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Trying to keep the day-to-day politics to a minimum—not least because generalisations like "Europeans hate freedom" are about as true and useful as "all Americans are uneducated hillbillies"—there were nonetheless some comments made by @LimaCharles and @Chazman which I feel warrant discussing against the backdrop of this thread's premise.

Yeah, Americans and Europeans differ culturally. But they always have. I'm not entirely sure why that observation has made it into this thread, as if Europe and America were a formerly loving couple that's drifted apart just now.

I put it to you the current state of affairs between the continents, which you seem to see as a recent development, is hardly different now from what it was at the time of other geopolitical caesuras. There've always been differences. In 2003, Americans poured French wine down the gutter because most Europeans thought the Iraq War was a bad idea. Or think of Vietnam, a conflict which in many countries ruined America's positive image for good. Think also of 1956, when America humiliatingly thwarted an attempt by Britain and France to seize the Suez Canal.

What I do find peculiar is the notion that America's role in the Old World's security architecture was somehow guided by altruism or naivety. You do yourselves an injustice if you presume you've elected 13 consecutive presidents too stupid to realise what was and wasn't beneficial to America's own interests.

Let's not forget that before the Second World War, America had been oscillating between neutrality, isolationism, and even rivalry with Europe (particularly with the United Kingdom). NATO was not the product of a change of heart. America constructed it in order to ensure two things:

Stopping the expansion of Communism, as most American leaders at the time (most notably Dean Acheson) were convinced a successful red takeover in Western Europe would inevitably trigger a Communist revolution in the States; and to guarantee that any war which America would have to fight against the Soviet Union would not be fought on American soil.

In that sense, NATO has been highly beneficial to America. Some would say that it still is: Without bases in Europe as stepping stones, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could not have been fought.

You speak of differences, but it seems to me you've only brushed the surface.

It is very true Europeans often don't understand America (sometimes wilfully). But the same is true vice versa. America has yet to understand that the paradigm shift in European defence policies after 1990 stemmed from a fundamental difference in perception, not malice (as Trump seems to think). The Europeans didn't seek to be given a piggy-back ride; they thought there was no ride.

Unlike America, Europeans never perceived Iran, China, or North Korea as military threats. From a European perspective, little was stopping America to likewise reduce its military-spending. (A gross misconception, but that's not what I'm addressing here.)

Or to put it more abstractly: For a perceived lack of enemies, the Europeans saw NATO as purely reactive. America saw NATO as proactive. It's the fault of both sides that this conflict has never been resolved. Blaming both sides equally is a hill I'm willing to die on. I mean, is there really a fundamental difference in the disregard for each other's interests if you compare how European leaders perceive China and how Trump perceives Russia?

Further up, @LC wrote this:
For those still serious about standing up for yourselves, a good way to AAR yourselves is to study up on why it took you all so long to intervene in your own backdoor with Yugoslavia and why it took US logistics and might to help get you there.
This comment is particularly interesting to me because it's so emblematic of that misunderstanding. On the one hand, your reasoning presumes to be purely utilitaristic and on the other, you make a moral argument.

I mean: Why did 'we' even have to intervene? What was Yugoslavia to 'us'? And why would 'we' even have to consider Yugoslavia as a backyard of 'ours'? I'm putting the personal pronouns in inverted commas here to alert your attention to a misconception which I think is at the heart of America's contribution to the state of our mutual affairs.

Who is that: 'you'? Granted, there's a European Union as an umbrella to a majority of the European countries by virtue of their shared economic interests. But it has virtually no say on defence policies, and its existence does not mean the geopolitical interests of even a majority of the European countries are actually aligned.

Why would e.g. Norway or Portugal care about Yugoslavia?

If you want to understand Europe, imagine an alternative history version of the United States where each state differs from one another in language, culture, political system, even religion. That's the reality you're dealing with if you speak of "Europe" by matter of convention or convenience.

