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Warfare Iran War Thread | US & Israel forces.
- Thread starter Mike1976
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It isn't just the rag-heads, which there are quite the number in Iran, but the ideology they push that acts as a backbone for the regime.
Which is partly why Iran cannot turn into a Libya, Syria, Iraq, etc... and also one of the reasons why removing the IRGC wouldn't create a power vacuum that would allow for a Libyan, Iraqi or Syrian scenario.
When the 'daffis, Saddam and Assad were despots who could only rely on brutality and violence to keep their people in line and insure the continuity of their dynastic monopole on power; the Ayatollahs, while also using violence and brutality to achieve the same thing, benefit from their religious mandate. Yes, they are violent despots who only seek the continuity and preservation of their regime, but! It is not for sake of themselves or the regime, so they say, but for Allah. Going after them is, therefore, inconsequential as they are mere messengers and enforcers of "the Divine".
It is rather amusing, so to speak, that the very thing that oppresses the people of Iran also contributes in guaranteeing their safety would the regime, enforcing "that very thing that oppresses the people of Iran", disappear.
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so then what ?? its interesting to think about your scenario or argument... i mean if theres no way around this situation ... does this mean that the entire region will stay distabilized forever?
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In 2008 the US was after a mid-ranking IRGC officer for actions against US interests. Unable to locate him after months of effort they contacted the Israelis.
Less than a week later the car carrying the officer was ambushed by two motorcyclists. Case of severe lead overdose.
Israel hasn't been involved in the recent rounds of fighting and the number of dead regime figureheads has gone to near zero, imo indicating that any high profile deaths are collateral damage from attacks on installations rather than targeted killings. Whether that means the US can't locate individuals or won't for (political) reasons ...
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The Iranian attacks on shipping show that the blockade and evasion of the Iranian lane is effective. Countering mining operations and AShM/drone attacks periodically multiplies the effectiveness. Iran is being pushed further and further into a corner.
The Hochseeflotte didn't sail out because they thought waiting to fight the Royal Navy for two years was a good idea, but because they were feeling the squeeze of the blockade more and more. "Now or never".
For someone questioning the effectiveness of a blockade, go ask the Confederacy, Napoleonic France, the Cubans or the Japanese.
The Hochseeflotte didn't sail out because they thought waiting to fight the Royal Navy for two years was a good idea, but because they were feeling the squeeze of the blockade more and more. "Now or never".
For someone questioning the effectiveness of a blockade, go ask the Confederacy, Napoleonic France, the Cubans or the Japanese.
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There is a way around the situation. Overthrowing the regime.
I am simply stating that, contrary to the examples I mentioned, doing so will not necessarily achieve the kind of outcome we saw in these countries.
It does not mean, however, that the outcome will be bad. Nor that it will be good. But at least it won't be "that kind" of bad.
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There also is the possibility, or rather high likeliness, that Iran learned a few lessons from the early strikes when it comes to high-profile figures getting picked off like ripe apples on a tree.
That and the fact Iran has seen a significant decrease in target intensity.
When the war started, the US and Israel only had to throw a dart at the map and they were relatively sure to hit something of importance.
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But still, that's not enough. It's not a targeted killing that topples a regime but regime change with locals ready, trained and willing to take over.
Targetted killings including nuclear scientists have been numerous these last year's by Israel and the USA but nothing changes
To topple the regime, you need deep contacts in local army, society, people with influence...
Shutting out Iran completely makes this impossible or at least extremely hard.
Edit: Iran needs a "coup" or an armed takeover by people friendlier to us (not 100% aligned to us automatically)...not this expensive "sound and light" show.
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I would add that some element of surprise wouldn't hurt in taking the initiative and starting an armed takeover to secure armories. That has pretty much been lost by now.
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I have been telling you about this outcome for a few months, but the members of the pro-Trump circlejerk team cannot see the difference between tactical victories and strategy:
www.theatlantic.com
How the U.S. Squandered Its Strategic Advantage
Idle threats and munitions shortages have boxed Trump in.
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Thank heavens that article is behind a paywall. Because every paragraph I read from the Atlantic lowers my IQ and makes me wonder if my Communist Party membership is still in good standing.I have been telling you about this outcome for a few months, but the members of the pro-Trump circlejerk team cannot see the difference between tactical victories and strategy:
How the U.S. Squandered Its Strategic Advantage
Idle threats and munitions shortages have boxed Trump in.
Iran has been crushed and it is getting worse for them every day. As Bessent said, they are already dead but don't know it yet.
And yes....munitions are expended in war. Thanks for the update.
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It’s not about expending ammunition but about replenishing it.
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Lots of stuff like this on social networks, merely highlighting the lack of military culture of these commentators... It is normal to see rust on the hull of a ship that has been deployed for 6 months like the Lincoln. To say the truth, such a long deployment is an achievemet by itself. It needs a capable supply chain to succeed. And I bet the PLAN is taking notice : while certainly the current naval train of the USN is not at the levl it reached at the nd of WW2, it is, in my opinion, not as helpless as some people portray it.
I can't think of any navy capable of deploying a carrier for 6 months (and certainly not our own Charles de Gaulle
), and tthe PLAN is for the moment limited to its own inland sea behind the 1st island barrier.
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Exactly! The Lincoln has been deployed since November IIRC. The PLAN builds a lot of new, shiny ships, but is incapable of meaningfully deploying more than a thousand miles from it's shore and certainly not for months at a time.
Lots of stuff like this on social networks, merely highlighting the lack of military culture of these commentators... It is normal to see rust on the hull of a ship that has been deployed for 6 months like the Lincoln. To say the truth, such a long deployment is an achievemet by itself. It needs a capable supply chain to succeed. And I bet the PLAN is taking notice : while certainly the current naval train of the USN is not at the levl it reached at the nd of WW2, it is, in my opinion, not as helpless as some people portray it.
I can't think of any navy capable of deploying a carrier for 6 months (and certainly not our own Charles de Gaulle
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