After 4.5 Years of a Stalemated War, Ukraine Braces for a Full-On Russian Invasion
Shattered Status Quo
Russia invaded Ukraine four and a half years ago, and the two erstwhile Soviet allies have been at war—albeit a limited, geographically quarantined one—ever since.
More than 10,300 Ukrainians have so far died in the conflict and on average one Ukrainian soldier still dies in combat every three days. The conflict is Europe’s only ongoing land war.
Since a shaky cease-fire, known as Minsk II, quelled the fighting in February 2015, the physical effects of the war have remained more or less geographically quarantined along a 250-mile-long static and entrenched front line in Ukraine’s embattled southeastern Donbas region. For the most part, the war has been fought from trenches and without the concurrent use of air or maritime forces.
Sunday’s seaborne confrontation, however, shattered the status quo military stalemate between Russia and Ukraine.
For one, it adds a maritime front to the ongoing trench war. It also marks the first time in four and a half years of constant combat that Russia has openly admitted to firing on Ukrainians.
“In fact, what happened on Nov. 25 is an extraordinary event,” Poroshenko said Tuesday.
“For the first time in four and a half years of Russian aggression, officially, without tearing off chevrons, without ‘little green men,’ Russian troops in large numbers attacked the ships of the armed forces of Ukraine,” Poroshenko said.
Clear Threat
Since 2014, Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula has become a Russian military redoubt.
From October 2014 (eight months after Russia’s seizure of Crimea) to October 2018, the number of Russian troops in Crimea tripled, Poroshenko said on Tuesday, adding that Russia has also increased its stockpiles of armored personnel carriers, artillery systems, multiple-launch rocket systems, and has deployed more warplanes and ships to the peninsula.
“The buildup is still underway now,” Poroshenko said
“Crimea today continues to play the most important role in maintaining the country’s military security,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in June, the Russian news site TASS reported.
“In the peninsula there has been created a unique combined force and it is being strengthened steadily. Its advanced high-tech weapon systems will leave no chance for a potential enemy that may dare attack this indigenous Russian land,” Shoigu reportedly said.
Beyond Crimea, Russia has positioned about 77,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders capable of launching a rapid, conventional land invasion, Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said in April. At that time, Poltorak said Russia had 19 battalion tactical groups near Ukraine’s borders.
On Tuesday, however, a Ukrainian defense spokesman said the number of Russian battalion tactical groups “capable of carrying out combat missions” in Ukrainian territory had risen to 25.
“Since 2013, the Russian Federation has been modernizing its entire airfield network along the Ukrainian border, upgrading the fleet of combat aircraft, and expanding the capabilities of army aviation,” said Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, during a Tuesday press conference in Kyiv.
“About 500 combat aircraft of tactical aviation and up to 340 helicopters of army aviation have currently been deployed along the border with Ukraine,” Skibitsky said.
Moreover, inside the two breakaway territories in the Donbas, there are currently about 3,000 Russian soldiers embedded within a larger force of about 34,000 pro-Russian separatists, and foreign mercenaries.
Ukraine, for its part, has about 60,000 troops deployed to the eastern war zone with tens of thousands more deployed to its southern coastal regions, ready to rapidly defend its coastlines on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.