Politics How likely is a civil war in Europe by the end of the 21st century?

[muck]

@bfc1001

Sorry? I can't follow.

@HisRoyalHighness

Politically motivated activism or even political violence aren't akin to civil war, though. And remarkably, you've just happened to fall for the leftist narrative there's supposedly a (dangerously?) short path between words and deeds. I think it's a (dangerously?) long path. Barking dogs don't bite.

At any rate, sadly I do not share your enthusiasm with regards to the supposed integrative function of the 2nd amendment – or the political maturity of citizens in general. How many people from either side of the fold protest for free speech in favour of speakers they don't agree with, for example?

I'm afraid it's not in our nature to be so generous or foresightful. And even temporary alliances between those defending their own same rights are easily broken apart – otherwise the principle of "divide et impera" wouldn't have had such a storied career.

Both Americans and Europeans are off too well to fight, for wealth has always been an effective pacifier. People who have something to lose don't usually fight and will tolerate many an injustice. That is why extremists almost exclusively recruit themselves amongst the poor (or the few amongst the elites that have become bored with or ashamed of their affluence). At the same time, we're highly unlikely to take up arms to protect those we do not know.

Last but not least, the West has arrived in a day and age where the last gasps of Christian values and a smug sense of cultural superiority have formed an unlikely bond to exorcise any wish for retribution or notion of fighting for what's yours. I used to think these sentiments were born from liberal decadence, but have since realised they're just as prevalent among the right. The former call it toxic masculinity, the latter the barbarism of an inferior culture.

 

[Junglejim]

Some of you will not be invited at Chateau d' Jim for all your rethoric... Then again being Filipino, I would probably start a far right party in Europe banning immigrants as a whole, targetting specifically Filipinos.

When the US Army felt the Philippine colony as being far more racist than the South, that some grade A racist S**t.

 

[PEMM]

Well, you are a honorary Finn, if I remember correctly. Which guarantees you entry.

We don't take such things away, we don't even take dual citizenship away from known terrorists. In fact we don't even take freedom away from terrorists.

More than 20 people have returned to Finland from the conflict zone in Syria and Iraq. They are not yet known to be suspected of any crimes.

"There are those kinds of returnees that have settled in here and live a pretty normal life," says the Interior Ministry’s Head of Development Tarja Mankkinen.

This is what we have been talking about here for past few months. Government can't decide if we should help ISIS-brides away from Syria...

Is Finland looking to repatriate ‘terrorists’? 5 relevant questions about the security issues around Finns held at al-Hol

Finnish citizens in Syria pose a security risk that is not removed by leaving them in a prison camp.

yle.fi

 

[PEMM]

There are so many cant's in our state, and many other European states.

Can't:
1. Prosecute members of ISIS (no evidence)
2. Separate kids from their ISIS-recruiter mothers (unless it's found out that they have slapped their children, then it's on, can't have that ?)
3. Create laws that would take their dual citizenship (ex post facto)
4. Return foreign terrorists home (other countries have unfair punishments)
5. Take deportees into custody (Professor/Ombudsman/Chancellor of something said it's unfair, against rule of law or some moral principle that forces us to do idiotic things; gibe residence permit instead)
6. Return deportees to their countries (no return agreement)
7. Follow deportees with foot straps (Professor/Ombudsman/Chancellor of something said it's unfair, against rule of law or some moral principle that forces us to do idiotic things)

Can:
1. Je suis
2. Prosecute people who complain to politicians/public servants in charge of those cant's above, using mean terms (Professor/Ombudsman/Chancellor of something said: "Ok, no moral principles limiting that").

We are living in a simulation, I tell you.

 

[Junglejim]

Maybe your country has been too peaceful that they forget what the real world is. I mean we love our muslim brothers here and we do everything to hrlp them (free flight for them to go in a hajj)... But every now and then we do send them 155mm reminders to remind them whats what, when they forget.

I love Europe and enjoy my stay there and would hate it being destroyed by naive Euros who think all is well in the planet

 

[Mordoror]

Maybe your country has been too peaceful that they forget what the real world is. I mean we love our muslim brothers here and we do everything to hrlp them (free flight for them to go in a hajj)... But every now and then we do send them 155mm reminders to remind them whats what, when they forget.

I love Europe and enjoy my stay there and would hate it being destroyed by naive Euros who think all is well in the planet

You (ironicaly) get a point
I think we, european, haven't forgotten what is the real world. The thing is, given the bad habit we had to slaughter each other en masse and accross all the continent since 1618, and that at industrial level since 1866, nobody is too willing to have another round.
Hence the leniency toward some. Which imo is counter productive because in the end, once fed up, we could again show our good old habits back if pushed too far.
But the too far is very very far, precisely because nobody wants another european civil war at the continental scale.