NATO intervened in Bosnia after Clinton's "we were shot at by snipers on the runway" publicity stunt. We were slow to react because most of us didn't want to react. That's because most European countries, except maybe France with its former colonies, had long since lost their taste for the interventionism which had been a cornerstone of US foreign affairs right up to Trump.

Yugoslavia was a US-driven show of force more than anything else, aiming to justify NATO's continued existence after the fall of the Soviet Union. I suggest to you there are few lessons to be learned from that war.

The way I see it, you're overestimating the impact of progressive ideologies when it comes to this thread's title: the future of European defence strategy. Change is underway. European defence spending has increased by 31% from 2015 to 2025 (compared to America's 19% over that same period). In most European countries, progressive parties do not oppose this trend. Quite the contrary, in some they're key actors when it comes to leading the push for rearmament.

I'd also propose that generalised comments on a people's alleged mentality do not really shed light on anything here, particularly in combination with political opinions. For example, the "socialist" Scandinavians all poll as highly or higher than Americans when surveyed as to whether they'd fight for their country.

Moreover, one can easily find surveys suggesting that Ozzie bloke you quoted overestimates the average American's willingness to stand and fight in the event of a major war. Think tank Echelon Insights (which seems to be Republican-aligned if their client list means anything) did a survey in late 2023 showing that
[…] 72 percent of those asked would not be willing to volunteer to serve in the armed forces were America to enter a major conflict, compared with 21 percent who would. The remainder were unsure." (Source)
But the article also quotes a former Navy captain as saying:
"I'm very skeptical of that being accurate because I think the 'why' you're in a war can dramatically change the answer to that question," he said. "I was in the military before 9/11; a lot of society didn't really think about the military very much [before then]."
And there lies the rub.

In my humble opinion, all those reflections on mentality are relatively meaningless because they hinge on a perceived external threat and the exact nature of a hypothetical war. Just a little anecdote to lighten the mood: Afghanistan consistently scored above 70% in the periodical Gallup surveys on a nation's willingness to fight. We all know how that ended, they ran without a fight.

From my experience in the reserves of a European army and my continued interest in the matter, I'd say our biggest problem isn't ideological in nature. It's much more mundane: institutional ossification. You can't turn an oil tanker on a dime.
 
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Trying to keep the day-to-day politics to a minimum—not least because generalisations like "Europeans hate freedom" are about as true and useful as "all Americans are uneducated hillbillies"—there were nonetheless some comments made by @LimaCharles and @Chazman which I feel warrant discussing against the backdrop of this thread's premise.

Yeah, Americans and Europeans differ culturally. But they always have. I'm not entirely sure why that observation has made it into this thread, as if Europe and America were a formerly loving couple that's drifted apart just now.

I put it to you the current state of affairs between the continents, which you seem to see as a recent development, is hardly different now from what it was at the time of other geopolitical caesuras. There've always been differences. In 2003, Americans poured French wine down the gutter because most Europeans thought the Iraq War was a bad idea. Or think of Vietnam, a conflict which in many countries ruined America's positive image for good. Think also of 1956, when America humiliatingly thwarted an attempt by Britain and France to seize the Suez Canal.

What I do find peculiar is the notion that America's role in the Old World's security architecture was somehow guided by altruism or naivety. You do yourselves an injustice if you presume you've elected 13 consecutive presidents too stupid to realise what was and wasn't beneficial to America's own interests.

Let's not forget that before the Second World War, America had been oscillating between neutrality, isolationism, and even rivalry with Europe (particularly with the United Kingdom). NATO was not the product of a change of heart. America constructed it in order to ensure two things:

Stopping the expansion of Communism, as most American leaders at the time (most notably Dean Acheson) were convinced a successful red takeover in Western Europe would inevitably trigger a Communist revolution in the States; and to guarantee any war which America would have to fight against the Soviet Union would not be fought on American soil.

In that sense, NATO has been highly beneficial to America Some would say that it still is: Without bases in Europe as stepping stones, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could not have been fought.

