Photos Armenia v Azerbaijan

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Russians themselves stated that there is no record of either Turkish military personnel and weaponry in Azerbaijan (i.e. F-16s) or large scale presence of Jihadi fighters on Azeri side. According to the Russians these rumors are either spread by Armenians or even Turkey which wants to draw Russia into another war.
 
So what options do people see?

1- Azerbaijan victory, regain lost ground
2- Armenians wear down Azerbaijans, no real change on ground
3- just fizzles along, with drones, arty strikes etc. for a few months, no change on ground.
4- Russia, Turkey and uncle tom cobbly join in and it goes crazy.


Any other options?

2 will be the end of Azerbaijan's president Aliev so he push for ground gains. I wonder how long will it be before one or both sides go low on ammunition/weapons at the front line?
 
Russians themselves stated that there is no record of either Turkish military personnel and weaponry in Azerbaijan (i.e. F-16s) or large scale presence of Jihadi fighters on Azeri side. According to the Russians these rumors are either spread by Armenians or even Turkey which wants to draw Russia into another war.

Was this official Russian statement or bloggers/journalists opinion?
 
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Fighting on the Eastern Border of Karabakh.
 
Was this official Russian statement or bloggers/journalists opinion?

"Independent Newspaper" is a moderate voice very close to Kremlin. The editor-in-chief / owner parties are very, very well attended primarily by the highest ranking Foreign Ministry and Intelligence community officials. This is way above regular journalist, no name blogger on the internet. ;)

It's a Russian modus operandi. The most important things are told between the lines.

Тема турецкого следа в Карабахе выглядит ловушкой для России
 
Azerbaijani artillery and MRLS working on Armenian positions

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Azerbaijani kamikaze drones targetting the Armenian tanks.

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The Azerbaijanis use the Turkish drone tactics.
The Turks pioneered a new drone tactics that has no equivalent in any NATO country or, possibly, even any country in the world.
While most of militaries in all over the world are concerned about their drone losses, the Turks are not as long as they achieve their goal.
I read a Polish article in a military magazine about the Turks' rationale.
Let's say, the Turks want to destroy a Tor missile system that costs $15 mln. They attack it with drones and are not scared of losing a few of them while doing so. The drone costs $0.5mln, so they can sacrifice a few in order to destroy the Tor. They consider their mission accomplished as long as a piece of the equipment they destroy is worth more money than the drones they lost.
They keep their drone production stable, so their number never goes down, as they produce more than they lose.

Also, after a MiG-29 manned by a Russian mercenary destroyed a Turkish Hawk SAM system in Libya, the Turks adapted, changed their tactics and shot down another MiG-29 with a Hawk SAM.
 
So what options do people see?

1- Azerbaijan victory, regain lost ground
2- Armenians wear down Azerbaijans, no real change on ground
3- just fizzles along, with drones, arty strikes etc. for a few months, no change on ground.
4- Russia, Turkey and uncle tom cobbly join in and it goes crazy.


Any other options?

2.
Azerbaijan opened with SEAD and precision strikes on ammo depots. Evidently none of that built up enough confidence to deploy air power and provide sufficient CAS for advancing armored / mechanized units, which are paying a toll. No meaningful breakthrough was achieved, while the NKR / Armenian army was still mobilizing. By now, the Azeri military should have been boasting with ubstantial gains. They lost their momentum and resort to dumping their entire arsenal on the Armenian positions in the hope that the defenders eventualy lose nerve and scatter. But I doubt that will happen. Armenians are not giving up their positions. They make very effective use of their ATGMs and special operations forces to counter any advances on ground.
 
The Azerbaijanis use the Turkish drone tactics.
The Turks pioneered a new drone tactics that has no equivalent in any NATO country or, possibly, even any country in the world.
While most of militaries in all over the world are concerned about their drone losses, the Turks are not as long as they achieve their goal.
I read a Polish article in a military magazine about the Turks' rationale.
Let's say, the Turks want to destroy a Tor missile system that costs $15 mln. They attack it with drones and are not scared of losing a few of them while doing so. The drone costs $0.5mln, so they can sacrifice a few in order to destroy the Tor. They consider their mission accomplished as long as a piece of the equipment they destroy is worth more money than the drones they lost.
They keep their drone production stable, so their number never goes down, as they produce more than they lose.

Also, after a MiG-29 manned by a Russian mercenary destroyed a Turkish Hawk SAM system in Libya, the Turks adapted, changed their tactics and shot down another MiG-29 with a Hawk SAM.

They are utilizing the two main UAV platforms to hit targets which are namely IAI Harop that kamikaze attacks on S-300 performend and also the T-72s seen on the video is destroyed by them and Bayraktar TB2 to hit other ground targets, artillery SAM and armour. I honestly can't see the logic of loosing a Harop unit just to hit a basic T-72 tank or a defensive position with few soldiers, for more precious systems likle S-300 it's totally logical but for other low-profile systems TB-2 is much more suitable than that.

Azerbaijanis claiming that they captured Colonel Spartak Koceryan dead who appeared to be one of the Armenian front-line commanders.

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Azerbaijanis UCAVs targetting Armenian reservists.

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It looks like the Azeris learned their lessons from the Turks in Syria and Libya. They heavily invested in the technology and try to make it work. If they lose some equipment rather they soldiers, their losses will be easily replenished, so they will be able to recover quickly and resume the conflict once a year or even twice a year rather than once every 3-5 years. They will be able to take and keep a few thousands of hectares of N-K each time.
The Armenians will buy a lot of equipment from Russia, so the latter will make some good money as well.
 
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Armenian press showed the photos of the Su-25 wreckage shot down by Azerbaijani MiG-29 over Armenian airspace yesterday at 10:15 AM . Pilot, Major Valeri Danelin, was KIA . However they are still insisting on it's shot down bya Turkish F-16


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Here is a Google image and more current statelite shot of the Ganja airfield taken yesterday, the place where Armenian press claims more than a squadron of Turkish F-16s (20 aircraft per sq) located. However the field itself was deserted by military and using for civilian purposes only for almost 20 years and clearly visible that there are not any sort of civilian/military activity goes on there since it's infrasturcture is not suitable for any type of combat jet.

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Armenian refugee convoy from Nagorno-Karabakh.

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IAI Harop



Armenian side is trying to pin Turkey to involve of it's military assets alongside with Azebaijani forces in actual combat against them to get the sympathy of the international arena but that's far from being true. Just like their other claims like "Turkish backed jihadists" and "Turkish F-16s over Armenian airspace" just to misguide the reality of the situation which is a territorial dispute between two states after the collapse of USSR and going on for 30 years.

...

As I mentioned on another thread before, the situation of Southern Azerbaijani population who are living in the borders of Northern Iran has been a major problem between the relations of Iran and Azerbaijan which explains Iran's indirect support to Armenia and also Israel's strong relation with Azerbaijan. According to some sources Southern Azerbaijanis of the Iran started to stop and burn the supply trucks going to Armenia from northern Iran. You can search and find few videos of the burned trucks shared from different sources regarding the issue. Iranian authorities stated that they arrested 50 Azeri ethnic citizens who are suspected to involve these kind of activities in past three days.

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If the claims are true the current conflict is becoming to extenting itself beyond two main states to other main regional actors. We will see how it ends.
fight with armenia not enough and will fight iran together?arzerbaijan strongest!
 
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