 

[PEMM]

Edit: I couldn't read this post without making a loony impression to myself, so I removed it.

So yeah, I'm going to avoid such posts from now on.

 

[Fluff]

You (ironicaly) get a point
I think we, european, haven't forgotten what is the real world. The thing is, given the bad habit we had to slaughter each other en masse and accross all the continent since 1618, and that at industrial level since 1866, nobody is too willing to have another round.
Hence the leniency toward some. Which imo is counter productive because in the end, once fed up, we could again show our good old habits back if pushed too far.
But the too far is very very far, precisely because nobody wants another european civil war at the continental scale.

I don’t feel Europe faces any serious threat. I don’t believe immigration is a Trojan horse. I do think poor integration is a threat, but just of random violence, not civil war etc.

really Europe is doing what USA has done, I.e. ensure the violence of a war takes place in someone else’s country, we haven’t all hung out in Afghanistan for the benefit of the 80% of afghans that are peaceful, we hung out there to give the terrorists/mutters etc from Afghanistan and from western countries somewhere to go, and fight our fully trained and equipped troops, rather than shooting at me or you, on the high street. With air support etc, it’s worked out ok, of course we have lost people, but really overall less people than if we had that violence in our nice safe western countries.

as someone else said, when people are affluent, there is more to lose, so less fighting.The rest of the world still aspires to a similar life, so we must be doing something right.
If there were a serious threat to europe, not that I can envisage one, we would soon unite, convert consumer goods factories to weapons etc, and we would still expect our tech to give us an edge.
And western countries have absorbed losses, 2 attacks on London Bridge, still millions cross that bridge every day, it would take a lot to change that, and we would hit back - don’t listen to Jeremy Corbyn, that you can’t attack the bad country, just because some people are bad, if pushed enough, I would expect uk and eu countries to hit back.

 

[elbmek]

not exactly a 'civil' war because that is internal nation fighting themselves. I do foresee revolutions in some countries when the migrants start to flex their muscles and the homegrown military decide enough is enough. One country I am fearful that this will not take place, here in the UK. Many people here are wimps and apathy rules. They are so scared of radicals that they back down every time, giving the BLMs and others more power. BLM now want to become a political party; that might tip the balance once and for all, either way. We have already lost our police and its looking like France is going the same way according to France24 news this morning, support for the police in both countries is waning rapidly.

 

[Fluff]

not exactly a 'civil' war because that is internal nation fighting themselves. I do foresee revolutions in some countries when the migrants start to flex their muscles and the homegrown military decide enough is enough. One country I am fearful that this will not take place, here in the UK. Many people here are wimps and apathy rules. They are so scared of radicals that they back down every time, giving the BLMs and others more power. BLM now want to become a political party; that might tip the balance once and for all, either way. We have already lost our police and its looking like France is going the same way according to France24 news this morning, support for the police in both countries is waning rapidly.

From the 2011 Census

Main facts and figures

• according to the 2011 Census, the total population of England and Wales was 56.1 million, and 86.0% of the population was White
• people from Asian ethnic groups made up the second largest percentage of the population (at 7.5%), followed by Black ethnic groups (at 3.3%), Mixed/Multiple ethnic groups (at 2.2%) and Other ethnic groups (at 1.0%)

An immigrant uprising, even assuming they all got together, isn't going to succeed. Sure London, maybe Birmingham could see some bother, but there are alot of shotguns in the rest of the country. Regional TA units aren't just for Fighting Russia........

BLM, the other nutters, are tolerated, if it ever got serious you would see detentions, deportations etc. The States first priority is its own survival.

And people will do a lot for a tin of beans 5G and free wifi.....

 

[muck]

If you look at how effectively radical Muslims can take over entire neighbourhoods, that threat doesn't seem averted just yet. Radicals don't need the numbers. The definition of "civil war" is a broad one anyway.

The Troubles were relatively bloodless in comparison. and the hostilities were even largely confined to certain cities. Yet still they were a full-blown civil war and might be considered a blueprint for what to expect under such circumstances in a first world country.

@elbmek's diagnosis of terminal apathy is justified, I think. The 21st century has just begun, and we already see a decline of social cohesion. You don't need to look as far as to divisive political activism to observe the signs. For instance, all across Europe volunteer fire departments struggle badly to find new members.

I'm afraid that future generations have already demonstrated their unwillingnes to fight for the common good.

The public's response to pandemic-related emergency policies strikes me as very revealing, too. You're free to disagree with the lockdown to your heart's desire, but you're not going to convince me that most of the opposition stems from constitutional concerns. A significant majority especially of the younger generations just can't be bothered to make sacrifices for society.

