Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a global crisis. Putin could not let Ukraine chart its own political path or accept an independent Ukrainian identity. The invasion thus is not only about one country attacking another. It is about undermining the post–World War II liberal global order in favour of one in which great powers hold imperial spheres of influence. This war, the largest in Europe since World War II, has also resulted in a worldwide economic slowdown that is unlikely to abate. The war is far from over.

Yes, Ukrainian forces have major successes in recent months, including the counteroffensive around Kharkiv and Russia’s forced withdrawal from the city of Kherson. Russia’s military overall has performed worse in the war than Western military analysts had anticipated. Some analysts also underestimated Ukrainians and their will to fight. But Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses. According to the latest US estimates, approximately 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured since the start of Russia’s invasion.

More to the point, Ukraine remains reliant on Western military and economic aid, the bulk of which comes from the United States. Ukraine cannot sustain itself without this aid, and Putin knows that. He remains committed to a war-of-attrition strategy and the long game of breaking Western unity on Ukraine, and to years of fighting with his neighbour. Last month, Putin signed a decree to establish a centralised electronic database of information related to Russian citizens’ military registration that is set to open on 1 April 2024. This example shows that he is thinking in years, not months. Conversely, while there’s evidence that Ukraine’s Western allies are reaching a point of fatigue regarding their own military stocks and what they are willing to transfer, they have not energised their industrial bases to offset this reality. Putin is also aware of this fact.

Recent polls indicate that the majority of Americans continue to support aid to Ukraine. But internal congressional disagreements, both from a minority of Republicans who seek to reduce aid to Ukraine and from Democrats who are calling for diplomatic engagement with Russia, suggest that next year’s approval process for US government aid to Ukraine will be difficult. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s energy sector is reportedly close to collapse as a result of Russia’s latest bombing campaign using Iranian-made drones and Russian missiles, and the spectre of what a cold winter might bring has already arrived.

Only Russia’s decisive loss on the battlefield will bring this conflict to a complete end. All wars are ultimately settled through diplomacy, but unless Russia undergoes a process of fundamental internal reckoning with itself, Russia’s elites will not let go of their imperial impetus to control Ukraine that originates in the very founding of the Russian state around 500 years ago with the military campaigns of Ivan III, the autocratic ruler of the Grand Dutchy of Muscovy. Indeed, the current war against Ukraine is not simply Putin’s war, even as he bears the bulk of responsibility for waging it.

Historically, countries that faced a reckoning with themselves only did so after a complete military defeat, such as Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. If a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine occurs before the Russian military is defeated, that will only doom Ukraine to face another Russian attack years later, after the Russian military has had time to regain its strength.

Russia has certainly lost wars in the past, such as the Crimean War of 1853–1856 and the Russo-Japanese war of 1904–05, and those losses prompted internal reforms. But the losses were not substantial enough to prompt a fundamental re-evaluation of Russian decision-makers’ core beliefs. Instead, the Russian state built a myth of victory on the ashes of these defeats, like a dark phoenix rising out of the ashes.

The scale of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is far greater than anything the Russian state faced in Crimea or with Japan—wars that did not hold global implications. True, Russia unlike Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan has nuclear weapons—and never fails to remind the world about them—but the Ukrainians for their part remain committed to fighting, even as they would be the primary target of a nuclear strike. It would of course be irresponsible to dismiss Russia’s nuclear threats, but the chances that Putin will use them at the time of this writing remain low, and giving in to blackmail carries its own repercussions.

Russia is not impossible to defeat, and nor are the Russian people incapable of change. But free liberal nations need to remain committed to the long game of helping Ukraine win. To be sure, the West is not abandoning Ukraine. Yet it hasn’t sent a clear message that it aims to permanently change Putin’s strategic calculus. And while the war has seemingly prompted leaders of liberal nations to re-evaluate their core assumptions about Russia, it’s unclear if they internalised the costs of years of Russia’s unresolved conflict with Ukraine and the full implications of the post–World War II global order. This means that all liberal nations have to look beyond their national interests to the bigger picture. Indeed, the same self-deterrence of liberal nations that has empowered Putin in the past two decades will empower China’s Xi Jinping. on the battlefield will end the Ukraine war
France is set to become the first Western country to deliver tanks to Ukraine, the French presidency announced Wednesday after talks between Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

The move to supply the French-made AMX-10 RC to Ukraine -- a light tank model in service since the 1980s that is being phased out in the French military -- represents a significant shift in French military support for Ukraine.

