Politics How likely is a civil war in Europe by the end of the 21st century?

First off, let me say that even my title for this thread is a controversial one and maybe laughable even.

However, just a few days ago in France, a member of the govt of Macron suggested that Europe and the EU particularly should get 50M immigrants by 2050 because of our low birthrates, and these migrants would help pay the pensions of the indigenous in Europe by then.

How does a continent welcome 50 millions say, Sudanese, algerians, Malians, Morrocans, Pakistanis or Afghan in only 30 years?

If they are legally migrating and then working, it shouldn't be a problem, but will that be true of every of them? Probably not.

Also, it's clear that among the 50M he or others humanitarians want for Europe, 90% will be Muslims, whether Sunni or Shiite.

In the meantime, "White population" are on the decline because of their fertility rates.

Add to the mix how much diverse "White Euros" are already... the difference between how eastern Euro countries see the EU and western countries like France, The Netherlands and Germany, Belgium which are all already pretty diverse ethnically speaking.

Look, I'm not going to go ramble like that Psycho Anders Brevik in his Manifesto, but do you all believe we can "integrate" so many people from so many different backgrounds without going, if not civil war, at least some serious unrest...?

Thanks for reading. Discuss.
Several points that are controversial here

Immigrants doesn't mean automaticaly muslims. When you look the stats, 50% of EU migrants are european ones (either intra EU or from outside Schengen area). A tiny bit comes from latin america and Asia (10-15%). The rest comes from the ME and Africa. Of course, numbers vary countries by countries.

80-90% of the muslims that are perceived to be an issue are already working and behaving. The issue is the 10-20% Mofos (either 1st, 2nd or 3d generation). Alas, like in any fruit basket, you need only a rotten apple to spoil the whole content.

Issue is also the political pushes (fed from outside) coming from these communities. Nurtured by the MB, Far left and SJW, a minority is pushing for political gains that are going against our values. Problem is that this minority is the most vocal.

On the last 2 points, the problem is a political one.
We should cut foreign funding to communities, increase justice, LE and jail budgets. Ah, OOOps, gonna cost money so no no for the technocrats clamped on the 3% deficit issue. Then comes the appease policy. A bunch of these problem riddled communities are poor. A lot of laisser faire is a way to keep the lid on the boiler (for example, underground economy is what feed a lot of people in our banlieues). Cut off these funds and people will have nothing more to lose. And an empty stomach is something very dangerous for the stability of the State.

About integration, we have,as a sole country, integrated in a matter of months, 1.5 millions immigrants of SEA (boat people) in the 70s. It is possible. Or at least it was possible but you need a strong state policy and avoid meddling of foreign influence groups. It is not acceptable to have migrants hijacked by beardies as soon as they land here. It is not acceptable to have beardies distribute food and clothes (for PR points) to poors. They are winning if the State is resigning from some of its responsabilities, which is the case.

To conclude, i don't see an European civil war, nor a civil war at all except in case of exceptionnal event that will spark the clusterfuck (like an exceptionaly made terror operation). Even the Bataclan and Nice didn't triggered hunt for muslims. You'd need something bigger.
What i see is a slow erosion of fundamental rights (which is already the case) in the name of security, a turn toward a hard handed policy and in the end, some areas that will remain slumps and S**t holes while the rest of the population will carry on its life.
Much like you can see in USA with the gang riddled areas and in South America with the favelas and other no go zones that spill from time to time to richer areas.
Wait isn't it already the case ?


PS : i, unfortunately, knows pretty well the mechanisms to obtain a civil war. For that you need a top down lead of the things. As long as the politicians remain level headed and are not turning into community endorsing idiots, ethnicity pointing or praising stoopids, religious zealots the risk is below tiny. If the top leaders begins to feed hate/miscontent by playing communities against communities, well the risk turns real. See former YU for best (or worst) example. Yet, you needed 3 separate idiots head of state playing their game to achieve the disaster.
 
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Actually its not really the religion per se but more the culture from the area you harvest your brown people.
One of those cultural things being; taking Islam too seriously.

Or... or... oooooooor... people actually get over the skin color and they start living together. Does it always have to be civil war or racial war with the west. Jeesas! And im the one with 5 guns and 1000 rounds of ammo.

Come on JJ, you know it's not about skin color for people, except to those few ehtno-nationalists. Most of these groups are not even all that different from Europeans on the skin hue department ffs.
 
Isn’t there already a civil war in Europe? Specially a country that is getting a lot of attention these past few months?

