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[Mike1976]

Czech weapons conglomerate a mirage?

CSG: Why the Largest Military IPO in European History Is Combusting

Hunterbrook on CSG

hntrbrk.com

 

[Mike1976]

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After countless claims that "Russia is running out of *whatever*", now comes the turn of "the US are running of Tomahawks".

Because, of course, the US would run out of that ( ) and of course Merz would be in the know with regards to the status of the US stockpiles ( ).

But I guess one has to tow the "the US are being humiliated by Iran", hum?

I'd say he is referring to the previously planned deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Germany which seems to be cancelled. But what do i know..keep ranting.

Europeans (Germany especially) want the US to deploy a Typhon unit as an interim for acquiring their own long range fires in the "longer-term".

Problem is Trump has experience with this "longer-term" which has been to wait until he's out of office so Europe doesn't actually have to do anything and can continue to lecture bravely from behind the US manned and paid for shield.

The trickery was tolerated to an extent during his first term. This time around it's "Pay up and show up or shut up".

Want US protection? Put your money where your mouth is and sign actual contracts for long range fires instead of endless talk about how you're going to ... some day, probably, maybe.

Germany don't want to rely on US politics or slow EU development? There's South-Korea or Israel. There are options, but willingness rather than excuses?

Confusion Surrounds Future Of U.S. Long-Range Missiles In Germany Amid Rift With White House

The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term. The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term.

www.twz.com

 

[muck]

An even more striking development is that for a year now, Germany has yet to receive any reaction on Berlin's foreign-military-sales request to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles. It is assumed that the Trump administration will refuse to sell them.

Germany don't want to rely on US politics or slow EU development? There's South-Korea or Israel. There are options, but willingness rather than excuses?

As to the consequences:

After speaking to people that were more informed on the matter than I am, I can say that Germany is no longer considering the adoption of Typhon as a guaranteed thing, with other deep-strike options like land-launched variants of the French MdCN, Taurus NEO and 3SM being considered. (Source)

And on the subject of reliance: Rheinmetall revealed on April 28 that it alone already outproduces the entire output of the American arms industry in terms of land system munitions. The most striking disparity comes in the category of artillery munitions, where Rheinmetall produced 1.1 million 155 mm shells in 2025, compared to 480,000 produced throughout the United States. (Source)

Once again, Donald Trump proves his inability to think further than the reaches of his ego. He pushed NATO countries (and rightfully so) to increase their defence spending, expecting the American arms industry to benefit. But with his casting doubt on America's commitment to NATO, and his withholding sales to key costumers, he creates a massive disadvantage for his arms industry.

Germany is now not only NATO's top military spender after the United States itself in total terms; it was also the only European country mindful of maintaining a degree of reciprocity in terms of buying armaments from America. That attitude is now gone.

America's strongest selling point (technological superiority in the aviation and guided missiles sector) is going to fade away in the shadow of Washington's growing unreliability and unpredictability. All of a sudden, expenditures long shunned ("we could buy it from America") start to make sense. If this trend continues, the US will find itself in a similar position as Switzerland, the arms sector of which is going to implode.

 

[Mike1976]

An even more striking development is that for a year now, Germany has yet to receive any reaction on Berlin's foreign-military-sales request to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles. It is assumed that the Trump administration will refuse to sell them.

As to the consequences:

And on the subject of reliance: Rheinmetall revealed on April 28 that it alone already outproduces the entire output of the American arms industry in terms of land system munitions. The most striking disparity comes in the category of artillery munitions, where Rheinmetall produced 1.1 million 155 mm shells in 2025, compared to 480,000 produced throughout the United States. (Source)

Once again, Donald Trump proves his inability to think further than the reaches of his ego. He pushed NATO countries (and rightfully so) to increase their defence spending, expecting the American arms industry to benefit. But with his casting doubt on America's commitment to NATO, and his withholding sales to key costumers, he creates a massive disadvantage for his arms industry.

Germany is now not only NATO's top military spender after the United States itself in total terms; it was also the only European country mindful of maintaining a degree of reciprocity in terms of buying armaments from America. That attitude is now gone.

