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Warfare Northwestern Aleppo offensive (2024)

Chazman said:
No navy for the new guys.

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Yeah, the IDF is methodically removing the fangs and claws of the new Syrian government.

Apart from the hits on the very few ships of the Syrian navy and ASM in Latakia, they are mostly focusing on anything AD related along with stockpiles of "spicy" stuff like chemical and biological agents.

Syria has very little ships, in fact a total of 12 missile/torpedo boats, the number of which in working order is unknown but likely lower than 12.
ASM wise Russia took back their Bastion, leaving Syria with a few launchers of them old Styx and Sepal. They also have some Noors from Iran.
Obnoxious stuff, but not really a threat. Better without them anyway though.
 
Ivan le Fou said:
ASM wise Russia took back their Bastion, leaving Syria with a few launchers of them old Styx and Sepal. They also have some Noors from Iran.
Obnoxious stuff, but not really a threat. Better without them anyway though.
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The problem isn't with warships which can defend themselves, but that these yokels start launching them at civilian shipping like cruise liners or oil tankers like Yemeni terrorists.
 
Ivan le Fou said:
Nah, they'll be fine.
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Jolani is probably going to let them go, don't you think? They're just not worth the hassle. And the propaganda value of letting them go is so much greater. If he'd attack the Russians now, pressure would be put on Putin to save face and rethink their withdrawal.

And though it's clear the Syrian people wants the Russians gone, I wouldn't expect a lasting ice age between Damascus and Moscow. Economically, Syria is tied to Russia in a way which Jolani can't ignore.

I'm really curious as to how this is going to play out.

Is Jolani truly a reformed man? Does he mean what he says?

The Taleban also promised moderation when they signed that treaty with Trump in 2018, and broke their promises within weeks of seizing power. With islamists, there's always a convenient fatwa at hand to justify breaking a treaty.

But I'll admit I'm (very slightly) optimistic as of today. No atrocities so far, not even against the regime's nomenclatura. Moreover, unlike the Taleban HTS seems to include people actually interested in and somewhat capable of running a polity.

If they take their refugees back and keep a lid on the militants, I wish them all the best.
 
Chazman said:
No navy for the new guys.

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Turkey will soon establish new naval bases there & since Turks are very good at shipbuilding they would have a navy soon. Turks build many ships Ukraine to Pakis
 
First Turkish troops at Southern Syria! CSAR teams helping prisoners

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CemalPasha said:
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No such thing as free agency in the world view of Russian nationalists.

It's understandable Dugin would be mightily displeased, though.

The loss of Syria has proven Russia is not a global power. Every modern great power has the ability to project military might to at least one faraway location, but only global powers are capable of dealing simultaneously with multiple crises in different locations.

In that sense, the fall of Assad is humiliating for Russia. It's actually much, much worse than Afghanistan was for NATO. The West left Afghanistan of its own free will; the Russians meant to stay and could do nothing as the wave washed them away.

The fall of Assad and Russia's inability to crush the uprising will also be a warning sign to authoritarian regimes allied with Russia. Syria is the second time (after Armenia) in as many years where Putin couldn't or didn't want to honour formal pledges to assist an ally of his.

You can bet the juntas in West Africa are anxiously chewing on their fingernails right now.
 
This is how Turkey get fo many TFSA from Syria. Turkman population of Syria is up to 3+ million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Turkmen#Current_population

1733789565229.webp
 
muck said:
No such thing as free agency in the world view of Russian nationalists.

It's understandable Dugin would be mightily displeased, though.

The loss of Syria has proven Russia is not a global power. Every modern great power has the ability to project military might to at least one faraway location, but only global powers are capable of dealing simultaneously with multiple crises in different locations.

In that sense, the fall of Assad is humiliating for Russia. It's actually much, much worse than Afghanistan was for NATO. The West left Afghanistan of its own free will; the Russians meant to stay and could do nothing as the wave washed them away.

The fall of Assad and Russia's inability to crush the uprising will also be a warning sign to authoritarian regimes allied with Russia. Syria is the second time (after Armenia) in as many years where Putin couldn't or didn't want to honour formal pledges to assist an ally of his.

You can bet the juntas in West Africa are anxiously chewing on their fingernails right now.
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Exactly!
Currently, Russia has lost influence across the Middle East. First in Libya, and now in Syria. Their only remaining ally in the region seems to be Algeria, while Iran and Hezbollah appear to be in significant trouble. The war in Ukraine has effectively weakened Russia, and they’ve also faced setbacks in Armenia. NATO and Turkey have strengthened Georgia, turning it into a stronghold.

At this point, it seems that Turkey and Israel are emerging as the key players in the region, akin to teams advancing to the semifinals and finals of a competition. In Syria, it’s as if they’re playing a strategic game of chess, and it remains to be seen how this will unfold.

Regarding the U.S., it appears Trump may abandon the SDF, as his policies suggest a trend of scaling back commitments.

On a personal note, I take solace in the fact that these developments may lead to a reduction in the refugee burden on Europe and Turkey. I hope the new government will adopt a balanced and neutral stance moving forward
 
@muck Also United States appears fully aware of these dynamics. It’s likely that over the next decade, the focus will shift towards China, as Beijing is poised to redefine global power structures. The Middle East chapter seems to be closing, and tensions within China could eventually escalate, drawing American attention and resources.

As for Russia, it might resort to meddling in tribal conflicts in Africa with its Wagner forces, but its global influence is clearly waning. I still find myself wondering when unrest will erupt in the Caucasus. Given Ukraine's success in stirring instability in Syria, it wouldn’t be surprising if its intelligence agencies sought to extend their reach into the Caucasus as well.
 
Humanity has truly lost its mind; what kind of hatred is this?

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CemalPasha said:
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I like you only mention Greece here without mentioning the fact that every other European country is doing the same thing. Please try to show at least a little bit of objectivity-especially when it is so easy to call you out on your bullshit.
 
skyrazr said:
I like you only mention Greece here without mentioning the fact that every other European country is doing the same thing. Please try to show at least a little bit of objectivity-especially when it is so easy to call you out on your bullshit.
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Hold your tounge, Greece is first gate to Europe if they close it's done for those fortune seekers. I'm not dumb nationalist or anti Greek. Just yesterday I shared same things like Germany etc. Don't label me such this. I think Turkey's earnings are burning your back..

d33b9793dff3a65f20dbf0864e0138e7.webp
 
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