Warfare Russia/Ukraine War
- Thread starter morris
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somewhere all that artillery is massed just ready to receive counterbattery fire or a couple gun runs from whatever the Ukrainians got
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Seems so. Maybe the Russians have realized what they are doing so far isn't working that well and are regrouping.
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This 'slowing down', could Only be done from a position of power.
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maybe they decided to leave. I was trying to make Ukraine my new vacation destination here in a day or two, but if the Russians go home oh well.
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I've been watching the Polish video mentioned above for 1.5 hours and it was great.
The points are:
i. if NATO had not assisted Ukraine with intel and ammo, the Ukrainians would have been fvcked up by now.
ii. There are trains of ammo being delivered from Poland on a daily basis in a low-key way and some ex-WP countries assist with that as well. 122mm and 152mm shells are not accessible in any old NATO armies. It is the major thing that STILL keeps the Ukrainian Army going, as they would have run out of ammo by now.
iii. NATO shares intel with the Ukrainians, mostly in the North and Russian weak points are pin pointed. The Ukrainians know where RU air defence is inactive and use their drones and helicopters JUST there.
iv. Notice the bombardment of RU troops in Bucha where 2 mechanised companies were totally fvcked up. First that column was shelled by rocket and heavy artillery, then Mi-24s destroyed it totally. The point is clear, the Ukrainians knew where that column was, but also knew that there was not any RU air defence present there. They got this info from NATO, of course.
v. Following the previous point, the Russians don't give a sh1t about air defence despite Russian mechanised companies having embedded AA systems like the Tunguska and the Tor plus MANPADS. Nothing like that was present in Bucha and Ukrainians knew about it after the intel sharing by NATO. That's why they deployed attack helicopters.
vi. Putin ALWAYS sits VERY FAR from his generals at a table. He's afraid of being killed by his own officers/generals. That's plainly logical. Everybody can notice how far away he sits from his staff.
vii. Russian soldiers in the North and North-East have a very low morale. They are very young conscripts who don't want to die for Putin. They often abandon tanks or drive/fool around in order to waste fuel in order to surrender or deliberately drive to the mud. Nothing like that happens in the South/Donbas where the Russians are more professional and organised. So is their air defence there, that's why the Ukrainians don't attack them with drones in that area.
viii. An armoured brigade deployed in Kherson holds its ground and it was able to push the Russians back across the Dneper. They tried to cross the dam, but were stopped by Russian artillery. They cannot blow up the dam, as laying explosives would take 1 week if they were not shelled.
ix. The Ukrainians either withdraw from Mariupol and Donbas in general or they will become surrounded. No option number 3.
x. The Ukrainian troops NE of Kyiv are to be surrounded soon and the Russians are committing reserves there.
xi. If the Belarusians commit 4 brigades that are on the border, Ukraine is basically fvcked. They may seal off the Polish border, pushing to the south, and making ammo deliveries for the Ukrainians impossible. The EU can try to negotiate with Luka and give him some cookies, but it's very unlikely he will agree for that.
xii. New Ukrainian recruits will not be able to use the NATO-supplied weapons efficiently, as doing it requires a lot of training. MANPADS and Javelins are not spears.
xiii. The Russian troops are about to cut off the major highway from Kyiv to the Polish border.
xiv. Poland has already donated 6 MiG-29s to Ukraine and we will receive some alternative (better!) planes in return. Everything is financed by the EU. We are going to replace the MiGs with alternative fighters that way.
xv. Macron is pissed off at Putin, as the latter gave him a lot of sh1t. That's why he decided to deploy Rafales with subsonic missiles to the Eastern NATO flank.
xvi. The situation for Ukraine is pretty grim. The guy says, judging how well/bad some Russian troops perform based on their location, the attack on Donbass (from Crimea and SW Russia) was planned a long time ago. The attack on N and NE Ukraine is purely accidental, chaotic and unorganised. The Russians got a bloody nose, but are committing reserves and replace conscripts with contractors and pros. Also, they move troops from Kharkiv area to Kyiv.
The points are:
i. if NATO had not assisted Ukraine with intel and ammo, the Ukrainians would have been fvcked up by now.
ii. There are trains of ammo being delivered from Poland on a daily basis in a low-key way and some ex-WP countries assist with that as well. 122mm and 152mm shells are not accessible in any old NATO armies. It is the major thing that STILL keeps the Ukrainian Army going, as they would have run out of ammo by now.
iii. NATO shares intel with the Ukrainians, mostly in the North and Russian weak points are pin pointed. The Ukrainians know where RU air defence is inactive and use their drones and helicopters JUST there.
iv. Notice the bombardment of RU troops in Bucha where 2 mechanised companies were totally fvcked up. First that column was shelled by rocket and heavy artillery, then Mi-24s destroyed it totally. The point is clear, the Ukrainians knew where that column was, but also knew that there was not any RU air defence present there. They got this info from NATO, of course.
v. Following the previous point, the Russians don't give a sh1t about air defence despite Russian mechanised companies having embedded AA systems like the Tunguska and the Tor plus MANPADS. Nothing like that was present in Bucha and Ukrainians knew about it after the intel sharing by NATO. That's why they deployed attack helicopters.
vi. Putin ALWAYS sits VERY FAR from his generals at a table. He's afraid of being killed by his own officers/generals. That's plainly logical. Everybody can notice how far away he sits from his staff.