Europe is overly reliant on Rheinmetall. Like Belgium will produce their own 155mm rounds, but they'll have to compete with huge consortiums for components and the shells will be expensive due to much smaller volumes.

The US armed forces also have their own factories, a capability which European countries couldn't wait to kill off the second the Berlin Wall came down.

In February the US Army acquisition executive testified that current output is 56,000 a month. That's 672,000 a year, already considerably over the 480,000 figure which IIRC is from early 2025. Several facilities have been recently opened and aren't running yet. Manufacturing is also being set up in Poland and Taiwan.

Also the US output is under the US' control, they don't have to deal with export/import paperwork or pray the current or future German governments don't throw a hissy fit and not allow production/exports for ideological reasons (environment, disarmament, "genocide" etc).

https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-opens-new-155mm-artillery-shell-facility-in-kansas/

Army official ‘not happy’ as Mesquite facility's 155mm production lags - Breaking Defense

“I anticipate you will see an investment from the company themselves, from the industry partner themselves, to ensure they can continue to build out that facility that would make rounds that would primarily be supported by the [foreign military sales],” Army acquisition czar Brent Ingraham told...

breakingdefense.com

 

[Mike1976]

An even more striking development is that for a year now, Germany has yet to receive any reaction on Berlin's foreign-military-sales request to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles. It is assumed that the Trump administration will refuse to sell them.

Did they formally request a sale or did they signal that they may be intending to explore the possibility of a sale?

Because a lot of European countries behave like an indecisive customer at a car dealership. After someone has gotten into each seat of the car five times, looked through the engine and stowage compartments three times, gone over the specs, price and delivery multiple times I could understand if the salesmen gets an attitude of buy already or stop wasting my time.

America's strongest selling point (technological superiority in the aviation and guided missiles sector) is going to fade away in the shadow of Washington's growing unreliability and unpredictability. All of a sudden, expenditures long shunned ("we could buy it from America") start to make sense. If this trend continues, the US will find itself in a similar position as Switzerland, the arms sector of which is going to implode.

That technology takes a long time to develop, even the US spends decades in between aircraft generations. If it was that easy to do everyone would be doing it. China has been building visual knock-offs of US aircraft and "superior" missiles for years.

Go ask the Iranians how close the Chinese have gotten to US tech.

To get anything close to US missile technology will take a decade or more, and then the manufacturing has to be set up and stockpiles manufactured.

And that is how you get a target date for 2039 like Germany has. Especially if you don't want interim solutions for political reasons.

 

[madmax17]

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[muck]

Germany has announced that it's third Arrow 3 battery will be stationed Husum near the Danish border. (Source) With two other bases in Saxony and Bavaria, the system will provide coverage roughly from Trondheim to Cagliari, and from Belfast to Minsk. Further sensors beyond Germany's borders would be necessary to fully exploit the interceptor's range, rumoured to exceed 2,500 kilometres.

Nevertheless, in its current shape the system will put up an umbrella covering the entirety of Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Czechia and Poland. Lithuania and the United Kingdom (sans parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland) would be mostly covered, as would be the capital areas of France, Norway and Sweden.

As the UK is part of ESSI, I'm wondering if they'll offer integration of their early-warning radars for better coverage. Otherwise, three more Super Green Pine radars would be needed—ideally in Greece, Poland and perhaps the Scandes.

 

[PEMM]

Shelters are only meant to take in very few people for a very limited amount of time.

Anyway. If small countries are finding themselves at the receiving end of a nuke, it is safe to assume we are past a "limited exchange" scenario, and if survival is somehow achieved it will remain at an individual level. Those who, somehow, managed to go through such an ordeal will have other considerations in mind than the survival of the administrative and bureaucratic institutions.

In Finland they have them for around 70% of population. Rural areas don't have them. But it's not really expected they would be targeted. Shelters are in each apartment block, in office buildings etc. Those living in detached housing in a city would have some common shelter assigned. People are there for limited amount of time of course, these are no nuclear vaults...

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Data denial as countries refuse to share arms purchase info with Brussels

Mistrust and desire to retain control of national procurement stall European Commission’s efforts to prioritize collaborative investments.

www.politico.eu

 

[Picanha]

You can reat assured that it will be no problem for Germany to build modern long range cruise missiles.

