There are many aspects of this purchase that seem off to me, and it is certainly not a step in the right direction of the most efficient path to upgrade the Polish Armed Forces. While the Technical Modernization Program is perfectly imperfect, it is at least a basis to build on and create confidence that the military and government have a workable blueprint.
As I understand it, the 1st armored will now have cycled through 3 different tanks in 5 years, assuming the introduction of the Abrams is Fait accompli, and will now have to reverse course on logistics, training and support systems including storage build-outs that were finally gaining traction for the 2A5. These kind of zig-zags hardly support continuous operability.
250 M1A2 v3 will substantially improve the combat capability of the mechanized forces, but without a capable IFV (Borsuk) or attack helo or tracked AA assets to name but a few missing pieces they will be limited in their impact. Perhaps they count on the Americans providing some of the more transportable assets like Patriot, HIMARS (curious procurement of 18 fire HOMAR units by Poland?) etc. I don't have knowledge of what goes on behind the scenes, but I am sceptical that it is overly nuanced.
Speaking of participation of Polish industry why are the Borsuks delayed until 2023/2024? Production capacity issue? Enlarge the capacity. Also, the Poles are in dire need of modern helos throw some money at the S-70i. Those acquisitions outside the normal MOD funding may be a bit more palatable to some taxpayers.
Regardless, if the Poles are really serious about modernization, they will need to finance many more major weapons purchases outside the regular defence budget. It is not clear that this particular purchase will be supportive of a continuation of that process, and there are, of course, limits to the burden the economy can bear and the speed as to what the military can absorb from a logistical, technological, training, and doctrinal perspective. It is going to take time.
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