Excellent and concise analysis of the recent US-Israel diplomatic rift:
Google English translation:
So why is Netanyahu turning up the volume in front of Biden?
A moment of calculation: to win the presidency in the United States you need 270 electors. The Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, leads by a promising margin in 235 states. In the previous round against Biden, in 2020 he was defeated by a small margin in Georgia (16 electors) and Arizona (11), states that were considered Republican strongholds until then. But since then, there has been a turnaround in both: quite a few Republican voters have migrated to Georgia, which is liberal on corona matters. Whereas in Arizona, which borders Mexico, the number one issue is criticism of the administration's permissive immigration policy. In both polls, the camp of the former president is strong. That currently brings him to 262, and with three swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Currently, Biden has all three. One is enough for Trump.
Even a thousand repetitions of that story with Golda and the fact that there is nowhere to go will not change the simple, decisive fact that Biden probably has no future without Michigan, which has the Palestinian-American community, from the Hamas sympathizer. For him this is not a sufficient condition, but it appears to be a necessary condition. For them, stopping the war is the number one consideration.On the other hand, the event is more complex: American centrist voters support a significant majority of Israel and, according to the Harvard-Harris poll, the action in Rafah. But for most of them it is the number ten most important issue. Most of them, but not all: a small but significant evangelical public disapproves of Trump but may come to the polls if they get the impression that Biden is tying the hands of the Jewish state.And in short, Biden's dilemma is this: how to appease the pro-Palestinian Muslims without upsetting the pro-Israeli Christians? The White House has been conducting a briefing in recent days with the aim of separating support for Israel from opposition to Netanyahu. It is also possible to propose a less elegant wording - Biden wants to keep the confrontation with Israel below the threshold of war: enough public blows to mobilize the base, but not an all-out confrontation that will seriously damage him in the general American public. The conduct around Rafih is an excellent example. The Americans will pile up difficulties, ask questions, demand explanations, but in Israel they swear they won't be able to put up a "stop" sign. An Israeli senior official said: At the moment of truth, against their noses and anger, we will act swiftly.
Those who analyze the situation with diplomatic glasses only, or worse: psychological ones, are ridiculous. Those who claim that Netanyahu insulted Biden or that this has to do with his "conduct", as if anyone in an election year even bothers to be interested in table manners. The Wall Street Journal defined it nicely this week: the president is interested in the two-state solution: Michigan and Nevada.
m.jpost.com
cdrsalamander.substack.com