You speak of differences, but it seems to me you've only brushed the surface.

It is very true that Europeans often don't understand America (sometimes wilfully). But the same is true vice versa. America has yet to understand the paradigm shift in European defence policies after 1990 stemmed from a fundamental difference in perception. The Europeans didn't seek to be given a piggy-back ride; they thought there was no ride.

Unlike America, Europeans never perceived Iran, China, or North Korea as military threats. From a European perspective, little was stopping America to likewise reduce its military-spending. (A gross misconception, but that's not what I'm addressing here.)

Or to put it more abstractly: For a perceived lack of enemies, the Europeans saw NATO as purely reactive. America saw NATO as proactive. It's the fault of both sides that this conflict has never been resolved. Blaming both sides equally is a hill I'm willing to die on. I mean, is there really a fundamental difference in the disregard for each other's interests if you compare how European leaders perceive China and how Trump perceives Russia?

Further up, @LC wrote this:

This comment is particularly interesting to me because it's so emblematic of that misunderstanding. On the one hand, your reasoning presumes to be purely utilitaristic and on the other, you make a moral argument.

I mean: Why did 'we' even have to intervene? What was Yugoslavia to 'us'? And why would 'we' even have to consider Yugoslavia as a backyard of 'ours'? I'm putting the personal pronouns in inverted commas here to alert your attention to a misconception which I think is at the heart of America's contribution to the state of our mutual affairs.

Who is that: 'you'? Granted, there's a European Union as an umbrella to a majority of the European countries by virtue of their shared economic interests. But it has virtually no say on defence policies, and its existence does not mean the geopolitical interests of even a majority of the European countries are actually aligned.

Why would e.g. Norway or Portugal care about Yugoslavia?

If you want to understand Europe, imagine an alternative history version of the United States where each state to differ from one another in language, culture, political system, even religion. That's the reality you're dealing with if you speak of "Europe" by matter of convention or convenience.

NATO intervened in Bosnia after Clinton's "we were shot at by snipers on the runway" publicity stunt. We were slow to react because most of us didn't want to react. That's because most European countries, except maybe France with its former colonies, had long since lost their taste for the interventionism which had been a cornerstone of US foreign affairs right up to Trump.

Yugoslavia was a US-driven show of force more than anything else, aiming to justify NATO's continued existence after the fall of the Soviet Union. I suggest to you there are few lessons to be learned from that war.

The way I see it, you're overestimating the impact of progressive ideologies when it comes to this thread's title: the future of European defence strategy. Change is underway. European defence spending has increased by 31% from 2015 to 2025 (compared to America's 19% over that same period). In most European countries, progressive parties do not oppose this trend. Quite the contrary, in some they're key actors when it comes to leading the push for rearmament.

I'd also propose that generalised comments on a people's alleged mentality do not really shed light on anything here, particularly in combination with political opinions. For example, the "socialist" Scandinavians all poll as highly or higher than Americans when surveyed as to whether they'd fight for their country.

Moreover, one can easily find surveys suggesting that Ozzie bloke you quoted overestimates the average American's willingness to stand and fight in the event of a major war. Think tank Echelon Insights (which seems to be Republican-aligned if their client list means anything) did a survey in late 2023 showing that

But the article also quotes a former Navy captain as saying:

And there lies the rub.

In my humble opinion, all those reflections on mentality are relatively meaningless because they hinge on a perceived external threat and the exact nature of a hypothetical war. Just a little anecdote to lighten the mood: Afghanistan consistently scored above 70% in the periodical Gallup surveys on a nation's willingness to fight. We all know how that ended, they ran without a fight.

From my experience in the reserves of a European army and my continued interest in the matter, I'd say our biggest problem isn't ideological in nature. It's much more mundane: institutional ossification. You can't turn an oil tanker on a dime.


