Politics German Politics & News

[Musashi]

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[muck]

Snap elections next?

Already set, there's no realistic way around it. January 15 he'll lose the confidence of the Diet, after which a new Diet has to be elected within 60 days. Unless the Federal President refuses to pronounce the Diet dissolved, which he could technically do, but what would be an unprecedented breach of non-written constitutional practice.

It takes at least four-to-six weeks to prepare a generation, so we're looking at a date in March here. Probably the second half of March, as the first week of that month is Fasching (carnival) and everyone's too drunk to vote.

The next Chancellor will be CDU's Friedrich Merz, who has a conservative and straight-forward agenda.
But he won't be able to govern alone, and much of what he can do will depend on his coalition partner.

 

[muck]

Woah. Lindner just tore into Scholz big time on national television: "The Chancellor had demanded that I break my oath of office to uphold the law and protect the German people from harm, and he fired me because I wouldn't oblige."

Man, that election campaign is going to hit American levels of nastiness.

 

[muck]

Man, this getting better and better.

Scholz about Lindner: "In order to avert harm from Germany, I had to ask the President to dismiss him. Mr. Lindner has violated my trust time and time again. He is narrow-minded and only cares about the good of his own party. He is unwilling to compromise. I could not tolerate him bothering Germany with this reckless behaviour any further."

Lindner now claims that Scholz, meaning to create a debt-funded stimulus package, demanded that he violate the constitutional debt ceiling clause which may only be ignored in times of emergency. Lindner says that he told Scholz that he can't do this and that there are other means to improve the economy, like lowering taxes and welfare payouts, which Scholz refused to consider.

This is quite unprecedented.

 

[muck]

The meltdown continues: One Liberal minister (Volker Wissing, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure) has rebelled against his party leaving the coalition and accepted an invitation from Scholz to remain in office. Wissing claims he is acting out of a sense of duty, but there's no duty to be fulfilled anymore, as all his undersecretaries-of-state have resigned in protest, calling him a coward and leaving him unable to lead his ministry.

I'm sure Wissing's sense of duty isn't motivated at all by the fact that he won't get his 220k p.a. pension unless he's served out a full four-year term … Why would I even suspect him of so base a motive?

CDU's Merz has just said there won't be any deals with Scholz and he demands a vote of confidence immediately.

It'll be sooner than March.

 

[muck]

Oh boy, this getting better by the hour.

Trying to get him to stand down, Merz just returned from a meeting with Scholz fuming. Merz says that Scholz told him he can't stand down now because no-one is as well-read in current affairs as him, and that we can't have elections in 2024 to ensure that everyone in the federation* has a nice, relaxed Christmas and New Year's Eve.

*) He used the word Bund in German, think of it as "everyone in Whitehall" or "everyone on the Hill".

It's raw, festering, unadulterated autism.

On another note, have you noticed how in times of crisis (actual or perceived) voters tend to gravitate to tall men? Compare Harris to Trump, or in this case: Scholz is 1.7 metres, Merz stands 2 metres tall, as does his co-chief (the Bavarian prime minister).

 

[Musashi]

But he won't be able to govern alone, and much of what he can do will depend on his coalition partner.

So, who would be his coalition partner?

Since the last elections, the FDP has lost over 66% of its voters, and it may not enter the future German parliament. That usually happens when you enter a coalition with parties that have nothing in common with you. They fulfil their promises at your expense, and you cannot fulfil yours because they don't agree with you.

FDP is against borrowing more money, while Germany is supposed to start spending more money on its military.
Ol' Drumpf won't be messing around this time. He may strike a deal with Putin or withdraw U.S. troops from Europe, making it defenceless against RuZZia.

I don't think spending more money on the military will be popular in the next German parliament. The CDU may support it, but all the possible coalition partners will oppose it.

 

[muck]

The Greens would support increased military spending (though not conscription). As a matter of fact, they were the driving force between that €100 billion cash injection, and they also have been the most steadfast supporters of military aid to Ukraine.

It's the Reds who wouldn't play ball. On Ukraine and military spending, even Scholz is an outsider in his own party.

/edit
Current polls suggest 66% of the electorate want immediate general elections.

 

[muck]

The meltdown continues. Scholz has just said that he's willing to talk about snap elections at an earlier date.