Paris has already delivered state-of-the-art artillery, armoured personnel carriers, anti-aircraft missiles and air-defence systems to Ukraine, but Macron has long been wary of antagonising Russia and breaking off diplomatic contact with Vladimir Putin.
"The president wanted to increase... aid" to Ukraine "by accepting to deliver AMX-10 RC light tanks", an aide to the French leader told reporters on condition of anonymity after the call between Macron and Zelensky.

"It is the first time that Western-designed tanks are supplied to the Ukrainian armed forces," he said.
NATO allies have gradually ramped up their military support to Ukraine since February last year, delivering increasingly sophisticated weapons systems while also publicly worrying about the risk of escalating the conflict with Moscow.

Transfers of fighter jets, long-range missiles and tanks have long been viewed as potentially provocative, risking a more direct confrontation between Russia and the West.

It was not immediately clear how many of the French tanks would be dispatched or when they would be delivered, though training and maintenance has been agreed as part of the deal.

The French defence ministry said the countries' defence ministers would soon hold talks.

The AMX-10 RC tanks are light and six-wheeled, rather than on tracks.
They were designed for reconnaissance missions and have been deployed in France's most recent overseas military operations in the Sahel region of West Africa and in Afghanistan.

They are "very mobile... perhaps old but high-performance", a French official said.
The Ukrainian army received Canadian LAV II CSV Super Bison armored personnel carriers, previously 39 units were received from Canada. The LAV II CSV Super Bison armored vehicles are based on the LAV 6.0 wheeled armored personnel carrier and are the newest in the Canadian Army, their production began in 2020. The vehicle is used as a command post and for the transport of infantry and cargo. The troop compartment of the armored vehicle can accommodate up to 7 military personnel. LAV II Super Bison has modern digital systems, powerful optics and a thermal imager. The armored car is equipped with a 450-horsepower diesel engine, working with an automatic 7-speed gearbox. The declared maximum speed is 100 km/h. Crew of 3 people. The approximate price of LAV II CSV Super Bison is about $5 million.

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An episode of the work of Ukrainian operators of the anti-aircraft self-propelled gun Gepard.

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French leader Emmanuel Macron promised to provide Ukraine with AMX-10 RC wheeled tanks. The French love to create unusual vehicles, this can be seen even in the example of French vehicles in any computer game. The French reconnaissance armored car AMX-10 RC was no exception. Often classified also as a wheeled tank, the AMX-10 RC reconnaissance vehicle began production in 1974 and is now being retired and replaced by other armored vehicles. The AMX-10 RC's aluminum armor protects it from small arms fire and shell fragments. In 2010, the car was upgraded to the AMX-10RCR level. To control the shooting, the vehicle is equipped with modern types of devices - a laser rangefinder and an electronic ballistic computer. The reconnaissance vehicle was designed to be floating. The machine was used in Operation Desert Storm, showing high performance and maneuverability there. The weak side of the car is booking. The armament of the AMX-10 RC is a 105 mm cannon, a 7.62 mm machine gun works in a pair with a cannon. In 1994, the production of machines was discontinued. The engine power of the car is 280 hp, the cruising range is up to 1000 kilometers, the speed is up to 85 km/h. The crew of the car is 4 people.

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Armenia will not host Russian-led military exercises this year, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Tuesday, signaling growing frustration with Moscow.

Pashinyan's announcement came after the leader of the ex-Soviet republic criticized Moscow and the work of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus, which has been plagued for decades by fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Speaking to reporters, Pashinyan said he saw no reason for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to stage military drills in Armenia this year.

