Mil News Current Iran/Iraq/US Tensions and Actions Unfolding

[Flagg]

But as a matter of proof,even the vaunted IDF has shown that it is easy to lose a culture of war for ground forces and it is time, money and energy consuming to recover it. So it is not so much a matter of culture rather than a matter of doctrine.


There is one army that is well rated, yet the soldiers and officers are arabs (I am speaking about Jordan). The difference with KSA idiots is that officers are not or less selected by nepotism, regular soldiers are not regarded as 3d tier citizens and the elite force of the kingdom is not a client tribe ala KSA National Guard.

To the former, I think it is a hybrid mix of culture and flexible doctrine that gets Israel thru it.

Programs like Talpiot are the new fighter pilot aspirations.

Agility(proactively/reactively responding to adveraries)
Velocity(speed of adapting to and disrupting adversaries)
Innovation(unfair advantage in people, processes, platforms)

——-

To the latter, I met a few higher speed Jordanians recently. They seemed ok at first pass, but their one minder was genuinely impressive.

An article was written a few years back at Small Wars Journal about forcing square Arab pegs into round US/UK/Soviet combined arms doctrinal holes, and how it rarely works.

For both former/latter, unconventional warfare is likely to be front and centre for the foreseeable future.

Israel needs to adapt more/faster to the unconventional fight since it is regionally unequalled in the conventional fight and it’s adversaries have largely given up any real possibility of a conventional fight.

Arab countries might benefit from shifting towards more of an unconventional/political warfare & population centric Hez/IRGC like org model backed by some conventional combined arms capability.

Who knows.

 

[Junglejim]

From what I am seeing, the Iranians are not over playing anything , even going as far as denying... so it seems they are happy sending weapons to the Houthis and letting the Houthis do what they will with it. If this is the case, then Iran is using the Houthis as a learning tool on how to attack targets with minimum capabilities. This would be developed into a doctrine and the next level would probably trying it out on Israeli installations care of the Hezzies.

 

[Flagg]

From what I am seeing, the Iranians are not over playing anything , even going as far as denying... so it seems they are happy sending weapons to the Houthis and letting the Houthis do what they will with it. If this is the case, then Iran is using the Houthis as a learning tool on how to attack targets with minimum capabilities. This would be developed into a doctrine and the next level would probably trying it out on Israeli installations care of the Hezzies.

I agree...partially......but:

Those drones/missiles launching from Yemen by Houthi seems quite questionable.

Detailed appreciation & planning issues, open terrain and detection issues, terminal guidance issues, etc.

I’d love to see a composite of Saudi sensor detection overlays. A bit like the UAE/Dubai composite CCTV footage of the Mossad targeted killing.

——-

As far as Israeli goes, it would be a far harder target than Saudi due to:

Much smaller area, frontier border, and axis of attack to ensure better density of overlapping sensor coverage and enhance detection likelihood.

I strongly suspect Talpiot, and others, are working hard to keep enhancing counter-drone tech capability

 

[IDF_TANKER]

I agree...partially......but:

Those drones/missiles launching from Yemen by Houthi seems quite questionable.

Detailed appreciation & planning issues, open terrain and detection issues, terminal guidance issues, etc.

I’d love to see a composite of Saudi sensor detection overlays. A bit like the UAE/Dubai composite CCTV footage of the Mossad targeted killing.

——-

As far as Israeli goes, it would be a far harder target than Saudi due to:

Much smaller area, frontier border, and axis of attack to ensure better density of overlapping sensor coverage and enhance detection likelihood.

I strongly suspect Talpiot, and others, are working hard to keep enhancing counter-drone tech capability

I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Talpiot - this is a cadre training unit, not a stand-alone R&D department. You are probably thinking of something like MAFAT.

 

[Chazman]

This.
It is also possible that by standard Iranian modus operandi, after a rise in tension, there is a time to defuse things. IRI has always proceeded this way.
The message being passed over ie we can hurt you, so now,let s discuss seriously

Iran is trying to destabilize oil markets and create panic with it's antics, so there is pressure to remove sanctions. It's their only move and it's not working.

 

[Mordoror]

Iran is trying to destabilize oil markets and create panic with it's antics, so there is pressure to remove sanctions. It's their only move and it's not working.

That's your way to read it, not mine. If they really wanted to destabilize oil markets, they would have a bunch of other options more efficient and more deniable (like mining the Ormuz straight).
It is a demonstration of power and know how as well as a demonstration of vulnerability of KSA.
And it has worked, the saoudi camel fuckers are screaming for help since the day of the event...

 

[Chazman]

That's your way to read it, not mine. If they really wanted to destabilize oil markets, they would have a bunch of other options more efficient and more deniable (like mining the Ormuz straight).
It is a demonstration of power and know how as well as a demonstration of vulnerability of KSA.
And it has worked, the saoudi camel fuckers are screaming for help since the day of the event...

And yet, no sanction relief for the Iranians. The Iranian economy is crumbling, time is not on their side. I agree that it is a demonstration of vulnerability of KSA. Iran was able to take 5% of world oil production off line for a couple of weeks, yet still no relief from the sanctions.

