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NATO Supreme Allied Commander: Russia Won't Overwhelm Alliance in War
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Dave Majumdar
March 15, 2018

The United States and NATO are outgunned in Eastern Europe, but only in terms of concentrated ground forces in the view of America’s top military officer in Europe. However, Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, commander of United States European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said that he does not agree with a recent RAND Corporation study that suggests that the alliance could be overwhelmed by a Russian attack.

“I don't agree with that,” Scaparrotti told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 8. “When you look at NATO writ large, it has the strength of 29 nations. The effort that's being made in NATO and the one that's being made here in the United States is to increase our capability to deter and, if necessary, defend.”

In Scaparrotti’s view, Russia hopes to avoid open warfare with NATO.

“I think part of their strategy is, first of all, that, as you look at their doctrine, they intend to use activities below the level of conflict to undermine their opponent,” Scaparrotti said. “And, if that would go well, they would undermine their opponent without firing a shot. And I would like to make the statement that I think that, while they have advantages, even conventionally, due to interior lines, proximity and size of force, which was noted by the chairman, in the longer run, NATO has great advantages that they actually recognize and fear.”

Indeed, Russian exercises such as Zapad only confirm Scaparrotti’s view.

“For the most part, what Zapad did is reinforce what we believed was their direction in terms of their doctrine, their training, their modernization,” Scaparrotti said. “They focused on command and control for strategic to tactical, and we saw throughout the exercise. They focused on both conventional and nuclear, which we expected. They focused on both offensive, defensive operations, and they incorporated what I would call a whole-of-society approach. They mobilized their people, et cetera, in some aspects of this. And so, for us, it was a reinforcement of the doctrine that we've seen developing over the last, I'd say, ten years. From that, I mean, we learn from watching. And it helps us posture our force and train our force and also, you know, the development of our plans, obviously.”

However, the United States has to continue to modernize its forces—or American forces will be increasingly challenged by the Russian military by 2025.

“I would say that, given their modernization and the pace that it's on and what we are aware of they're doing, we have to maintain our modernization that we've set out so that we can remain dominant in the areas that we are dominant today. If we were not to do that, I think their pace would put us, certainly, challenged in almost every domain in a military perspective by, say, 2025.”
 
News items relating to NATO in General (just created)
 
Crisis-Hit Norwegian Army Up in Arms Over Lack of Tanks, Helicopters, Staff
Last year alone, 660 service personnel disappeared from the Norwegian Army, Navy and Air Force, which previously had a combined force of 16,000. Severe understaffing, along with poor defense preparedness, are among five problems the Nordic nation's armed forces must address, according to recent reports.

The Norwegian Armed Forces' preparedness to deal with crises and conflicts as well as its ability to deter advancing enemy powers is well below the expected level and will remain so at least until the mid-2020s, when new defense equipment becomes fully operational, according to an annual report published by the Norwegian defense.

While Defense Chief Haakon Bruun-Hanssen praised his fellow Norwegian soldiers and officers for doing a solid job and earning international recognition for their missions abroad, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, he also stressed drastic domestic problems, in which he was supported by Defense Minister Frank Bakke-Jensen, the daily newspaper Aftenposten reported.

According to the newspaper, the Norwegian Armed Forces currently have five main problems to deal with. ...more https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2018/04/mil-180405-sputnik04.htm?_m=3n.002a.2258.ph0ao0037n.22uv

France 'to launch European military crisis force in June'
France says it will "launch" a deployable European military crisis force in June, with French defense officials confirming that the army would work outside of existing European Union efforts.

French Defense Ministry sources revealed on Wednesday that the French government had been in touch with a dozen countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Denmark, over the military crisis force and had organized a working group to outline the idea in March, Reuters reported.

It was not clear what countries had joined the initiative – the sources did not reveal the names of the countries – but enough countries had apparently agreed to be involved to make a launch possible. ...more https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/...presstv01.htm?_m=3n.002a.2258.ph0ao0037n.22v0
 
Russian Volga Dnepr Airlines (VDA) sent a message to the SALIS ( https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_50107.htm ) members to inform them that VDA will not flight anymore for NATO after December 21th 2018. This decision follow the application by the USA of the 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ( https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3364/text?r=13 ).

The Ukrainian society Antonov DB is the only one still able to provide SALIS with heavy airlift but only for a maximum of 900 hours of flight ( of the 2300 needed by the NATO).
 