"These exercises will not take place," he told reporters.

"Armenia does not believe it is expedient to conduct CSTO exercises in the republic this year."

Analysts say Russia — distracted by its protracted war in Ukraine — is losing influence in the Southern Caucasus after decades of playing the role of power broker.

Pashinyan noted the organization had refused to condemn Azerbaijan, which fought a six-week war with Armenia for control of the majority-Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.

The conflict claimed more than 6,500 lives and ended with a Russian-brokered truce that saw Yerevan cede territories it had controlled for decades and Moscow send peacekeepers to Karabakh.

Turkey, Azerbaijan's main weapons supplier, backed Baku in the conflict.

Despite the end of the large-scale fighting, tensions over their borders persist.
Details about the American M2 Bradley armored vehicle supplied to the Ukrainian army. The United States has decided to approve the delivery of 50 M2A2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. Most likely, a modification of the M2A2 produced in 1988 will come, of which there are quite a lot in storage. The armored vehicle is quite heavy, its weight is 33 tons, and it has a hinged additional armor, which can be reinforced with dynamic protection units. The frontal part and sides of the hull are reinforced with steel sheets - screens 30-32 mm thick. Expert ratings for this car vary, from good to bad. The only rival to the Bradley armored vehicle, according to experts, is the Russian BMP-3. The main gun "Bradley" stabilized in two planes 25 mm. gun M242 with two-ribbon power. The Bradley armored vehicle is equipped with two TOW-2 anti-tank systems and an M240C machine gun with a caliber of 7.62 mm. According to the US, it was Bradley anti-tank missiles that destroyed more tanks in Iraq than Abrams. The layout of the M2 Bradley is classic for an infantry fighting vehicle: the engine is in the bow, followed by the fighting compartment with a turret, and the troop compartment is in the stern. The crew of the car is 3 people and 6 landing people. The maximum speed is 61 km / h, the cruising range is 400 kilometers. Price M2 Bradley 1.5 to 3 million dollars.

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Ukraine received collapsible 105mm howitzers OTO Melara M56. The Ukrainian army began to use 105mm howitzers OTO Melara Mod 56 made in Italy. The 105mm OTO Melara M56 gun appeared in the 1950s to meet the requirements for a modern light howitzer that could be used by the Italian Army. The features of the howitzer are small dimensions and weight, suitability for parachute landing and transportation on pack animals. The howitzer is disassembled into 12 parts, the heaviest part of the howitzer weighs 122 kilograms. Howitzer disassembly takes 3 minutes, assembly - 4 minutes. The howitzer is popular all over the world and has been in service with 30 countries; since 2003, howitzers have been sent for storage. The firing range of the howitzer reaches 10 km. Rate of fire - up to 10 shots per minute. The calculation of the gun is seven people, weight 1,290 kg.

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Footage of work at the training ground of the Belarusian reconnaissance and patrol vehicle "Caiman" has been published. The armored vehicle was developed in 2015 by Olga Petrova, chief designer of the 140th repair plant in the city of Borisov. The 8-ton armored car "Caiman" is designed to be reliable and maintainable. An armored car with minor combat damage can be repaired directly in the field by the crew. Armor, fifth class, holds the impact of armor-piercing incendiary bullets fired from an SVD sniper rifle. The bottom of the machine is made partially V-shaped, which provides it with mine protection. In the frontal part, the protection of the "Caiman" is higher than that of the BTR-80. Cameras are installed in front and behind the Cayman BRDM, which give the driver a good overview. As weapons, an armored car can have 7.62-mm or 12.7-mm machine guns, or a 30-mm AGS-17 grenade launcher. It was reported that it was also possible to install the Adunok combat module with an automatic 30mm 2A42 cannon. Other modifications were created on the basis of the armored vehicle. The D-245 engine with a power of up to 130 hp allows you to accelerate the car to 110 km / h, the cruising range of the car is 1000 km. Crew 6 people.

