Russia is too busy with Syria and Libya problems.. and Azeri is not a cripple country like Syria and Libya.. Azeri is a working state, not internally in turmoil and have significantly more firepower and resources compare to Armenia.. Russia has their hands full already with their intervention in Syria and Libya that not showing any sign of positive in their favours.. i bet Russia already stretch thin.. this is a more conflict they can handle, they dont have good economy and logistic to spare for Armenian conflict..
Azerbaijan is just as corrrupt as any ex-Soviet Eastern European and Central Asian states. The state positions are given the individuals with natural gas revenues or from the close circle or relatives of the Aliyev family. For the Aliyev also, he owe hisrularship to Russians, since his father was actualy came as a result fo Russian backed coup attempt against elected president Elfuz Elçibey who was way pro-Turkic than oppotunitist Aliveys. But that's how the things work in politics I guess...
In my humble opinion Aliyev regime can easily mantain itself without Turkey's support, which they actually did very little around 10-15 years ago bcs of the Elçibey affair But without Russia it can not be thinkable for them to act in their own way of authonomy in the region even with the support Turkey or not. Still most of their senior military officers has connection with Russian GRU or FSB or directly trained by them during the "god old Soviet days" . So that summarizes the whoe situation...
I can only speculate, but there is no way that this story happened in the Russian courtyard without some kind of a Russian approval. Approval to the Turks who assured the Azeris that the have the ''Russian OK''.
If the Azeris were indeed the first who attacked, and they were given the ''neutral light'' from Russia via Turkey, they fell into the same trap Saddam fell when the then US ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie assured'' him that in the case of an Iraqi invasion to Kuwait, the US will remain passive. What happened next is history.
The Russians have a chess player's mentality, the don't hesitate to sacrifice their pawns for a winning position. Εvery way i see this situation, the Russians are the only ones who are benefited at the end. A strong Russian arm is expected at some point to stop the clashes , thus reimposing their control on the area.
Don't know much about internal Azeri politics, just that his gorgeous daughter was married to the son of a Russian billionaire who was an ethnic Azeri in order to solidify ties between the countries. Well, that marriage has collapsed, and I've read that Russians connections in the military and security services have been severed in favor of officers aligned with Turkey and the West.
It's not really a Russian courtyard anymore, Russians themselves set things in motion through invasion of Georgia in 2008 that significantly hampered their influence at the end. At the moment, they can't even re-supply Armenians even if they wanted to.
It's not really a Russian courtyard anymore, Russians themselves set things in motion through invasion of Georgia in 2008 that significantly hampered their influence at the end. At the moment, they can't even re-supply Armenians even if they wanted to.
Azerbaijani retreat from Madaghis, about 24 hours after their announcement of capturing the village. NKR announced retreat of certain areas earlier today, so unclear current status of that land.
Agreed, the "Artsakh Self Defense Army" is something between a militia and an organized army. The army of the Republic of Armenia has yet to participate in this conflict, and I don't believe they have moved any assets to Karabakh as of yet.I've seen plenty of ATGMs fired at a handful of soldiers in Syria, but I didn't think I would see it between organized armies. Seems a waste of ordnance on low value targets that other weapon systems are intended for (and much better at).
I agree with Mike - cluster munitions would have been the better choice. Not that the soldiers who escaped are complaining.
"Paris seems to be removing itself from participating in the settlement,"
Uhhh...why not? Even Azerbaijan accuses Russia of doing this? Unless you are specifically referring to this past week, in which case I have heard anecdotally it's still happening but can't find any proof so feel free to take with a grain of salt. However, there is nothing preventing Russia from arming Armenians right now, and in fact it is in Russia's interest to keep a balance of power.
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