Muck, I find your posts well thought out, (and sometimes long! :))

Countries do things which align with their interests. For 80 years, the US has agreed to keep the global sea lanes open, defend Europe and Asia, open the US market internationally, tariff free, even if not reciprocated, and fight wars in the Middle East to keep oil flowing, just to make sure the USSR/Russia wouldn't expand. It was in American interests.

But there is a new reality today, Russia isn't even strong enough to take Ukraine, let alone Central or Western Europe. The US is 37 trillion dollars in debt, with a trillion being added every 90 days. The countries which were in shambles in 1945 are now rich. We are in the midst of a paradigm shift, where it's not exactly a retreat to Fortress North America, but more that every global flare up isn't 100% an American problem. It will be a time of reordering.

Some random points before I go back to work.

Eisenhower was furious with the UK and France in 1956 because there was no prior coordination with the US at the EXACT moment Ike was pressuring the Soviet Union to not invade Hungary during that uprising. The Soviets said, screw you, look what you guys are doing in Suez.

Regarding freedom, we all want it, but perhaps have our own definitions of what it is.

A case in point may be Canada and the US. Essentially the same people. The Americans threw off the yoke of the British Empire, created it's own Constitution which spelled out unalienable God given rights. The Canadians continued to be loyal to the King, had many Tories move from the US to Ontario, and have had their rights and freedoms slowly erode, especially in the past 10-20 years, and are about to elect another Marxist today. Interesting - kind of a West vs East Germany comparison.
 
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I don't argue with folks who use fallacies. This isn't the first time you have tried this with me either.

All I know is that excuses have a valid range of zero meters, zero yards, and zero radiuses.

At least some of you have admitted openly without reservation that there is no one else at fault for Europe's lack of an effort but for themselves. And self awareness is key to moving on.
 
Welcome to the club ;)
His premise seemed to be, and I'll happily stand corrected in the case that I misquote, that Europeans have lost the "way" and have no fighting spirit any more, and that that's why we reduced our militaries and have become overly reliant on America.

I don't understand what's supposed to be fallacious about my reply. It's a highly ironic claim given that his premise was solely based on a comment by some random Australian about what he thought was wrong with Europe.

With all due respect, I'd say it's a colossal fallacy to presume complex political developments in 30-odd countries could be explained by pointing at a single, simple, straight-forward point of origin.

On a more topical note, wanna know what's bothering me in the context of this thread's subject?

Europeans have started to ask some of the right questions, but one big elephant in the room remains unaddressed: outsourcing.

The all-ecompassing inclusion of private contractors into the military's logistical processes.

The Yanks can afford to do that, being thousands of miles away. But we have to start asking ourselves what happens if a major conflict breaks out and techs from Thales, Rheinmetall or God-knows-who-else are needed on the frontline to fix something, just because military hardware has become so complicated armies can't fix their stuff entirely on their own any more.

It seems to me that solutions like the Ukraine service hubs in Poland and Slovakia are not the way forward.
 
I don't argue with folks who use fallacies. This isn't the first time you have tried this with me either.

All I know is that excuses have a valid range of zero meters, zero yards, and zero radiuses.

At least some of you have admitted openly without reservation that there is no one else at fault for Europe's lack of an effort but for themselves. And self awareness is key to moving on.

Then you should probably move on from this thread from now on, in which you’ve clearly contributed to nothing of interest beside redundantly accusing Europeans, including muck, Mike1976 who’ve shown knowledge and thoughtful points of « fallacies », I even wonder if you know what that term stands for.

At any rate, leave this thread if it irritates you so much, counterpoints and arguments are fine… being annoying and obtuse isn’t.
 
The all-ecompassing inclusion of private contractors into the military's logistical processes.

The Yanks can afford to do that, being thousands of miles away. But we have to start asking ourselves what happens if a major conflict breaks out and techs from Thales, Rheinmetall or God-knows-who-else are needed on the frontline to fix something, just because military hardware has become so complicated armies can't fix their stuff entirely on their own any more.