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Ukraine will receive Bofors L70 automatic anti-aircraft guns from Lithuania. The development of the Bofors L70 began in the 1930s in Sweden by the Bofors company, they went into production in 1951. The 40mm Bofors L/70 towed anti-aircraft gun is based on the Bofors L60 gun. The guns were actively used in local conflicts of the Cold War. It is assumed that the guns were transferred to fight UAVs, including Geran drones. The rate of fire of the gun is 240 rounds per minute; range - up to 12 km, effective range 3 km. Calculation of the installation of 7 people. On the basis of this gun, a number of shipborne and self-propelled anti-aircraft systems of the sixties were created.

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Poland announced about the supply of about 10 German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, most likely an early version of the Leopard 2A4 tanks will be delivered, a modification of the Leopard 2A5 tank, most likely Poland will leave for its army. The German Leopard 2A4 is the most massive version of the tank, about 2500 of them have been built since 1985, since 2000 Germany began to sell them. The Leopard 2A4 is equipped with an accurate 120 mm L44 smoothbore gun, the gun is manually reloaded by the loader. Aiming range of the gun: in a static position - 3500 meters. The tank is protected by three-layer combined armor. The Leopard 2 saw action in Afghanistan and performed well as an infantry support vehicle. In the fighting of Turkey in Syria, on the first day of fighting, 10 out of 30 tanks were lost. Tanks were hit on the sides of the tanks by American TOW-2 anti-tank systems, Russian anti-tank systems and RPG-7 grenade launchers. It is worth noting that this happened due to the wrong tactics of using tanks. Despite this, do not underestimate the car, the tank is popular all over the world and is in service with 18 countries. Competitors to the German tank, later versions of the T-72B, T-90 tanks of different versions, this is a superficial comparison. The Leopard 2 is equipped with a 1500 hp engine capable of propelling a 56 ton tank up to 60 km/h over rough terrain. The crew of the tank is 4 people.

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The first footage of the use of French 155-mm howitzers TRF1 by the Ukrainian army has appeared. The howitzers were not supplied free of charge, they were purchased by the Ukrainian army. The TRF1 howitzer was first introduced in 1979 and has now been withdrawn from service. The TRF1 is a 155mm self-propelled howitzer. Over long distances, the gun is transported by a tractor, and it can move across the battlefield using its own power plant at a speed of 8 km/h. During operation, various technical difficulties arose with howitzers, this determined their fate and the French army began to replace them with Caesar self-propelled guns. In terms of their fire capabilities, the TRF1 howitzers are similar to the German-Italian FH70, which were previously transferred to Ukraine, we talked about them. The firing range of the gun is 24 km with conventional projectiles and 30 km with active-rocket projectiles. Rate of fire 6 rounds per minute. Calculation of tools 8 people.

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Poland will send an additional 60 tanks to Ukraine on top of the 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks it has already pledged, the Polish prime minister said in an interview with Canadian television on Thursday.

Warsaw, which has positioned itself as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies, had pressed hard for Germany to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and to allow other countries to do so as well, a demand which Berlin agreed to on Wednesday.

“Poland sent 250 tanks as the first country half a year ago or even more than that,” Mateusz Morawiecki told CTV News.

In April last year, two months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Poland said it had sent tanks to help Kyiv fend off the assault.

“Right now, we are ready to send 60 of our modernised tanks, 30 of them PT-91. And on top of those tanks, 14 tanks, Leopard 2 tanks, from in our possession.”

The PT-91 is a Polish-made battle tank that came into service in the 1990s. It was developed from the Soviet-era T-72 range.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked Poland on Twitter for the decision to supply the additional tanks. “Together we will win!”, he wrote.

Canada on Thursday announced that it would send four Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Norway has also said it will send Leopards while Spain said it was open to providing them.

Ukraine has said it needs hundreds of the Leopards to drive Russia from its territory.

On Friday, Polish Deputy Defence Minister Marcin Ociepa told private broadcaster RMF FM that it would be around three months before Leopard tanks reached Ukraine.

