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Yes. Please do that.
Photos Armenia v Azerbaijan
- Thread starter saiga
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Yes. Please do that.
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Russia is too busy with Syria and Libya problems.. and Azeri is not a cripple country like Syria and Libya.. Azeri is a working state, not internally in turmoil and have significantly more firepower and resources compare to Armenia.. Russia has their hands full already with their intervention in Syria and Libya that not showing any sign of positive in their favours.. i bet Russia already stretch thin.. this is a more conflict they can handle, they dont have good economy and logistic to spare for Armenian conflict..
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Dunno, with both sides fielding the same equipment, all this captured vids, are kind of meh, easy to fake and just food to keep entusiasm high back at home...
Same applies to vids of surrendering enemy soldiers when their identities are unknown faces cant be seen and cant be veryfied.
I think that somewhere in Baku, someone made a big mistake. A lightning dash that was supposed to "free" the occupied Nagorno Karabak, is stalling, and after a week only minimum territorial gains can be shown. Nobody starts a war to get this outcome after one week, at least not in this age. In the meantime casualties on Azerbaijan side remain secret, but there is photo and video evidence that the offensive didnt come cheap when it comes to the blood paid. So it negates the posibility of a long campaign where enemy is destroyed by air superiority and drone usage, and only after that ground forces are commited to minimize casualties ala "Desert storm" " Kosovo war" "Irak Invasion", etc...
Big boys are starting to move, talk and flex its muscles, which means that the window of opportunity is closing for the small players. Either comes to cease fire, frozen conflict, return to status quo, or the other side being propped up with shiny gear and non talkative polite mercs.
Just my thoughts at this moment
Same applies to vids of surrendering enemy soldiers when their identities are unknown faces cant be seen and cant be veryfied.
I think that somewhere in Baku, someone made a big mistake. A lightning dash that was supposed to "free" the occupied Nagorno Karabak, is stalling, and after a week only minimum territorial gains can be shown. Nobody starts a war to get this outcome after one week, at least not in this age. In the meantime casualties on Azerbaijan side remain secret, but there is photo and video evidence that the offensive didnt come cheap when it comes to the blood paid. So it negates the posibility of a long campaign where enemy is destroyed by air superiority and drone usage, and only after that ground forces are commited to minimize casualties ala "Desert storm" " Kosovo war" "Irak Invasion", etc...
Big boys are starting to move, talk and flex its muscles, which means that the window of opportunity is closing for the small players. Either comes to cease fire, frozen conflict, return to status quo, or the other side being propped up with shiny gear and non talkative polite mercs.
Just my thoughts at this moment
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I disagree with them being stretched thin. They have more than enough man-and firepower left in the North Caucasus military district and occupied regions of Georgia to wage a successful war against all South Caucasus states. An entire air-and naval fleet closeby with lots of ballistic missiles.
Plus last time I checked there were some 3,000 Russian servicemen stationed at the outskirts of Gyumri in Armenia proper. But I doubt it will go as far as them intervening, I guess as long as Turkey doesn't invade Armenia.
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I think you underestimate the situation now.. no man and firepower can withstand small drone attack and precision strike like the turkish TB2, TB2 is perfected in war and its battle proven.... u think u can destroying with SAM or what so ever, Turkey have no problem in resupplying them coz its mass produce and its a homegrown product.. right now offensive from Armenia is stall due Azeri drone strike and more of its soldier fled the battlefield, due not able to fed azeri attack armenia already come out with dirty solution.. targeting civilians in Ganja and other provinces.. things that cowards always do...hahaha
and Turkey will not invade Armenia, they just supporting Azeri to takes want suppose to be theirs... Azeri already prepare for the battle and Armenian is still in a dream and underestimate Azeri like in 90s... i bet Armenian is bitting their fingers now.. is a conflict u arent suppose to start back...hehehe
Anyone who has seen a map with topography will see that "victories" like in Talish and Madagiz are hollow. Both of these towns are literally at the bottom of mountains controlled by NKR (see attached). NKR can shell them to dust any time it wants, they literally have no strategic signifiance.
I have yet to see any actual Azerbaijani progress...
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What a ridiculous claim. I think Russia can destroy entire Azeri military infrastructure and take out their armed forces out of the game with cost of annual military trainings like Kavkaz-2020 and similar.
Cost of current military operations (Donbass, Syria, Libya) are very limited at the moment.
You just need to check some numbers. Russia defeat Georgia in 2008 with 15K forces, Ukraine in 2014 with 30K (total with local insurgents). In the same time in Chechnia Russia deployed 100K (!) forces for years in times when Russian economics was about 1/3 or 1/4 of current. Russian army prepared for much wide conflicts then some regional war. However, i do not expect Russian full scale involvement for obvious political reason - Russia want keep relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
My personal opinion - we must declare non-fly zone in the region, strike Azeris with ballistic\cruise missiles and then airstrikes if they will not obey.
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My man, judging by your writing style, you are a 15-17 Turkish/Azeri guy living in the U.S.A who has arrived there very recently.
Check the chronology about who started shelling civilian objects first. For your information, Azerbaijan had started shelling Stepanakert before the Armenians shelled any town/city in Azerbaijan. So, who is the coward?
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The Armenians managed to down quite a number of drones. If they are able to do that, so is definitly Russia, and iirc Russia itself can currently boast with the 3rd or 4th largest UAV fleet on the planet. They have satellites and ballistic missiles, which are all assets the Russians have deployed with great effect in Chechnya and Syria.