NATO Furious Hammer Drills Kick Off in Baltic Region – Estonian Defense Forces
TALLINN (Sputnik) - Convoys of military servicemen from Estonia, as well as the United Kingdom and Denmark, both of which are members of NATO international battalion, will start Wednesday to move toward Latvia in order to take part in the Furious Hammer drills, the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces said.

Nearly 1,300 Estonian servicemen will take part in the drills. The military exercises include three phases, the first of which will run from Wednesday to Friday as forces move from Estonia to Latvia, the General Staff said.

The active phase is set to take place on Saturday when the troops will begin to practice interacting with one another before engaging in training fights.

UK heavy military equipment, such as Challenger tanks, Warrior infantry fighting vehicles and other combat vehicles will also be involved in the drills.

NATO has been boosting its military presence in Europe, particularly in Eastern European states, since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, citing Russia's alleged interference in that conflict as a justification for the move. Moscow has repeatedly denied allegations of its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, while Russian authorities repeatedly said that NATO actions at the Russian border had destabilizing character.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2018/04/mil-180418-sputnik03.htm?_m=3n.002a.2269.ph0ao0037n.2380
 
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Russia, Ukraine Top NATO Agenda
NATO foreign ministers meet Friday in Brussels, where tensions with Russia are set to top the agenda.

The summit comes weeks after Western countries accused Moscow of poisoning a former spy in Britain. Tensions were further increased following Russia ally Syria's alleged chemical weapons attack, and the retaliatory airstrikes by the United States, France and Britain. While that military action was not organized through NATO, the bloc offered its approval at the time.

Friday's summit will be the last big meeting in NATO's old Brussels building before its international staff and 29 embassies move to a new $1.5 billion headquarters in June. The same challenges remain, however. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that the primary focus would be what he called Moscow's "dangerous behavior."

"This includes the illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, the destabilization of eastern Ukraine, meddling in democratic processes, cyberattacks and disinformation," Stoltenberg told reporters. ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/mili...426-voa01.htm?_m=3n.002a.2276.ph0ao0037n.23ft
 
Europe Needs Self-Sufficiency in Defense - Belgian Prime Minister
BRUSSELS (Sputnik) - Europe should do its utmost to ensure self-sufficiency in defense and security, however, it should stay within the framework of NATO, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said Thursday.

"Ensuring security is our common responsibility. We should achieve an autonomous and reliable potential to respond to all potential threats as soon as possible, we should also continue our efforts aimed at protection of our external borders," Michel said in the European Parliament.

The politician added that Belgium was planning to continue being a "reliable partner" within NATO.

"We want European defense within the framework of NATO and [the European] program of structured cooperation in the sphere of defense and the European Defence Fund are good tools for moving forward to this issue. Our operative capabilities should ensure the protection of our values and geopolitical interests," the head of the Belgian ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/mili...sputnik04.htm?_m=3n.002a.2282.ph0ao0037n.23ne
 
Multi-lateral anti-submarine warfare drill starts in Norway
A multi-lateral anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercise in the Norwegian Sea got underway May 9 as navy assets from five ally countries gathered in Bodo, Norway, for the pre-sail conference.

The exercise is hosted by Norway and led by the US Navy.

ASW forces from Canada, France, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States are taking part with the aim of honing interoperability and tactical proficiencies.

US units participating in the exercise include one fast attack submarine, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Farragut (DDG 99) and one P-8A Poseidon aircraft attached to Maritime Patrol Squadron (VP) 10.

“This exercise is a key opportunity for US and allied partners to practice ASW skills in a tactically challenging environment,” said Capt. Roger E. Meyer, commander, Task Force 69, the US 6th Fleet unit responsible for submarine operations in the European and African theaters.

The US Navy did not reveal the name of the exercise and it is unclear whether it is a continuation of a maneuver which took place in May last year. While smaller in scope, the May 2017 exercise in the Norwegian Sea saw the participation of German Type 212 submarines and US and Norwegian ASW assets. The drill was named Eastlant 2017.
international-anti-submarine-warfare-drill-starts-in-norway-320x213.jpg

https://navaltoday.com/2018/05/10/m...rine-warfare-drill-starts-in-norway/?uid=5430
 
Europe must take its fate in own hands, can no longer rely on US for protection: Merkel
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Europe can no longer rely on the United States for protection, urging European Union member states to take the bloc's destiny in their own hands
"It is no longer such that the United States simply protects us, but Europe must take its destiny in its own hands, that's the task of the future," the German leader said at an award ceremony in Aachen, a German resort city near the border with Belgium, where French President Emmanuel Macron received the prestigious Charlemagne Prize for his efforts in boosting EU integration and cohesion.

