Politics The 2022 French Presidential Election/French politics thread

Edmund Exley

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It’s a year from now.

Here is a Politico article that introduce the main challengers to current President Macron.

For a while, I was thinking Macron would be re-elected, because it would be a recap of 2017 and Macron/Le Pen with another landslide victory for Macron, but the fact that Xavier Bertrand for the right-wing party “Les Républicains” recently announced his candidacy and is trying to gather his peers or opponents in his own party around him.

Then there are a few talk these days about the far left (La France Insoumise, Jean Luc Melanchon), the Greens and the Socialist could form a coalition against Macron. Like: “anyone but the current President”

Anyways, read this article and we have plenty of time to discuss it, as a lot can happen in a year whether terrorism turbulence, the pandemic, or your typical French protests/riots about something.

 
It will likely be as usual.

It would be surprising if Macron manages to reach the 2nd turn, though he nevertheless managed to get elected in the first place. But that was mostly thanks to Marine Lepen.

Point is: if someone like Macron (who was a political nobody apart from his short appearance in the Hollande administration) manages to get elected, then anybody could.

Contrary to the US, French politicians can't really rely on their personal and professional achievements. In the end they are merely careerists padding their resume.
 
I let this one die a bit since April, not like we are in a hurry but just as a general FYI, every Saturday in France about 200-250k people stage protests in many different French cities and towns against the Covid Pass, some are fierce antivaxxers, others mostly are against the drastic and as we say here « Liberticide » measures being implemented by Macron and his govt.

In short, even if it may have been discussed in the COVID-19 thread; having your QR code proving that you got your both jabs are mandatory to go to a bar, restaurant and even on terrace, cinemas, museums etc. Anywhere where there is an event that gather many anyway.

As a consolation, other countries have decided to take such measure and restrictions at least for those that don’t want to get vaccinated.

Mandatory vaccination? Nope.
Want to live more or less « normally ». Get your jabs done.
 
The right-wing party Les Républicains is having an issue, some want to go through a number of debates between them and some want to go to the first round of the presidency alone, like Xavier Bertrand. They certainly would have some chance of defeating the current president if they were at least sort of united and standing behind one candidate which is not the case.
 
Still trying to keep this thread lively because first round of the election is about six months away now.

Not bothering everyone with charts about polls right now but basically:

Macron stands first with about 25%
Éric Zemmour would be second at 16-17%
Marine le Pen would be second or third depending of the polls, with roughly 16%
The Républicains party if Xavier Bertrand is their candidate would be a mediocre fourth at 15%.

It’s a very close call and things, rallies will happen in six months so we’ll see.

Unfortunately it seems to be looking still good for a re-election of Macron even against Xavier Bertrand in the second round.
 
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Vaguely following the French presidential race. Well not really, in fact I am merely catching glimpses of stuff being shouted in the media.

But... apparently Zemmour is being characterized as "the French Trump" (in France) and "the French Tucker Carlson" (elsewhere; in english speaking countries, some of them at least... personnaly I would rather say Zemmour is closer to Hannity than Tucker)? Also lefties and antifa block a highway in Nantes to prevent a Zemmour-related event to take place?

Aside from the basic and borderline grotesque tactics used to attack Zemmour (iow: using overused and stereotypical parallels) it is interesting to see that though the polls are placing him at the same level as LePen, the media are focusing on him. And not LePen.

I remember during the previous presidential, the media, though not really endorsing anybody, at least all agreed on some common ground: LePen=worst thing ever.
Zemmour seems to have become that "worst thing ever".

Not even sure what his stances are, wasn't he part of Ruquier's crew at some point? Roasting guests and stuff?


Can't say the prospects are especially promising. Macron is probably good for another run.
 
Vaguely following the French presidential race. Well not really, in fact I am merely catching glimpses of stuff being shouted in the media.

But... apparently Zemmour is being characterized as "the French Trump" (in France) and "the French Tucker Carlson" (elsewhere; in english speaking countries, some of them at least... personnaly I would rather say Zemmour is closer to Hannity than Tucker)? Also lefties and antifa block a highway in Nantes to prevent a Zemmour-related event to take place?

Aside from the basic and borderline grotesque tactics used to attack Zemmour (iow: using overused and stereotypical parallels) it is interesting to see that though the polls are placing him at the same level as LePen, the media are focusing on him. And not LePen.

I remember during the previous presidential, the media, though not really endorsing anybody, at least all agreed on some common ground: LePen=worst thing ever.
Zemmour seems to have become that "worst thing ever".