It will also not take until 2039.

 

[Picanha]

https://www.safran-group.com/products-services/tr60-30-turbojet-engine

 

[Mike1976]

https://www.safran-group.com/products-services/tr60-30-turbojet-engine

If that has even a single bit of US technology in it the US can veto any product using it and any exports.

Everything needs to be 100% indigenous or we're still stuck where we are today.

 

[skaw]

If it has US tech and IF the US puts a veto on it (not just this but basically any product), one may ask if the US admin really wants Europe to step up and get their S**t together or just stay in the fancy elitist tupperware club and straight keep buying US tech. Whats more important?

 

[Picanha]

Mr. Trump is doing the work of autocratic dictators..

Trump puts Taiwan arms sales, Hong Kong jailed activist Lai on agenda ahead of meeting with Xi

Trump said Monday that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the imprisonment of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai would be among the issues at the summit in Beijing.

www.cnbc.com

Taiwan next.

There is no other solution than detach us from the US arms providers given this fickle easily influentiable president.

The US forbidding military sales for European arms components is a move which would strongly point towards a certain influence.

What do they want?


Sell to us? No

Sell components also no?

So we get essentially sanctioned by the US, Putin is rejoicing.


So we need to build our own forget that Trump theater show its not worth pursuing that decoy operation only helping Putin more by wasting time. Time we need to develop our own.

The Safran engine is US parts free afaik thanks to the French.

 

[Mike1976]

If it has US tech and IF the US puts a veto on it (not just this but basically any product), one may ask if the US admin really wants Europe to step up and get their S**t together or just stay in the fancy elitist tupperware club and straight keep buying US tech. Whats more important?

France is the same. Europe can rearm all it wants just as long as all of the development programs center around purely French needs and the manufacturing is done wxclusively by French companies, preferably in France.

The French have caused many multinational development programs to fail or fracture over the last 50 years out of their own pure self-interest.

But we don't talk about France in the same we as we do about the US because "we" like their president, and not Trump.

When I said "indigenous" I didn't mean Europe, I meant (in this case) Germany. Because the veto the US uses, so can and will France if the use goes against their own interests.

 

[Picanha]

I think France despite its special features, has more of an interest in European security than the Don.

Anyway the US is on the path of alienating everyone even Rasmussen wants a D7 now.

Exclusive: Kawasaki in talks to develop Taurus missile engines, sources say

Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries is in talks to co-develop new engines for Germany's Taurus cruise missiles, two sources familiar with the matter said, another potentially significant step in Tokyo's retreat from decades of pacifism.

www.reuters.com

The US has never ever been so untrustworthy yes even hostile towards its allies.

 

[Mike1976]

I think France despite its special features, has more of an interest in European security than the Don.

Anyway the US is on the path of alienating everyone even Rasmussen wants a D7 now.

Exclusive: Kawasaki in talks to develop Taurus missile engines, sources say

Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries is in talks to co-develop new engines for Germany's Taurus cruise missiles, two sources familiar with the matter said, another potentially significant step in Tokyo's retreat from decades of pacifism.

www.reuters.com

The US has never ever been so untrustworthy yes even hostile towards its allies.

Instead of the US holding you by the balls it'll then be the rabidly pacifist Japanese with their own interests.

And before anyone replies with "but the Japanese recently announced they're relaxing arms exports!", yes they are, for direct exports where they control where the arms exports go. For follow-on exports they'll retain their veto just like they do now. They might allow transfers during peace time, but during war time practically zero chance as it might draw them into the conflict.

Just like relying on parts from the US this is another savings of a dime now for which you'll pay a fortune later on down the line. Build it yourself and you retain autonomy. Anything else and you place your foreign policy in the hands of foreign powers who look after their own interests first.

 

[madmax17]

https://www.kielinstitut.de/publica...e-fiscally-viable-and-politically-achievable/

European defense autonomy is technologically feasible, fiscally viable, and politically achievable

The Sparta 2.0 paper identifies ten strategic capability gaps, prioritizes key programs, and puts the cost of European sovereignty in the security and defense sector at approximately €50 billion per year

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