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https://brilliantmaps.com/what-if-nazi-germany-won-world-war-ii/
The article and discussion is worth reading and I agree with the author's assessment that "it was only Hitler’s dual blunders of first invading the Soviet Union and then declaring war on the United States that led to his downfall." To that I would add another huge mistake was Hitler's abandonment of Rommel in North Africa, preferring instead to stock up for Barbarossa. They wouldn't have even needed to conquer the Middle East to get the oil. The Arabs were at least on cordial terms with the NAZIs at that time. The only thing Hitler was good at was rallying the troops. If he had listened to his military experts, the war would have been totally different.
My commentary:
As a student of IR, I can tell you that speculation can only go so far. Technology is rarely the deciding factor. Far more important is relative will. Clausewitz. Sun-Tzu. Hồ Chí Minh.
Those who have studied WW2 will recall that toward the end of the war, Patton was fully aware that the Soviet Union was not going to withdraw from the Eastern European countries it liberated from the NAZIs. So he was openly calling for the Allies to keep going and push the Red Army all the way back to their own borders.
But by that time, the Allies were exhausted by the war. The last year of it was especially nasty -- even though the Wehrmacht had no chance of winning.
But what would have actually prolonged the war would have been some changes in the Axis' overall strategy. The Kriegsmarine wanted to put the war off another 5 years so it could have more time to build up sufficient forces to challenge the Royal Navy on the surface. Submarines are defensive weapons by nature and cannot control the seas.
Attacking the Soviet Union was a huge strategic error. If they would have stuck to the Pact and got their oil from friendly sources in the Middle East, likely Uncle Joe would have joined the Axis against the Allies. The Germans would have had time to develop nuclear weapons -- and would have had no problem using them.
The Japanese would have had better luck taking a more gradual approach to pressuring the United States, rather than a surprise attack. The American people otherwise had no appetite for joining the war. No doubt, the United States would have stayed out of it longer -- until we were completely alone with Europe, Africa, Asia [and quite possibly Latin America] under Axis domination.
Arguably, with those changes, the Axis would have won the war -- and the world would be completely different, dominated by different versions of brutal totalitarian dictatorship.
But it's all speculation. What's done is done -- and we are still feeling the effects of the most devastating war in human history.
The article and discussion is worth reading and I agree with the author's assessment that "it was only Hitler’s dual blunders of first invading the Soviet Union and then declaring war on the United States that led to his downfall." To that I would add another huge mistake was Hitler's abandonment of Rommel in North Africa, preferring instead to stock up for Barbarossa. They wouldn't have even needed to conquer the Middle East to get the oil. The Arabs were at least on cordial terms with the NAZIs at that time. The only thing Hitler was good at was rallying the troops. If he had listened to his military experts, the war would have been totally different.
[I'm not going to go into whether there would have been a Second World War if not for Hitler, because that would necessarily open another long-winded discussion about how the US entry into the Great War was a contributing factor in the terms of Versailles Treaty, because otherwise the war may have ended in stalemate. etc. etc.]
My commentary:
As a student of IR, I can tell you that speculation can only go so far. Technology is rarely the deciding factor. Far more important is relative will. Clausewitz. Sun-Tzu. Hồ Chí Minh.
Those who have studied WW2 will recall that toward the end of the war, Patton was fully aware that the Soviet Union was not going to withdraw from the Eastern European countries it liberated from the NAZIs. So he was openly calling for the Allies to keep going and push the Red Army all the way back to their own borders.
But by that time, the Allies were exhausted by the war. The last year of it was especially nasty -- even though the Wehrmacht had no chance of winning.
But what would have actually prolonged the war would have been some changes in the Axis' overall strategy. The Kriegsmarine wanted to put the war off another 5 years so it could have more time to build up sufficient forces to challenge the Royal Navy on the surface. Submarines are defensive weapons by nature and cannot control the seas.
Attacking the Soviet Union was a huge strategic error. If they would have stuck to the Pact and got their oil from friendly sources in the Middle East, likely Uncle Joe would have joined the Axis against the Allies. The Germans would have had time to develop nuclear weapons -- and would have had no problem using them.
The Japanese would have had better luck taking a more gradual approach to pressuring the United States, rather than a surprise attack. The American people otherwise had no appetite for joining the war. No doubt, the United States would have stayed out of it longer -- until we were completely alone with Europe, Africa, Asia [and quite possibly Latin America] under Axis domination.
Arguably, with those changes, the Axis would have won the war -- and the world would be completely different, dominated by different versions of brutal totalitarian dictatorship.
But it's all speculation. What's done is done -- and we are still feeling the effects of the most devastating war in human history.
