points in polls.

Unfortunately, the more democratic parties in Poland don’t know how to play the game, so they lost another election last year. The hidden point is the presidential elections in Poland this year. PiS wants to smash through the shyte and it looks like they will do it comfortably ;)
 
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According to Süleyman Soylu, Turkey's Minister of the Interior, over 1000 fully equipped police-special-forces personnel have been deployed along the Evros river to prevent Greece to stop migrants from entering the country.

Meanwhile Charles Michel told Erdogan Europe will totally stand behind Turkey in its actions.
 
This just my thoughts, if will be different outcome if first strike done by turkey when regime started attack Idlib before it reach Turkey observation post... if turkey early on striking Assad force when they start try to retake Idlib in name of breaching Sochi agreement.. i think Russia involvement quite will be different and maybe minimize involvement assisting Assad force when they see turkey determination to uphold the agreement.. but things now has happened.. it takes time that turkey finally making action after Assad forces gaining momentum and Russian already have fully involvement in the operation, right now meeting between Edrogan and Putin take place discussing the solution for Idlib... if turkey want assad forces to withdraw behind the deescalation line surely Assad refuse after all this time they gaining momentum and Putin surely back up Assad as Russia dignity will be at risk... so we will see what is the outcome of the discussion..
 
Russian troops in Saraqib.


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BTW, Aleppo is also heating up.

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