But in all seriousness, I foresee something like South Africa for the rest of Europe.

Ethnic communities wall themselves off from other ethnic communities and paramilitary/criminal gangs operate in safety in their own communities while attacking outsiders. Authorities become powerless and irrelevant as private security takes the reigns. Corruption, collapsing infrastructure, and economic hardship fuel the fires of hatred and homicides.
Er, not that many gated communities in Europe, we still live on a common street, sure there are areas with high numbers of a particular faith or ethnic group. Not much private security either, mostly just used by businesses. Please contrast with your own country. UK still police are unarmed, just more now carry Tazers.

I think overall in UK there is a % of integration, its just not 100%, and there are the madmen, who sorry to say, are currently drawn to the 'benefits' of radical islam - too ugly to get laid? Blow yourself up and get 72 virgins or whatever.....

I'm sure 1000 years ago all our madmen joined the crusades, see the world and all that. Overtime we grew out of it, sure it sucks to be stabbed on London Bridge, but he got put down pretty quick. and sometimes its not a muslim, just a crazy guy that pushes you under the train......madmen exist.

have to say I have seen more overt segregation on trips to Canada - local Indians tribe were very separate, and in US, how come all gardeners are mexican? In UK second/third generations of any group, start to intermarry, some get good jobs etc. All helped by a vibrant economy, full employment etc. More likely to get serious trouble when recession comes, i.e . Nazi germany, Hitler took advantage of the situation.
 
US, how come all gardeners are mexican?

Started out as cheap labor, then many saved some money and started their own landscaping companies and guess who they hire? Other Mexicans! The American success dream at work!
 
Started out as cheap labor, then many saved some money and started their own landscaping companies and guess who they hire? Other Mexicans! The American success dream at work!
Why build that wall then?
 
Actually its not really the religion per se but more the culture from the area you harvest your brown people.

And the willingness/ability to assimilate into the culture of your new home.
 
One of those cultural things being; taking Islam too seriously.



Come on JJ, you know it's not about skin color for people, except to those few ehtno-nationalists. Most of these groups are not even all that different from Europeans on the skin hue department ffs.
Never really been to Finland but in the places I went around in Europe its seems to me that yes it is not the color of th skin per se, but it does have an impact.
 
One of those cultural things being; taking Islam too seriously.



Come on JJ, you know it's not about skin color for people, except to those few ehtno-nationalists. Most of these groups are not even all that different from Europeans on the skin hue department ffs.
So how many die of terror attacks in thes European countries yearly compared to random killings by Europeans?
 
I don't have a number, but I'm sure the number of random killings is way higher (at least here in north). Why?

However in case of sexual crimes, men from Muslim states are already a majority of cases in Helsinki, despite the fairly small percentage. Edit: checked number and certain groups were 40 times as likely to be suspects in 2017 when compared to natives.
 
Because not everyone sneaking in is a gardener.
Well, it's amusing to hear your president talk about crime in Sweden's Malmö or something as the fact is we've only just begun to observe gang violence or ghetto-like subcultures – phenomenons that've been plaguing many of America's cities for decades.

Now… mildly put, I'm not big on immigration but I'll concede its curious to see so much skepticism coming from the very nation that's essentially invented multiculturalism. A country that's always seemingly believed the self-segregation embodied by neighbourhoods like 'Little Italy' or 'Chinatown' wasn't something society should've averted or be worried about. "The blind will lead the blind" comes to mind.

See, some of our cities are turning into European Chicagoes, that much is true; and some of "our" gangs have embarked on a course that'll perhaps see them resemble Mara Salvatrucha one day. Religious fundamentalism, however – grave an issue though it is –, is of little consequence next to the degree of "ordinary" violent crime emanating from immigrant communities in Europe.

Additionally, it's worthy repeating what you've mentioned earlier about Mexican gardeners setting up their own shops: It's quite possible many of the communities now causing trouble will have been pacified a hundred years from now simply on account of their likely ascension into the middle class. Wealth is not conducive to crime or extremism.

I don't think we'll see a civil war between immigrants and autochthonous Europeans, and I'm not worried about events in so distant a future. See, even those on the left who're still old-school have come to concede unlimited immigration causes immense social and fiscal issues. The moment Europe's hit by a recession – and I'm talking a real recession –, all that "solidarity" will dissolve into thin air.

All those goddamn activist types aren't principled nearly enough e.g. to do without free healthcare once it's between them and an immigrant. Their idealism is but a mark of decadence: of carefreeness in the literal sense. They can only yell "refugees welcome" because they're so well off they feel almost ashamed about their lack of real problems.