“It depends what country we are talking about, but I would estimate that we are talking about around a quarter… until those tanks can really be on Ukrainian territory and go into battle,” he said. send an,with Canadian television on Thursday.
Ukraine received British Westland Sea King HAR.5 helicopters. Multi-purpose helicopter Westland Sea King, is a modification of the American Sikorsky S-61 / SH-3, Sea King was developed in 1967. Sea King helicopters were built until the mid-nineties, as they were in operation, the helicopters were gradually decommissioned. By mid-2010, the British Armed Forces decided to abandon them. In 2015, the Sea King search and rescue helicopter was withdrawn from service. The cargo-passenger version of the helicopter can accommodate 25 seated passengers or up to 9 victims on a stretcher. For self-defense, the Sea King helicopter was equipped with a 7.62 mm machine gun. The helicopter can reach speeds of over 210 km/h. and has a range of 1200 km.

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The UK will transfer Challenger-2 tanks to Ukraine, delivery of 14 vehicles is expected. The Challenger 2 tank entered service with the UK in 1995, and now there are about 220 of them. The tank is equipped with powerful multi-layer armor "Dorchester", in the fighting in Iraq, when one of the tanks got stuck, the armor withstood 15 hits from RPG-7 anti-tank grenade launchers. The reinforced armor of the tank affected its weight, and it is simply colossal, from the base 63 tons it can reach 75 with all the protective elements. Naturally, this affected the patency of the tank not for the better, in addition, in the event of a breakdown, the tank would be problematic to evacuate. The Challenger 2 has a rifled 120 mm cannon, in 2002 NATO tested tanks for accuracy. The Leopard 2A5 tank turned out to be the most accurate gun - 78% of hits, the M1A2 Abrams and French Leclerc tanks were second - 72% of hits, the number of hits of the Challenger 2 was 69%, after that the tank's fire control system was upgraded. The tank uses manual loading of the gun, first a projectile is inserted into the gun, and then a powder charge, the rate of fire with this method of loading is about 7 rounds per minute at a distance of up to 8 km. The tank is equipped with a thermal imager, with a working distance of up to 3000 m. Engine power 1500 l. s, allows the tank to reach speeds over rough terrain up to 40 km / h. The crew of the tank is 4 people. The price of the Challenger-2 tank is 6.8 million dollars.

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California-based drone maker General Atomics has offered to send two Reaper drones to Ukraine for $1 and is waiting for the U.S. government’s approval, the company’s CEO confirmed Wednesday.
The announcement from the firm’s CEO late on Wednesday comes after months of talks between Kyiv, the Biden administration and the company over providing Ukraine with the long-duration drones operated by the U.S. Air Force. But the issue has remained in limbo due to concerns over transferring sensitive technologies to Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the latest offer, noting that Kyiv would still need to spend $10 million to physically transfer the drones and another $8 million annually for maintenance and sustainment.
The Ukrainian government had recently renewed its push for the drones, which can fly farther than 1,100 miles while carrying laser-guided munitions and advanced optics for long-range surveillance.
Despite General Atomics’ offer to transfer the two drones, “there are limits to what an American defense company can do to support a situation such as this,” CEO Linden Blue said in a statement. “From our perspective, it is long past time to enable Ukrainian forces with the information dominance required to win this war.”
Blue indicated some frustration with the refusal of the U.S. to greenlight sending the drones, which POLITICO had previously reported had already won approval from the Air Force.
“We have offered to train Ukrainian operators on these systems at no cost to U.S. taxpayers or the Ukrainian government,” Blue continued. “We have offered flexible options and recommendations for delivery. We have discussed the situation endlessly at every level of the U.S. federal government, and with many international partners.”
A spokesperson at the Pentagon did not immediately return a request for comment.
Footage of another new homemade Ukrainian hybrid MALES appeared, this time two blocks of unguided aircraft missiles were installed on the BMP chassis. Rockets are launched from a remote control.

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