 

[Mordoror]

And yet, no sanction relief for the Iranians. The Iranian economy is crumbling, time is not on their side. I agree that it is a demonstration of vulnerability of KSA. Iran was able to take 5% of world oil production off line for a couple of weeks, yet still no relief from the sanctions.

I don't think they expected santion relief. Their economy is indeed crumbling but they are still playing the Game. But i agree that they are also showing symptoms of impatience. Yet they also got what they wanted : China, Russia, EU are calling for discussions, UAE has sent (discretely) a negociation team to Teheran.
Let's see how it unfolds

 

[BCNTM]

Iran is trying to destabilize oil markets and create panic with it's antics, so there is pressure to remove sanctions. It's their only move and it's not working.

that's why the US built a very large strategic reserve over the years ?

 

[Flagg]

I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Talpiot - this is a cadre training unit, not a stand-alone R&D department. You are probably thinking of something like MAFAT.

I mention Talpiot because program graduates act as the IDF’s lead scouts for extending existing military capability/capacity.

 

[Flagg]

And yet, no sanction relief for the Iranians. The Iranian economy is crumbling, time is not on their side. I agree that it is a demonstration of vulnerability of KSA. Iran was able to take 5% of world oil production off line for a couple of weeks, yet still no relief from the sanctions.

It’s probably worth looking at Zimbabwe and Venezuela to see two other authoritarian nations that have suffered from and survived sanctions.

Iran likely has the same capacity to survive, and still has a lot more fat on the bone to live off of than either Zimbabwe/Venezuela.

Iran fits quite nicely into China’s One Belt, One Road initiative. It’s a win/win for China/Iran.

 

[Chazman]

Surviving is far different than thriving.

Although China is an opportunistic predator, I don't believe they want to get involved with anything being perceived as intervention between Iran and and Saudi Arabia.

 

[Flagg]

Surviving is far different than thriving.

Although China is an opportunistic predator, I don't believe they want to get involved with anything being perceived as intervention between Iran and and Saudi Arabia.

China was the place Chiwenga visited days before he helped lead the coup against 50 year Chinese ally Mugabe.

It doesn’t require intervention in China’s part, but top cover and discrete support.

If(more like when) MBS/Saudi regime falls.....Iran gaining influence in Shia dominant oil rich eastern provinces may not be too hard.

Look at Iraq.

 

[Junglejim]

Iran has survived Western sanctions longer than Zimbabwe and Venezuela and has so far faired better than the two. Dont write off that nation just yet. The two thinking nations in that theater are Iran and Israel, had those two been allies imagine what the ME would be right now in terms of accomplishments, sadly that would never happen in our time frame.

 

[Mordoror]

Good read about vulnerability of air defences
BTW for those asking, the article is speaking about 7 cruise missiles and 18 triangular drones

Opinion | Why U.S. Patriot missiles failed to stop the attack on Saudi oil sites

The U.S. is having trouble defending against low-flying drones and cruise missiles after years of the Pentagon focusing on longer-range threats.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[BravoZulu]

Saudi Arabia looks to mobilise foreign militaries against Iran
Saudi Arabia hosted the military chiefs of staff from the five other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and several friendly countries on 21 October to talk about how to defend the region from Iranian aggression, the Saudi Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on the same day.

"Today's meeting is to find the most appropriate ways to provide joint military capabilities that, God willing, protect vital and sensitive facilities as the region continues to suffer ongoing crises since the arrival of the Iranian revolutionary regime," the MoD quoted Saudi Chief of the General Staff General Fayyad bin Hamed al-Ruwaili as saying.

The MoD said the conference was attended by Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Jordan, the Netherlands, Pakistan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It released photographs showing that at least some of the representatives were senior - but not the top - officers from their countries.

US Central Command's (CENTCOM's) General Kenneth McKenzie was present, as was Lieutenant General Seong-yong Lee, head of strategic planning for the South Korean military, and Lieutenant General Luciano Portolano, commander of the Italian Military's Joint Operations Headquarters Command.

The officers were shown the remnants of the missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles used against Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities on 14 September.
https://www.janes.com/article/92107/saudi-arabia-looks-to-mobilise-foreign-militaries-against-iran

 

[Chazman]

U.S. Commander Warns of Iranian Attack in Middle East

 

[Jake84]

The recent protests against the Ayatollahs have been heavily repressed and very very few videos and infos have emerged. Internet shutdown...

Some were chanting « Death to the Supreme Leader », total chaos and mayhem in the streets and the protests had spread to many cities and towns.

Amnisty International has mentioned hundred dead, worst protests in Iran in over two years.

Look at Iraq, Lebanon only to mention about the ME. People throughout the World are protesting for more or less valid reasons. Often for different reasons too. Iraq isn’t Chile and Chile isn’t France.

Enough corrupt politicians, enough rise on fuel, gas and taxes... a tiny minority of billionaires rules the world and when the Middle-Class are slowly but surely turning into the poorer ones, don’t be surprised people burn and set ablaze stuffs.

 

[BravoZulu]

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[Chazman]

That's despicable.