Merkel's comments came two days after US President Donald Trump declared that his country was pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saying Washington would not only reinstate the anti-Iran sanctions lifted as part of the deal, but would also "be instituting the highest level of economic" bans against the Islamic Republic.

The JCPOA came out of years of negotiations between Iran on one side and the P5+1 group of countries -- the US, UK, France, Russia and China plus Germany -- on the other, in July 2015. ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/...presstv01.htm?_m=3n.002a.2288.ph0ao0037n.23uu
 
NATO drill Open Spirit kicks off in Estonia

Mine countermeasure ships and personnel from 15 navies gathered in Tallinn, Estonia, for the start of the international Baltic Sea ordnance disposal drill Open Spirit.

The exercise kicks off Friday and is joined by ships from NATO’s Standing Mine Countermeasures Group 1 (SNMCMG1) among others.

Open Spirit will take place Estonian waters ranging from Tallinn to the Sõrve peninsula and is scheduled to conclude on May 25.

SNMCMG1 ships arrived in Tallinn after concluding their participation in the Royal Navy-led exercise Joint Warrior and wrapping up a visit to Aberdeen, Scotland.

Open Spirit is organized by the navies of the Baltic States and takes place once a year on a rotating basis in Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. The exercise aims to reduce the threat of unexploded ordnance throughout the Baltic Sea region, including seabed communications lines, international shipping routes, and fishing areas.

Open Spirit 2017 was hosted by Latvia.
nato-drill-open-spirit-kicks-off-in-estonia-320x165.jpg

https://navaltoday.com/2018/05/11/nato-drill-open-spirit-kicks-off-in-estonia/?uid=5430
 
Norway to host 70 vessels, 40,000 personnel for Trident Juncture 2018
The upcoming flagship NATO exercise Trident Juncture 2018 is expected to be one of the largest ever with 40,000 personnel, around 120 aircraft and as many as 70 ships converging this fall in Norway.

Compared to the 2015 edition of the exercise which was said to be “the largest NATO exercise in a decade”, Trident Juncture 2018 is expected to host an additional 4,000 personnel and an added 10 ships.

All 29 NATO members and partner nations Sweden and Finland, among others, are taking part.

German Air Force Lt. Col. Stephan Dirr serves as the officer at JFC Naples with primary responsibility of Trident Juncture 18. With experience at the national level and previously serving as the primary exercise planner for the European Union, Dirr is no stranger to coordinating and organizing exercises.

“After the Cold War, we forgot a little bit to do this kind of exercise, and as you realize, Trident Juncture 18 is one of the most complex exercises NATO has done really in the last 30 years,” said Dirr.

The major portions of the exercise will take place in Norway and the surrounding areas of the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea.

The Trident Juncture 18 live exercise officially begins October 25 and ends November 7, in and around Norway. Troops and equipment will begin arriving weeks prior, and returning home weeks afterward.

The exercise is comprised of two parts: a live exercise and a command post exercise conducted mostly in the southern Italy-based headquarters of JFC Naples. The command post portion of the exercise will take place November 14 through 23.

Trident Juncture 18 is designed to test NATO’s ability to plan and conduct a major collective defense operation, which runs the gamut from training troops on the ground to commanding large forces. Planners say it’s the largest in a series of deliberately-planned exercises scheduled over several years to ensure that NATO forces are trained, able to operate together and ready to respond to a threat from any direction.

“We have this big ground play,” said Dirr, citing another piece of the Trident Juncture 18 puzzle. “Six brigades fighting each other in the center of Norway…which is on one hand a minute-to-minute scripted thing, on the other hand, you have to be flexible to react if something is going wrong.”

Norwegian Chief of Defence Admiral Haakon Bruun-Hanssen said not only will the exercise test the country’s ability to receive and handle additional troops and equipment, but it will be an opportunity for its military to test Norway’s Total Defence Concept, which involves military forces and a wide range of civilian departments and authorities.