It seems to me that solutions like the Ukraine service hubs in Poland and Slovakia are not the way forward.
I assume it would be the same as during WW2 and the Cold War; everything of interest can be nationalised or otherwise taken control of by the government.
 
Then you should probably move on from this thread from now on, in which you’ve clearly contributed to nothing of interest beside redundantly accusing Europeans, including muck, Mike1976 who’ve shown knowledge and thoughtful points of « fallacies », I even wonder if you know what that term stands for.

At any rate, leave this thread if it irritates you so much, counterpoints and arguments are fine… being annoying and obtuse isn’t.
Well I don't know if you've been paying attention, but I already had until dragged back into it by a person upset with facts.

Can't be annoying and obtuse when telling the truth, but one can be annoyingly obtuse with a blatant USA derangement. Take that for what you will, quoting me here only brings me back to this thread again.
 
My 2 cents about Portugal:
To put it plain and simple, portuguese politicians from left to right do not give a rats ass about military expenses because that does not buy votes (instead it leads to people not voting if any party anounces military purchases-20 years after the purchase of the 2 submarines, that is still cause for jokes and outrage from the extreme left!)
Add to that that even the military do not give a damn about equipment. As long as they have their Mercs and BMWs with chauffer to take the wifes shopping during the weekend, good meals and 20 year old whisky, all is well.
Plus "the war is far away" as already declared by government oficiais.
In case of war we can always invoke Article 5 (that's their mindset)
Also patriotism is compared to being a fascist and Salazar's regime nostalgic.
The soldier's salary is miserable ( you earn more if you work partime at McDonald's)
Most of the equipment is obsolete and/or does not work because there is no money for maintenance (there are stories of armed cars being "tunned" with card panels for parades ...that if they can move at all)
And finally almost 75% of the defense budget goes to pay for salaries (current officers and many high ranking retired officials still from the African wars)
So if you hear Portugal will increase its defense budget, expect almost nothing to change.
Maybe some "financial engineering" to show some nice graphs at NATO meetings but that will be all.
 
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@Redav 75% of spending going for salary, and miserable salary is intersting combination. Does it go for the chauffer?
 
My 2 cents about Portugal:
To put it plain and simple, portuguese politicians from left to right do not give a rats ass about military expenses because that does not buy votes (instead it leads to people not voting if any party anounces military purchases-20 years after the purchase of the 2 submarines, that is still cause for jokes and outrage from the extreme left!)
Add to that that even the military do not give a damn about equipment. As long as they have their Mercs and BMWs with chauffer to take the wifes shopping during the weekend, good meals and 20 year old whisky, all is well.
Plus "the war is far away" as already declared by government oficiais.
In case of war we can always invoke Article 5 (that's their mindset)
Also patriotism is compared to being a fascist and Salazar's regime nostalgic.
The soldier's salary is miserable ( you earn more if you work partime at McDonald's)
Most of the equipment is obsolete and/or does not work because there is no money for maintenance (there are stories of armed cars being "tunned" with card panels for parades ...that if they can move at all)
And finally almost 75% of the defense budget goes to pay for salaries (current officers and many high ranking retired officials still from the African wars)
So if you hear Portugal will increase its defense budget, expect almost nothing to change.
Maybe some "financial engineering" to show some nice graphs at NATO meetings but that will be all.
Portugal is so far away they can't even spell Russia.

All countries in Eastern Europe spend like crazy on their military.
 
