Politics Tariffs/Trade Wars

[skaw]

Oh boy, Mr CCP. Not a good way to make friends. Call us in a month and leave a message.

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Are you serious???

 

[Chazman]

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[Chazman]

 

[Mark Sman]

Rumor: Vietnam will order a buttload of F-16s from the US.

Wouldn't the current situation make this less likely? I know it has been kicked about for a year or so.

 

[madmax17]

F-16? Not the newest model.

 

[Chazman]

Wouldn't the current situation make this less likely? I know it has been kicked about for a year or so.

Vietnam has already bought some T-6 Texans last year. Just a rumor on the F-16s.

 

[Chazman]

F-16? Not the newest model.

No idea.

 

[Junglejim]

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A simple fact check would show that their numbers are copium. An omission or two or did they forget that Cathay Pacific is also Chinese, which has a current order of 21 777-900 alone.

Cathay Pacific mulls widebody order, issues RfP - report

Cathay Pacific (CX, Hong Kong International) has issued a request for proposal (RfP) to Boeing and Airbus to supply it with widebody aircraft, Bloomberg reported...

www.ch-aviation.com

on 18 September 2024, the Company and its wholly-owned subsidiary CDB Aviation Lease Finance DAC (“CDBALF”) entered into aircraft purchase agreements with The Boeing Company (the “Seller”) for the purchase of fifty (50) 737 MAX-8 aircraft (the “Transaction”).

The Company and CDBALF expect to take delivery of the aircraft under the Transaction between 2028 and 2031.

Very Substantial Acquisition Purchase of Boeing Aircraft - CDB Aviation

CDB Aviation entered into an aircraft purchase agreement with Boeing for the purchase of fifty (50) 737 MAX-8 aircraft.

www.cdbaviation.aero

China Southern Airlines plans to receive 111 A320 series and 103 B737 series between 2023 and 2025. Although the overall numbers are not much different, if you look at the annual data, China Southern Airlines plans to receive 46 A320 series in 2025, 77% more than 26 in 2023, while the number of B737 series aircraft planned to be received in 2025 is 31, which is a downward trend compared to 37 in 2023 and 35 in 2024.

What To Expect From China Southern's 200+ Airbus & Boeing Deliveries

China Southern plans to receive 115 Airbus and 114 Boeing aircraft before 2025, bringing the total fleet size to more than 1,000 by the end of 2025.

simpleflying.com

The backlog of Boeing's delivery in China is around 130 aircraft. China did not just say "no new orders" it also said "dont accept deliveries."

This is a good watch on the impact of the tariffs on the Aviation industry.

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Now if we go with another American aircraft manufacturer:

https://www.reuters.com/article/legal/government/gulfstream-confirms-order-of-60-aircraft-from-chinas-minsheng-leasing-idUSL3N0N72HV/

 

[HorniePonie]

Interesting. It suggests companies are eating the tariffs.

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Or the price of Yuan affects the product price in USD?

 

[Junglejim]

Or the price of Yuan affects the product price in USD?

Surprisingly the answer came from a Chinese factory owner on tiktok... their American clients sell their chinese made goods at more than 100% the cost, so there is room for tariff adjustments. He created the video as he heard their clients using teh tariffs as a reason to jump the gun and increase prices further.

 

[Chazman]

 

[Chazman]

According to Goldman analyst, Noah Poponak, there are no more Chinese orders and about 25 737s built before 2023, reserved for Chinese carriers.

 

[Chazman]

Or the price of Yuan affects the product price in USD?

The tariffs are applied to the product as it leaves the factory. So 25% to a 10 dollar shoe which costs $100 retail in the US has a tariff of $2.50. The supply chain usually eats that tariff.

 

[HorniePonie]

The tariffs are applied to the product as it leaves the factory. So 25% to a 10 dollar shoe which costs $100 retail in the US has a tariff of $2.50. The supply chain usually eats that tariff.

If I buy a product from the US, it is usually charged in USD and the tariff is calculated from the USD value. If the USD-EUR value changes, the price and tariff value I pay changes, when converted to EUR.

The same applies to Yuan-USD.

 

[Chazman]

If I buy a product from the US, it is usually charged in USD and the tariff is calculated from the USD value. If the USD-EUR value changes, the price and tariff value I pay changes, when converted to EUR.

The same applies to Yuan-USD.

I understand. China has been fighting to protect the value of the Yuan. It’s dropped a bit. But if it collapses it’ll help cover US tariffs but China depends on imported food and oil so that’s a double edged sword.

 

[Junglejim]

View attachment 525154

Why did you not include the orders from 2016 and below. If we assume that the Boeing has a backlog and so does Airbus with orders taking approx. 5 years from order to delivery... then the number of Chinese Aircraft still in the pipeline of Boeing increases. That highlight between the administrations means nothing.

 

[Chazman]

Why did you not include the orders from 2016 and below. If we assume that the Boeing has a backlog and so does Airbus with orders taking approx. 5 years from order to delivery... then the number of Chinese Aircraft still in the pipeline of Boeing increases. That highlight between the administrations means nothing.

The graphic starts at 2010

 

[Junglejim]

The graphic starts at 2010

yes, I may not have been clear, what I meant was there was no need to highlight the presidential administrations. The delay in delivery are the planes that are still on the pipeline, no matter under what administration they were bought.

The problem for Boeing here is its not that easy to re allocate the planes already in the pipeline. Airbus nearly had a heart attack when Hawaiian Airlines at the last moment pulled the plug on their 10 Airbus A330 Neo order, and was just lucky that Delta bought them all. This planes are designed and finalized very specific to a clients specification. This is why say 30 737s on the line with a cancelled order, does not necessarily mean 30 737s up for grabs.

Just an example, Philippine Airlines, bought an Ex Garuda Airlines 777 to add to their 777 fleet. However, as it is based on a different airline spec, the Cabin crews and servicing needed a separate training. So if boeing is to move that 130 orders on the pipeline without China, they will be offering at discounts that would make it not so profictable.

Now you add in that Ryan Air joining in that they may have to cut Boeings orders due to the tariff and Boeing is not in a good position right now, along with its smaller suppliers.

 

[PEMM]

Interesting. It suggests companies are eating the tariffs.

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Way too early to make these kind of sweeping statements. For example previous month saw increase of .2% without any tariff business. You can also clearly see on his own chart that the pricess overall were in a trend of decline. And like mentioned, these are from March.

Import/Export Price Indexes

www.bls.gov

It would probably be an improvement if you switched to fox news from these random twitteristas.

Zero Hedge - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Yep... And the Atlantic is the problem.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

h

China now faces 245% Trump tariff

The White House said the higher tariff is as a result of Chinese retaliation.

www.newsweek.com