“If we do well and show that we got what it takes, it will strengthen the credibility of Norwegian defence and NATO cooperation,” said Bruun-Hanssen in February. “We hope that this exercise will demonstrate the solidarity and strength within NATO, and thus prevent that we will ever need this help in real life.”
norway-to-host-70-vessels-40000-personnel-for-trident-juncture-2018-320x167.jpg

https://navaltoday.com/2018/05/28/n...personnel-for-trident-juncture-2018/?uid=5430
 
US confirms Polish request for $2bn military base to deter Russia
The US State Department has confirmed reports about Poland's offer of up to $2 billion for a permanent US military base within its borders, which Warsaw says will act as a deterrent against Russia.

The confirmation came on Monday after the proposal by Poland's defense ministry was made public.

"This proposal outlines the clear and present need for a permanent US armored division deployed in Poland, Poland's commitment to provide significant support that may reach $1.5-2 billion by establishing joint military installations and provide for more flexible movement of US forces," read the document, obtained by Polish news site Onet.

"Permanent US troops in Poland will send a clear message to Russia of US support for its Eastern European allies," the Polish Defense Ministry said in the proposal.

The document even offers locations for a number of military bases, hospitals – including their capacities – and possible schools or even gyms for the families of personnel.

Warsaw confirmed later in the day that the document was genuine and had recently been delivered to the administration of US President Donald Trump and the US Congress. ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/mili...presstv04.htm?_m=3n.002a.2304.ph0ao0037n.24do
 
NATO Reportedly Invests in 'Key' Military Radar on Denmark's Easternmost Island

With a radius of 470 kilometers, the radar has been described as one of NATO's most important tools for monitoring Russian activities. On the island of Bornholm, reactions have been cheerful, because the radar helps generate work opportunities.

In the coming years, NATO will invest an as of yet undisclosed sum into the Danish Air Force's radar facility in Almindingen on Denmark's easternmost island of Bornholm. The radar currently monitors air traffic for a large part of the Baltic Sea and beyond, including the Baltic countries, Danish Radio reported.

The radar has a radius of 470 kilometers and is one of Denmark's three radars for aircraft surveillance, the other two are in Skagen (Demark's northernmost town in Northern Jutland) and Skrydstrup (Southern Jutland) respectively.

One of the contributing factors elevating the Bornholm radar is the strategic placement of the island south of Sweden, northeast of Germany and north of Poland. The installation has been described as vital because it warns NATO of the "Russian threat." ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/mili...sputnik04.htm?_m=3n.002a.2309.ph0ao0037n.24jd
 
New NATO Initiatives Aim to Boost Alliance Readiness
WASHINGTON -- NATO is stronger than ever and new initiatives will increase the alliance's readiness capacity, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today in Brussels.

"High readiness is essential in a more unpredictable world, Stoltenberg said.

Stoltenberg previewed the Defense Ministerial that will begin at NATO headquarters in Brussels tomorrow. Defense Secretary James N. Mattis is attending the gathering for the United States. The alliance defense ministers will be discussing the items that will be discussed by NATO heads of state at the NATO Summit in Brussels in July.

New NATO Joint Commands, Readiness Initiative

The secretary general expects the defense ministers to approve establishing two new NATO joint force commands: one in Norfolk, Virginia, for access across the Atlantic; and one in Ulm, Germany, for logistics inside Europe. This will increase the alliance's command structure by about 1,200 personnel, he said. ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2018/06/mil-180606-afps01.htm?_m=3n.002a.2310.ph0ao0037n.24ku


Major European powers as well as the European Union have written a letter to the United States, urging Washington not to go ahead with its planned "secondary sanctions" against European firms doing business in Iran.

Foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union's top diplomat Federica Mogherini addressed the message to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday, reported The Wall Street Journal, which has reviewed the letter dated June 4.

The secondary bans, which US President Donald Trump administration plans to enforce, would affect foreign companies conducting business with third countries.

Washington has already re-introduced its nuclear-related sanctions against Tehran. It did so last month after unilaterally pulling out of a 2015 multilateral nuclear accord with Tehran, despite warnings and criticisms from the other signatories – France, the UK, Germany, China and Russia – and the European Union.
EU wants firms exempt from US sanctions on Iran ...MORE

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2018/iran-180606-presstv03.htm?_m=3n.002a.2310.ph0ao0037n.24kk
 
A Royal Navy warship was dangerously buzzed by 17 Russian fighter jets in an act of "brazen hostility" off the coast of Crimea.