My 2 cents about Portugal:
To put it plain and simple, portuguese politicians from left to right do not give a rats ass about military expenses because that does not buy votes (instead it leads to people not voting if any party anounces military purchases-20 years after the purchase of the 2 submarines, that is still cause for jokes and outrage from the extreme left!)
Add to that that even the military do not give a damn about equipment. As long as they have their Mercs and BMWs with chauffer to take the wifes shopping during the weekend, good meals and 20 year old whisky, all is well.
Plus "the war is far away" as already declared by government oficiais.
In case of war we can always invoke Article 5 (that's their mindset)
Also patriotism is compared to being a fascist and Salazar's regime nostalgic.
The soldier's salary is miserable ( you earn more if you work partime at McDonald's)
Most of the equipment is obsolete and/or does not work because there is no money for maintenance (there are stories of armed cars being "tunned" with card panels for parades ...that if they can move at all)
And finally almost 75% of the defense budget goes to pay for salaries (current officers and many high ranking retired officials still from the African wars)
So if you hear Portugal will increase its defense budget, expect almost nothing to change.
Maybe some "financial engineering" to show some nice graphs at NATO meetings but that will be all.

Isn't there a cultural factor as well?

Wondering if the Carnation Revolution could have left traces with regards to the army.

edit: ah nvm, somehow I skipped the part where you mentioned Salazar.
 
Isn't there a cultural factor as well?

Wondering if the Carnation Revolution could have left traces with regards to the army.

edit: ah nvm, somehow I skipped the part where you mentioned Salazar.
You are totally correct, the leftist mindset of the general population is totally against the Armed Forces which they see as a total waste of money
 
Well I don't know if you've been paying attention, but I already had until dragged back into it by a person upset with facts.
You're very welcome to ignore other members or chose not to partake, but if you do post something publicly, you implicitly agree with it being discussed in public. And frankly:
Can't be annoying and obtuse when telling the truth
You're not nearly omnipotent nor omniscient enough to simply declare your opinion the truth and demand that others accept it as such. Again, this is a public forum. If you do not care to substantiate your claims, that's fine, but you mustn't expect others to just nod in agreement. What some random Ozzie bloke wrote on social media does not constitute a substantiation.
but one can be annoyingly obtuse with a blatant USA derangement.
You've been playing that record for a while now. If you perceived my comment on there being a disagreement about NATO's purpose and the nature of its enemies as some form of accusation, it's because you just decided to be offended for some strange reason. I couldn't imagine why, it's a pointless claim to make. Two decades ago, Donald Rumsfeld coined the term "Old Europe" to describe that very disagreement. Did I dream that?

I was simply stating what can be legitimately claimed to be obvious by sheer logic and the power of historical example:

NATO's European half consists of 30 different countries with vastly divergent policies, interests, and mentalities. Some of them, such as Hungary, are politically isolated. Others, like Turkey and Greece, are virtually enemies. There is no political leitmotif across the board; there is hardly even a lowest common denominator. Some European nations are more pacifist, others have been militarising. In other words, it's simply wrong to suggest the defence policies of European countries are all aligned with one another and can call be traced back to a single motive, whatever you think that motive may be.

The slump in European military spending over the 1990-2015 period has many origins:

The perceived absence of external threats to justify the upkeep of large armies.

Disagreement on the purpose of NATO, particularly whether it should play "world police" or not.

Fragmentation. Only 9 out of NATO's 32 member states are great powers or middle powers with a geopolitical footprint. What interest might a country like Slovakia have in maintaining an ability to project military power?

The naive belief of governments in Fukuyuma's "end of history".

Pacifist leanings in the electorate.

The lack of a domestic defence industry sector needing subsidies.

The naive belief of military leaders that sandal-clad dudes with Kalashnikovs were the enemy of the future, and consequently a misguided eagerness to transform armies into light expeditionary forces bespoke for COIN. This was a particularly catastrophic development, shrinking not only armies but also their skillset.

The financial crisis of 2008 reducing the investment budget of many governments for years to come.

Heck, we haven't even addressed the biggest elephant in the room yet: fiscal austerity. Particularly the armies of Germany and Britain are what they are now because they'd fallen in love with Hayek and tried to cut public spending and public debt at the same time.
I assume it would be the same as during WW2 and the Cold War; everything of interest can be nationalised or otherwise taken control of by the government.
Probably, but what about their employees? They'd have to be conscripted, otherwise you couldn't order them to stay and work.
 
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