 

[Junglejim]

The younger generations seems like they cant make sacrifices for society because out of all generation these current generation is bombarded buy non stop information from the time they wake up to the time they sleep. These information is from all over the world non stop. This makes them tune out and makes the community problems seems small for them to care. So Syria burning or the non stop beheadings in Paris, Kenya etc kinda makes the need to volunteer as a fire fighter seem like a small thing, for example.

 

[muck]

That probably does play a role … but so does the fact that from dawn till dusk they're constantly being told they're special, unique and that if their dreams don't come true it's only because they're being held back by imaginary foes like the "patriarchy". An even bigger role, I should imagine. The sobering symptoms lie bare in all walks of life.

Personnel managers despair of the crass demands made by young job applicants. Teachers have been growing tired of giving accurate marks knowing that if they do they'll be beleaguered or even sued by their students' parents. And then there's the black ingratitude of "Generation Greta" and its staggering belief that their ill-informed opinions and narcissistic convictions should outweigh expertises and the common good.

 

[Junglejim]

That probably does play a role … but so does the fact that from dawn till dusk they're constantly being told they're special, unique and that if their dreams don't come true it's only because they're being held back by imaginary foes like the "patriarchy". An even bigger role, I should imagine. The sobering symptoms lie bare in all walks of life.

Personnel managers despair of the crass demands made by young job applicants. Teachers have been growing tired of giving accurate marks knowing that if they do they'll be beleaguered or even sued by their students' parents. And then there's the black ingratitude of "Generation Greta" and its staggering belief that their ill-informed opinions and narcissistic convictions should outweigh expertises and the common good.

Yet it was our generations that built them. An example, there is a bill now in the Philippines thats waiting to be passed and its a bill banning children from joining full contact sports, with some serious fines to parents. Talked about weakening the future, last time something like was proposed was when we were a spanish colony and they wanted a passive population

 

[morris]

Would war in EU between EU members count as civil war, what about between NATO members or war in Cyprus or Balkans?

 

[muck]

Would war in EU between EU members count as civil war, what about between NATO members or war in Cyprus or Balkans?

I could see why some people would interpret a war between members of the European Union as a civil war but all the Union's members retain their international personality and statehood. As such, any hostility between them would have to be seen as an international conflict. For NATO, this is even the more true.

 

[morris]

I could see why some people would interpret a war between members of the European Union as a civil war but all the Union's members retain their international personality and statehood. As such, any hostility between them would have to be seen as an international conflict. For NATO, this is even the more true.

There will be hybrid civil wars with court battles to decide if they can be called civil wars.

 

[muck]

A civil war is usually understood to be an armed conflict within a single nation. The EU is, in some respect, similar to a very loose confederacy of states – but it has no statehood of its own. As for NATO, I don't think anyone would ever deem an armed conflict between NATO members as a civil war. It's a military alliance of explicitely sovereign states, nothing more.

 

[nicememe]

I was playing around with ideas of civil war in Europe myself for roughly 5 to 6 years now. Since it feels like the only plausible conclusion to the mess the current elite created.

But now I'm also seeing trends that the nationalistic hardline parties are gaining public momentum in EU, not just as a response to migrant policies, but also as a response to NATO-aligned proxies attempting to jeopardize relations with Russia in trade and security.
Just looking at overall developments across EU today, the union is relentlessly stockpiling huge problems with no solutions in sight. Poland's and Hungary's rebellion against EU's elite, Turkey's successful attempts to pressure and humiliate EU, the disastrous failure of the Ukraine project, the likely upcoming war between Moldova and Russia (with semi-Romanian involvement), Baltics' utmost success at destroying their trade relations with their neighbors, and now the fairly questionable status of EU citizenship and Schengen zone as the Pandemic pretty much buried those into the ground, at least until the quarantine is lifted... it appears to me that if the EU is to survive by the end of the 21st century, it will have to undergo a very substantial transformation. And there will be a naturally strong push towards that transformation regardless of what anyone wants. This transformation will begin with the victory of nationalist/opposition parties in key west-EU states. And this slightly changes my vision of the future already. As originally, when I started envisioning civil war, I didn't consider it to be possible for the opposition to assume positions of power. How it will progress from there is hard to say, but if my forecast is anywhere near accurate, then before we'll be seeing any civil wars (if any at all) we'll first see a new refreshed elite engaging in Nazi-inspired treatment of incompatible cultures.

Alternatively, we can consider a different transformation scenario, in which the current EU establishment doubles-down on its long-term goal of the EU integration project, which foresees transforming EU into a United States of Europe federal-style country. And once it has all the mandates and tools of influence in place, it can crack down on any internal or external problem in sight. But at this point I see this development pretty implausible, as the grip over east/central European member states is loosening as things stand today at least.

 

[morris]

There is an armed conflict within Ukraine but for political propaganda reason EU and US officials insist on not calling it a civil war.