Not even sure what his stances are, wasn't he part of Ruquier's crew at some point? Roasting guests and stuff?


Can't say the prospects are especially promising. Macron is probably good for another run.

I'm going to gamble on a macron / Barnier run off off for the presidential race while every other candidate is smeared my MSM . It will give the average french voter the illusion of choice when in reality both men share the same ideals / policies . As with pretty much every western democracy your allowed choice just as long as it aligns with what the elites desire .
 
Have to agree with most everything Ivan wrote especially the conclusion. Prospects aren’t too good.

Eric Zemmour unlike some other candidates like Le pen, Macron or Xavier Bertrand (he’s still not declared himself a candidate but considering his tremendous efforts so far that’d be quite dumb to renounce now.) is not widely known outside of France.

He’s a journalist and writer, and used to work and be put in the wider population light being a columnist for a late night French show criticizing positively or negatively various singers, actors or fellow writers.

Let’s be serious, he’s fairly intelligent and literate and know what he’s doing.

He’s now labeled “far right” as Ivan stated, but has a mixed background himself both Jewish and Christian.

I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says, but there’s some truth in it particularly about migrants, crime and terrorism.

The worthless socialist candidate Arnaud Montebourg basically summed up his political ambitions as “Let’s throw all Arabs in the sea” which is stupid, typically leftist bullshit to accuse someone of being a racist. He never stated this although he has his own strong stance about Political Islam.

All around this will be a bumpy ride until next April, I’m surprised even that people aren’t protesting all that much re: the Covid Pass and other things.
 
Zemmour used to be a very interesting guy, like Mathieu Bock-Cote (canadian conservative editorialist) but he slipped into a caricature. And he´s a socialist economy wise.

Noone is talking about the economy: about making the environment fruitful for entrepreneurs, inventors, ressearch and development. Only the extremes are talking loud...(and about the same thing). The others are just out of whack...the classical right wing parties have candidates who require more state intervention, the left dumbell Hidalgo talks like a retard in front a of a ticket dispenser at a train station regretting there are no more ticket sellers...

France´s tragedy is that we need a Margaret Thatcher: she just put the UK back ship shape on the economic level and did´nt seem to lose too much time on the other stuff.
 
We’re in an odd situation, where about 65% of the country disapprove of the President yet he’s likely getting re-elected next year anyway.

He managed to destroy the more traditional parties i.e, the Socialists which have spawned Presidents like Mitterand and Hollande (sigh) and the Républicains, with figures like Chirac and Sarkozy (double sigh). Forty years of about the same, with some subtle differences.

Macron (almost) came out of nowhere in late 2016 even though he was in Hollande’s government but the general public barely heard of him. Considering Hollande’s unpopularity he didn’t even seek a second tenure and Macron started his own party. The rest of you know the rest of the story. Not that bad a start, France wins the World Cup in Russia, he’s inviting Trump to Bastilles day parade and have dinner up the Tour Eiffel.

So far so good, then the “carbon tax” and the yellow jackets movement which left him and his administration a big scar which he tried to heal for many months to this day.

Macron like the rest of us do watch and follow the news and the oddity of his high chance of being re-elected make me sure he’s going to run again.

Marine Le Pen is certainly suffering the Zemmour momentum, in recent polls anyway, because many of her voters and base think she polished and tamed her party a bit too much, and it’s not working.

A pretty divided country, but leaning more right wing by the day. All things considered, Zemmour, Le Pen and Bertrand would gather almost half of the votes, the rest is bread crumbs for the greens and socialists, at least a good thing. Macron is pretty opportunistic so he’ll find the right words (no pun intended) to appease and try to gain some right wingers votes too.
 
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Thank you Ivan, Jack and Telmar for your insights into this. Down here we'd barely even know that there is an election upcoming. (But we sure do get a LOT of information about the Prime Ministers upcoming wedding ..... sigh)
 
Cheers.

I may have to go fetch @Mordoror and @Redav for some other insights, @BRIAG8 too.

Our French contingent can be quite dysfunctional in different topics, but I’m thinking that most of us would come to some sort of consensus about the situation six months prior to the election.
 
Cheers.

I may have to go fetch @Mordoror and @Redav for some other insights, @BRIAG8 too.

Our French contingent can be quite dysfunctional in different topics, but I’m thinking that most of us would come to some sort of consensus about the situation six months prior to the election.
Yeah right :p
 
For betting persons ;)

Just for the record to see dynamics as time goes by.
french pres elect odds.png
 

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