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Ukraine negotiations stagnate: Russian army apparently preparing summer offensive
Russia is showing restraint in peace negotiations, but is apparently planning a summer offensive on the Donbass in the background.
Moscow - Moscow is continuing to play for time in the negotiations over a ceasefire in the Ukraine war: at a meeting of Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Istanbul last week, the Kremlin stuck to its maximum demands. While diplomatic efforts are therefore stalling, Russia is apparently preparing a military offensive. Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to use this to increase the pressure on Kiev to negotiate.
Why the spring offensive was not an offensive - and what Russia is planning with a summer offensive
From a military point of view, the Russian army has long been on the offensive. This has been going on “at least since the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024”, emphasizes former NATO General Erhard Bühler in his podcast “What to do, General?”. One of the reasons for the offensive was the “months-long interruptions in support for Ukraine, because the US Congress was unable to agree on the continuation of aid deliveries to Ukraine from fall 2023 to around April 2024.”
The Ukrainian troops literally ran empty at the time due to the lack of support. “This allowed the Russians to seize the initiative and they still have it today,” the military expert continues. The media recently spoke of a spring offensive. The term is justified in view of the time of year, but the intensity of the fighting has not changed. “The offensive continues unabated,” says Bühler. But now the pressure on the defenders is apparently increasing: Russia is planning an offensive in the Donbass in order to achieve strategic breakthroughs.
It's a European problem" - Moscow intensifies military operations after Trump announcement
Following his phone call with Putin last week, US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw from the negotiations if a solution was not found soon. “It's a European problem”, said the Republican. This announcement is now apparently leading to the Russian military stepping up its operations, according to an article by expert Jack Watling from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on Tuesday (20 May).
Russia lacks the necessary troop strength for large mechanized units. Instead, the Russian summer offensive will probably have “a soft start, with a steady increase in the number and scale of attacks in an ever-increasing area around the main axis”, according to the analysis. There are signs that this process has already begun. According to the RUSI expert, the main attacks in the summer will again focus on Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk in the Donbass. If the two key cities fall, this could pave the way for Moscow to conquer the entire Donbass.
Arms aid runs out - Ukraine's military fights against time
According to Walting, part of the Russian strategy is to neutralize the Ukrainian drone shields by targeting radar stations and drone pilots with Moscow's troops. Russia is also continuing its attacks on Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure and bases. The Russians are aware that this has an “impact on the civilian population of Ukraine and the international community”, the analysis continues. In the negotiations, the Kremlin will want to convince Europe “that the hinterland is not safe in order to deter European forces from stationing troops in the country.”
Tensions between the USA and NATO partners could also play into Russia's hands and weaken support for Ukraine. “The Ukrainian military therefore faces a challenging four months as US material support comes to an end,” says the RUSI report. Due to Trump's erratic policy, it is difficult to predict what will happen after that. Europe or Ukraine could buy weapons from the US in the future if Washington cuts back its aid. “As long as the US allows re-exports, Europe should be able to cover the majority of Ukraine's needs.” US manufacturers can only export weapons with the approval of the US government.
Hope through pressure? International measures could force the Kremlin into talks
Ukraine has recently managed to largely hold the front line despite difficult circumstances. However, if Russia were to make decisive territorial gains in the summer offensive, this could force Kiev to make a peace offer with unacceptable conditions. “However, if the USA or Europe were to start extending sanctions against Russia, this would be the right time,” says the RUSI expert. Russia's Soviet-era equipment stocks are likely to be exhausted by the fall. Moscow will then be completely dependent on what it can produce.
According to Watling, there is also hope, as Europe can also influence the outcome: The success of the summer offensive depends largely on support from the West. Falling oil prices and aggressive action against Russia's shadow fleet could significantly reduce Moscow's budget for arms production. “If Ukraine can prevent Russia from reaching Donetsk's borders by Christmas and Kiev's international partners continue to consistently weaken the Russian economy”, Moscow could be forced to enter into real negotiations, the expert believes. Another problem for Putin: “Further offensive operations until 2026 will likely require forced mobilization, which is both politically and economically challenging.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Russia is showing restraint in peace negotiations, but is apparently planning a summer offensive on the Donbass in the background.