vii. Russian soldiers in the North and North-East have a very low morale. They are very young conscripts who don't want to die for Putin. They often abandon tanks or drive/fool around in order to waste fuel in order to surrender or deliberately drive to the mud. Nothing like that happens in the South/Donbas where the Russians are more professional and organised. So is their air defence there, that's why the Ukrainians don't attack them with drones in that area.
viii. An armoured brigade deployed in Kherson holds its ground and it was able to push the Russians back across the Dneper. They tried to cross the dam, but were stopped by Russian artillery. They cannot blow up the dam, as laying explosives would take 1 week if they were not shelled.
ix. The Ukrainians either withdraw from Mariupol and Donbas in general or they will become surrounded. No option number 3.
x. The Ukrainian troops NE of Kyiv are to be surrounded soon and the Russians are committing reserves there.
xi. If the Belarusians commit 4 brigades that are on the border, Ukraine is basically fvcked. They may seal off the Polish border, pushing to the south, and making ammo deliveries for the Ukrainians impossible. The EU can try to negotiate with Luka and give him some cookies, but it's very unlikely he will agree for that.
xii. New Ukrainian recruits will not be able to use the NATO-supplied weapons efficiently, as doing it requires a lot of training. MANPADS and Javelins are not spears.
xiii. The Russian troops are about to cut off the major highway from Kyiv to the Polish border.
xiv. Poland has already donated 6 MiG-29s to Ukraine and we will receive some alternative (better!) planes in return. Everything is financed by the EU. We are going to replace the MiGs with alternative fighters that way.
xv. Macron is pissed off at Putin, as the latter gave him a lot of sh1t. That's why he decided to deploy Rafales with subsonic missiles to the Eastern NATO flank.
xvi. The situation for Ukraine is pretty grim. The guy says, judging how well/bad some Russian troops perform based on their location, the attack on Donbass (from Crimea and SW Russia) was planned a long time ago. The attack on N and NE Ukraine is purely accidental, chaotic and unorganised. The Russians got a bloody nose, but are committing reserves and replace conscripts with contractors and pros. Also, they move troops from Kharkiv area to Kyiv.
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I pointed it out a long time ago. No possibility of harming the Russians with these planes. The Ukrainians have many more trained pilots than planes.Of the 44 Mig29 Poland has, only 30 are operational, and 36 are Mig29As.
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Unprecedented events.
Swiss freeze Russian assets.
Turkey closes the Bosphurus and Dardenelles, the Turkish courtship is OVER and NATO will probably get a closeup look at the S-400.
Germany votes to outspend Russia in defence outlays EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY to thunderous applause in the Bundestag.
Nuclear power back in play in Europe.
Polish differences with the EU put to rest.
EU votes to provide Ukraine with credible air assets at no cost and deliveries start immediately.
Crippling sanctions bite with immediate effect on Russia.
Massive, concerted arms shipments of all types from EU & NATO to Ukraine.
Closure of Western airspace to Russian commercial air traffic.
Networks of freelance hackers going after Russian media and government websites.
Effective and determined Ukrainian resistance and 85% of the nation remains unoccupied.
Cultural and Sports backlash isolates Russia.
And did anyone catch the body language of the participants in Putin's evening sermon?
Still, I worry what Mr. Putin might do out of desperation. He cannot undo what he has unleashed. There will be consequences, so if that is the case, why not take further steps? If this stops, it will have to be Russians who do it.
Swiss freeze Russian assets.
Turkey closes the Bosphurus and Dardenelles, the Turkish courtship is OVER and NATO will probably get a closeup look at the S-400.
Germany votes to outspend Russia in defence outlays EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY to thunderous applause in the Bundestag.
Nuclear power back in play in Europe.
Polish differences with the EU put to rest.
EU votes to provide Ukraine with credible air assets at no cost and deliveries start immediately.
Crippling sanctions bite with immediate effect on Russia.
Massive, concerted arms shipments of all types from EU & NATO to Ukraine.
Closure of Western airspace to Russian commercial air traffic.
Networks of freelance hackers going after Russian media and government websites.
Effective and determined Ukrainian resistance and 85% of the nation remains unoccupied.
Cultural and Sports backlash isolates Russia.
And did anyone catch the body language of the participants in Putin's evening sermon?
Still, I worry what Mr. Putin might do out of desperation. He cannot undo what he has unleashed. There will be consequences, so if that is the case, why not take further steps? If this stops, it will have to be Russians who do it.
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Does it matter that much if these planes can't stand up to modern Russian aircraft or AD when NATO is telling them where the gaps in the AD system are? Less so imo.
The Russians have been involving the use of tactical nukes in some of their latest exercises. Due to Putin's statements regarding nukes it has been theorized that he might consider using them to get the Ukrainians to surrender. Not saying this might happen or anything, but as it's apparently part of Russian doctrine I did some searching and came upon the following:
"Clinton also declares "that the United States intends to provide or support immediate assistance, in accordance with the United Nations Charter, to any NPT non-nuclear weapon state threatened with aggression involving nuclear weapons or which is the victim of such aggression," according to a State Department fact sheet on the declaration."
Yes this was during the Clinton administration, quite some time ago, but I haven't found any sign of the policy having been reversed since. This decision was made at the exact time that Ukraine signed the NPT, I can't help but feel the two are connected seeing as the NPT had already existed for decades at that point without this policy. It looks to me like the US considers the use of any nuclear weapon against a non-nuclear weapon state a cassus belli.
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