However, I do worry about the next two to three decades. What we can expect is a growing degree of conflict between populists and elitists, and between liberals proper and collectivists. This conflict could produce authoritarian governmental tendencies; it could fuel separatist movements; it could lead to a resurgence of actual right- and left-wing terrorism.

Immigration-related issues are but one of the great many fields on which the battles for Europe's soul are fought. The way I see it, I have as much or as little reason to be fearful of the Syrian refugee living next door than you do of the next Guatemalan immigrant you encounter. (Having said that, America's murder rate is about four times as high as ours.)

What we both have to be fearful of is the politics that tolerate crime and blatant violations of society's norms and values. They're way more destructive to our nations than all gangbangers and jihadis combined.
 
I don't have a number, but I'm sure the number of random killings is way higher (at least here in north). Why?

However in case of sexual crimes, men from Muslim states are already a majority of cases in Helsinki, despite the fairly small percentage. Edit: checked number and certain groups were 40 times as likely to be suspects in 2017 when compared to natives.

The reason why is because,the "clash of cultures" is often exaggerated because of the visual differences. I would dare say that the majority of Muslims and Im saying a far bigger majority is integrating and doing something about being accepted in the country. As an example, this is base on what happened over here... a few thousand, 3000 laid seige in one of our city in 2017. and that made the news. Whats often left out is, the muslims in the Armed Forces and the Muslim population who fought the ISIS group as well as the Muslims separatists who are hunting the ISIS now and actually working with the Armed Forces.


In short, the chances of the brownies being Oreos in the futurehas a bigger chance than the headline grabbing "civil wars" scenarios. Hell if I was the Finnish PM i would even put quotas on 5000 Lebanese, Iranian and Syrian... Women. :D
 
If you guys start killing each other over there again leave us out of it.
 
The reason why is because,the "clash of cultures" is often exaggerated because of the visual differences. I would dare say that the majority of Muslims and Im saying a far bigger majority is integrating and doing something about being accepted in the country. As an example, this is base on what happened over here... a few thousand, 3000 laid seige in one of our city in 2017. and that made the news. Whats often left out is, the muslims in the Armed Forces and the Muslim population who fought the ISIS group as well as the Muslims separatists who are hunting the ISIS now and actually working with the Armed Forces.


In short, the chances of the brownies being Oreos in the futurehas a bigger chance than the headline grabbing "civil wars" scenarios. Hell if I was the Finnish PM i would even put quotas on 5000 Lebanese, Iranian and Syrian... Women. :D

I also find that civil war scenario very far fetched. Unless you bring the whole Iraqi population to a single country or something... It's societal changes that worry me.

I'm sure that they are trying, but it's damn difficult to integrate to country like Finland, which is not in need of simple manual labor. The language is already a barrier for employment even for western people who speak English and have gone through higher education. Most of these immigrants don't even speak English (which would help in getting employment), let alone Finnish and their educational level is low as many can't even read. This leads to the fact that employment stays low and they become resentful against the country. Here is a graph from "Labor institute for economic research"


8 years in country, and employment rate is less than 30%, while majority are young, working age, men.

And what often happens is, that because their stay is based on asylum and not on work, people who actually have gotten work get deported. This happened one of the guys in my company. He was not eligible for work permit, because he was just doing cleaning. I'm not sure what happened in the end (as the process of appeals takes years).

Not only are they getting resentful but our state will also get bankrupted due to the fact that we have very generous welfare system.
 
I don´t think we even need to import more migrants to have a problem...

On the other hand I was in Nice and Paris at the end of November, and reading about the country from abroad gave me a worse image than what I felt once there. I saw young "beurs" working as Uber drivers, talked to them a little, say of course they work two jobs...but they work, and I found that reassuring. same goes for some Beurettes running a "le pain quotidien" bakery in Montmartre working their asses off to serve customers with a smile.

One thing howver that I felt is the geographical segregation in Paris due to rising real estate costs. I lived not far from the "Abesses" square, and it was rather mixed, there were always some black kids playing at the subway exit...but twenty years later, only "bobo" white couples. The others moved out I suppose. In the end, not automatically something good.
These people are secondary school students in France. Does the caption in the upper-right corner say "Cast out the whites"?
ELK1xiSWoAA3E-q


Sweden started sending Christian converts back to their countries (in French):

Something more in French. The police detained three criminals in Montpellier. They stated they were unaccompanied children. One of them turned out to be 35 years old. Typical:
 

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