Moscow - Moscow is continuing to play for time in the negotiations over a ceasefire in the Ukraine war: at a meeting of Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Istanbul last week, the Kremlin stuck to its maximum demands. While diplomatic efforts are therefore stalling, Russia is apparently preparing a military offensive. Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to use this to increase the pressure on Kiev to negotiate.
Why the spring offensive was not an offensive - and what Russia is planning with a summer offensive
From a military point of view, the Russian army has long been on the offensive. This has been going on “at least since the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024”, emphasizes former NATO General Erhard Bühler in his podcast “What to do, General?”. One of the reasons for the offensive was the “months-long interruptions in support for Ukraine, because the US Congress was unable to agree on the continuation of aid deliveries to Ukraine from fall 2023 to around April 2024.”
The Ukrainian troops literally ran empty at the time due to the lack of support. “This allowed the Russians to seize the initiative and they still have it today,” the military expert continues. The media recently spoke of a spring offensive. The term is justified in view of the time of year, but the intensity of the fighting has not changed. “The offensive continues unabated,” says Bühler. But now the pressure on the defenders is apparently increasing: Russia is planning an offensive in the Donbass in order to achieve strategic breakthroughs.
It's a European problem" - Moscow intensifies military operations after Trump announcement
Following his phone call with Putin last week, US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw from the negotiations if a solution was not found soon. “It's a European problem”, said the Republican. This announcement is now apparently leading to the Russian military stepping up its operations, according to an article by expert Jack Watling from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on Tuesday (20 May).
Russia lacks the necessary troop strength for large mechanized units. Instead, the Russian summer offensive will probably have “a soft start, with a steady increase in the number and scale of attacks in an ever-increasing area around the main axis”, according to the analysis. There are signs that this process has already begun. According to the RUSI expert, the main attacks in the summer will again focus on Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk in the Donbass. If the two key cities fall, this could pave the way for Moscow to conquer the entire Donbass.
Arms aid runs out - Ukraine's military fights against time
According to Walting, part of the Russian strategy is to neutralize the Ukrainian drone shields by targeting radar stations and drone pilots with Moscow's troops. Russia is also continuing its attacks on Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure and bases. The Russians are aware that this has an “impact on the civilian population of Ukraine and the international community”, the analysis continues. In the negotiations, the Kremlin will want to convince Europe “that the hinterland is not safe in order to deter European forces from stationing troops in the country.”
Tensions between the USA and NATO partners could also play into Russia's hands and weaken support for Ukraine. “The Ukrainian military therefore faces a challenging four months as US material support comes to an end,” says the RUSI report. Due to Trump's erratic policy, it is difficult to predict what will happen after that. Europe or Ukraine could buy weapons from the US in the future if Washington cuts back its aid. “As long as the US allows re-exports, Europe should be able to cover the majority of Ukraine's needs.” US manufacturers can only export weapons with the approval of the US government.
Hope through pressure? International measures could force the Kremlin into talks
Ukraine has recently managed to largely hold the front line despite difficult circumstances. However, if Russia were to make decisive territorial gains in the summer offensive, this could force Kiev to make a peace offer with unacceptable conditions. “However, if the USA or Europe were to start extending sanctions against Russia, this would be the right time,” says the RUSI expert. Russia's Soviet-era equipment stocks are likely to be exhausted by the fall. Moscow will then be completely dependent on what it can produce.
According to Watling, there is also hope, as Europe can also influence the outcome: The success of the summer offensive depends largely on support from the West. Falling oil prices and aggressive action against Russia's shadow fleet could significantly reduce Moscow's budget for arms production. “If Ukraine can prevent Russia from reaching Donetsk's borders by Christmas and Kiev's international partners continue to consistently weaken the Russian economy”, Moscow could be forced to enter into real negotiations, the expert believes. Another problem for Putin: “Further offensive operations until 2026 will likely require forced mobilization, which is both politically and economically challenging.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