HMS Duncan was leading a NATO fleet through the Black Sea when the incident occurred.
The jets flew so close that their electronics could have been scrambled by the British ship's radar system, which may have caused them to crash.

Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson said: "As NATO flagship, she [HMS Duncan] has faced down brazen Russian hostility in the Black Sea with jets buzzing overhead, been stalked by Russian spy ships and played a vital role protecting NATO allies during the British, American and French strikes against Syrian chemical weapons facilities.

Read more link also contains video
https://news.sky.com/story/royal-na...russian-jets-off-the-coast-of-crimea-11564248
 

"Other European members of the F-35 consortium might be enlisted to convince Turkey to agree. For example:


Delivery of the F-35s might be delayed until all Russian S-400 technicians leave Turkey.

- They might be given a year to give the Turks some basic training.
- The deal might be NATO-ized by having multinational NATO crews to operate the S-400.
- The Turkish S-400 could be prohibited from operating whenever their F-35s fly within the S-400 radar range.
- The S-400s could remain disconnected from both the NATO air defense network and the F-35’s computers. This would make the S-400 a much less effective air defense system; but that would be part of the price Erdogan would need to pay.
- The U.S. could seek to further improve the conditions of a Patriot sale to Turkey, giving the Turks a better U.S. option.
- The Turks might agree to allow NATO to exploit the S-400 to better understand its capabilities and liabilities.
If Turkey could agree to conditions like these, it still might be possible to avoid a termination of the F-35 sale and avoid a major rift within NATO."


The last option, maybe after Erdogan is history?
 
Tension between an Spanish F-18 and Russian airplanes over Baltic sea:

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A blast from the past with unwavering relevance: Declassified reports on Polish strategy papers show the Warsaw Pact's internal opinion of NATO. The basic points:
  • NATO is far too diverse to act in unison
  • Only the United States and West Germany take their obligations seriously
  • NATO's long and interceptable supply lines across the Atlantic, as well as its lack of territory in Europe rendering spacial manoeuvering difficult, will be its undoing
  • Denmark and Norway will be hopelessly lost in the event of war
  • Italy, Greece and Turkey are weak and unreliable NATO partners
  • The French Army, albeit dramatically inferior to France's naval and air forces, is expected to join the fray quickly (despite France's earlier withdrawal from most NATO institutions)
  • The British Army of the Rhine is a "joke" (sic)
  • NATO will not be able to mobilize quickly enough; the only member with an effective mobilization system is West Germany, whom WP planners expect to raise 160 combat divisions in the nick of time
  • NATO's conventional strengths lie in its strategic and tactical air assets, it's technically advanced navies, it's anti-tank and tactical air defence systems, its doctrine of air force-ground force collaboration
  • Regardless, WP planners expect to overcome NATO's strengths and reach the coasts of France in 14 days
Whilst there's a true core to many of these points, the last one is particularly interesting given the Soviet's own opinion of the WP. According to the sources cited by Gordon L. Rottman, they believed they had only two true allies in the Pact - Bulgaria and East Germany, with only the latter possessing a military whose quality matched the Soviet's own. Poland had a large and capable army, but was seen as unreliable due to the Poles' "ill-concealed hatred" of the Soviets, whereas the Czechoslovak Army was strong on paper but was expected to fight only in the nation's defence.

Both sides knew these things of one another, of course. Which raises an interesting question, I think: If both the US and the USSR considered their sides ill-prepared for World War III, with only the two Germany's truly ready for war on each side, what course of action would they have taken in the event of war? Would both sides' seemingly questionable ability to successfully wage a conventional war have made a nuclear strike even more likely – or would NATO's perceived inability to quickly respond to a conventional attack have rendered a land-based Soviet strike more possible?
 
Swedish military sent impostor to NATO liaison office, admits it has been duped for years ()

I've seen only Swedish language original sources so far, but here's the gist of it:

The unidentified man managed to enter the Swedish military's service with a forged officers' academy graduation certificate. He was deployed overseas and got at long last posted as a Swedish liaison to Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. Now a major, he was even temporarily promoted to lieutenant colonel for reasons of protocol.

Only ten years into the man's "career" did the Swedes get suspicious. Yet still they actually deployed the man – who now had risen to a "leadership" rank in Sweden's coast guard – to Mali in 2019. Sweden's abashed minister of defence, Carl-Axel Blomdahl, has ordered an investigation into the fake major's career and informed NATO about the incident.
 

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