We are not talking about the same rag tag force that fought in the Chechen wars or Georgia. The Russian military has undergone massive reforms after 2008 and has significantly improved and upgraded since then to adress all the performance issues of that war. Especialy when it comes to combined arms, ew, and drones. Essentialy everything the Azeris got, the Russians have a better version of it, greater munition variety, and in much greater quantities.
Mate, I honestly don't see how Turkey could catch up with Russia in terms of weapon output.
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I cant see the Azeri's going against whatever Russia says - their supply of new kit and ammo alone, ties them to Russia's control. Hell maybe they would welcome a no-fly being 'forced' upon them? As they clearly haven't met their objectives, so would be a good way out of the current combat situation.
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You forgot about Ukraine, as Russia is busy there as well. The thing is, Russia is not as much busy as you think in any of these countries.
When it comes to Syria, Russian troops focus on policing. They don't participate in land combats anymore or, if so, their contribution is minimal. They have also reduced the number of daily air sorties. Al-Asshat is able to finish the war on his own, if the sultan pulls out his troops. That's precisely why Russian troops are in Syria: to watch the Turks and to play some "games" in order to allow al-Asshat to take Idlib bit by bit. They just keep the sultan in check.
Libya is a also something different, as the tsar is not interested in finishing that war, but to keep it going and the conflict to simmer. If he really wanted the GNA to win, it would have happened a long time ago.
Armenia is a different story for obvious reasons. It's a country that is very important for Russia and it belonged to the Soviet Union. It's more important than Syria and Libya, but less than Ukraine. It's something like Russia's soft underbelly, so Russia is not interested in Armenia getting phucked up, as such a scenario could destabilise Russian Chechnya and Dagestan.
All previous wars in the last 12 years told me that Russia was able to use its forces economically. Look how much money and resources the U.S.A. and the KSA used in order to phuck up Syria and how it ended up. Russia used a tiny percentage of that and was able to break the stalemate.
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I had the same impression since the start. Demolishing Azeris won’t cost Russia much effort. And would also prove a good opportunity for real life weapons and tactics training as opposed to bombing sand sandals in Syria.
My concern is over the long term political strategy in the region. Going in guns blazing can solve an immediate problem but bring many issues in the near or distant future. I think for now Russia’s betting on letting both sides tire themselves out, and once both are fatigued and flaccid, barge in with an offer nobody can refuse.
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iran want come in azerbaijan soon!
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You hit the nail on the head. Russia perfecting the economy of deployment is an often overlooked fact. It is morbid, but effective, and aims to minimize the loss of core military assets, which it mostly achieves. Some people still seem to harbor that false image of a mass of conscripts riding on outdated Soviet hardware. Bloodied and worn down from fighting insurgencies etc. To think that was already delusional in 2008. The Ukrainians sadly got the full taste of that doctrine. What could be true however, is that Russia may have in fact stretched thin it's more "expandable" resources. What means, if it really came down to it, Turkey and Azerbaijan would actualy face Russia's core military might.
About a large scale war between Russia and Turkey, we can argue all day long. But if Russia decided to help Armenia fight the Azeris off disputed areas and Turkish reinforcements, imho it would be a very one-sided fight.
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Since I'm not a native language speaker I have to rely on Russian interpretations and read between the lines. Azeris were getting exasperated that three decades of "negotiations" didn't produce anything. Forget about about Karabakh itself, Azeris couldn't even get "undisputed" territories occupied by Armenia back. At the same time, since the "color" revolution in Armenia a couple of years. the new government corrected its foreign policy and began approachment with the West, France in particular. Azeris became even more alarmed.
And, of course, there was a constant ridicule on the part of Armenia toward Azerbajan along the lines "what are you going to do about it?"
Azeris were waiting for an opportunity and decided to strike when the world was preoccupied with US elections, general political situation in the US, Syria, Libya, Belarus and Navalny, and, of course Azerbaijan leadership had Turkish blessing,
That being said, I still can't figure out what Azerbaijan plan was/is. It looks like it had committed just the 1st Army Corps to the fighting out of 5 available. Even though, Azeris caught Armenians off guard in the first hours, their attacks were not that overwhelming, and honestly quite feeble.
How do you see this happening? I personally can't imagine why Russia would intervene.
Russia does not care who is in control of Karabakh. Russia would only intervene if a) Azerbaijan brings the fight to Armenia proper, which is unlikely to happen or b) of Turkey markedly increases their involvement in the current conflict, which also is unlikely to happen for fear of reprisal from Russia.
I'm a native speaker, all Russian media and interviews have been incredibly balanced. Only preference is for fighting to stop. I can see Putin putting pressure on a) Aliyev to back down or b) Pashinyan to give up some territory. Which of those two is more likely is the wildcard here.
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Russia is not interested in confronting Turkey just for the sake of doing it, as Russia's policy is to make Turkey tired of being part of NATO.
It plays into Turkey's hand, offering the latter some alternative military equipment and technology. Putin can say something along the lines using a nice language: "see sultan, your NATO friends don't give a sh1t about you. They don't care about your interests in Syria, they don't want to sell you F35s or Patriots. We can help you". The Russians try to make Turkey dependend on their equipment and natural resources. If they achieve it, dealing with Turkey will be even easier in the future. Just take the note how well Erdo cooperates with Putin, while he cannot come to any understanding with Western leaders.
Turkey has been on France's sh1tlist for a very long time. France wants to confront Turkey in the Mediterranean, Caucasus and the Middle East. The thing is, it's not ready to do it on its own. It cannot find any common ground with Germany, as the latter does not want to take any anti-Turkish action.
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I know. .Just entertaining the thought of how it would probably go down if Turkey made, what I would consider some poor decisions, regarding this conflict.
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